Category Archives: Free Gambling Courses

Are casino games beatable?

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Are casino games beatable?

To Stanley Ho and Bob Stupak, all casino games are unbeatable.

Stanley Ho said in a TV interview by reporters, ” All gamblers will lose to me because casino games are our games.”

Bob Stupak said, ” Even a tiny one thousandth percent odd will bankrupt the richest man in the world if enough bets are played.”

To the casinos, all their games are unbeatable including professional poker.

Let’s take a look at a few scenarios to answer this question whether casino games are beatable.

Pofessional Poker and Poker Rooms

Let’s take a look at professional poker and poker rooms.

Many new small casino owners consider poker rooms as their best business. They rake in high hourly commissions. Their returns are possibly the best for any business. To the casino owner, the issue of whether poker game is beatable or unbeatable is irrelevant. The reason is the casino do not book the bets. Players play among themselves. Yet, you have seen the successes of professional poker players. Despite the rake, ten percent of the long term poker players are winners. They pay taxes to the government every year. If this is the scenario, can you imagine the losses sustained by the losers, the remaining 90%. Losers lose to both the casinos and the professionals. Indeed, they are big losers. Can you imagine that. The ugly side of gambling is seen in the losers.

Progressive Jackpot

Now, we take a look at progressive jackpot.

Casino seed the initial payout for jackpot which is just a tiny amount taken from their profits. Then the casino feed the jackpot a tiny percent from their profits. You can actually calculate the zero odd for the jackpot. If nobody hit the jackpot, it will grow to a point where the odd is zero. Beyond that you will have a positive mathematical expectation when you bet on the jackpot. When this scenario happens, you will find professionals enter the game because they are paid more than the odds.
One good historical example is by Stanford Wong in Las Vegas. One day, he declared publicly that the progressive jackpot now offers positive mathematical expectation. So, he was in the game everyday until somebody hit the progressive jackpot. It was said that he hit the jackpot but this information was never verified.
You can see that although Stanford Wong won the jackpot with positive expectation, the casino still consider progressive jackpot unbeatable. The additional money that Stanford Wong won comes from the fellow players who lost badly both to Stanford Wong and the casino.

How casino set table limits to foolproof their business

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Next, consider how casino set table limits to foolproof their business. This is an indirect way of saying, “to make their games unbeatable.” For small tables, it is not neccesary for casino to set low table limits. But they do that all the time. The reason is human and management factor especially errors made by new croupers and pit bosses. The crucial part is the high stake table. I have seen a number of times when player requests for super high stake tables were turned down. The casino ask them to play elsewhere. However, I have seen the same casino open ten high stake tables during the festive seasons.

The reason is very simple. A big loss in a single high stake table during the low season can cause the casino to show a net loss at the end of the day. But during festive season, the casino can open ten high stake tables because there are enough players to average out to ensure a net win for the casino. In other words, the casino wants to make sure that a big win by a player is always at the premium of a big loss by another player.

How casino increase their winning by using counter-measures on winners

Finally, you have seen from my post that you can win 100% of your series playing games with negative expectations. This is shocking to many people but not the casinos. The Las Vegas magazine acknowkedges that there are only 200 players in casino list who won this way. Another large casino told me that there are only 20 out of millions in their list who won this way. They are in their list because they win big. I believe there are many more who win this way but they are not in their list because they win small. Unfortunately, the saying is that there is no way to reverse the casino odds by betting systems. I agree but this argument is irrelevant because players win not by reversing the odds but through the mechanism of variance and ‘not encountered.’

Casino knows that players can win through the mechanism of variance and ‘not encountered.’ Casinos also know that they can only win peanuts unless their capital is larger than the whole casino. Casinos are aware that their method of play is not scalable. If you attempt to scale, the variance inherent in the game of chance will invariably bust your bankroll. So, the casino use counter-measures to get you to make your own mistakes. According to the casino, their counter-measures are very effective and work almost 100% of the time.

If winning becomes too easy like counting cards in blackjack, casino will change their rules.

In conclusion, all casino games are unbeatable but casino rules especially those of big casinos allow professionals to win long term at the premium of those who lost.

KEYPOINTS

1. Professional gamblers can win long term irrespective of whether the casino games have negative or positive mathematical expectations.

2. Casino consider that all their games are unbeatable but acknowledges that professional gamblers can win long term.

3. If winning becomes too easy, casinos will change their rules.

are casino games beatable

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PASCAL PINBALL MACHINE

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PASCAL PINBALL MACHINE

I call this Pascal Pinball Machine for a good reason. I have seen these pinball machines made by students during school exhibitions several times in the past. Although the decisions are random, the outcomes are orderly. The significance of this post is to illustrate a point that the randomness always operate within a well-defined rule. In this case, the random decisions of the pinball are always defined by the numbers in the Pascal Triangle. You can use this concept to create strategies to win in gambling.

pinball machine

pinball machine

The above picture shows a type of pinball machine that you can build yourself. You will need 10 finishing nails, 5 small cups, a wooden board and a pinball. A pinball can be a marble, ball bearing, golf ball, tennis ball or even table-tennis ball. Generally, I prefer ball bearing. They are heavy, round, smooth and cheap. You can choose the size you want. You can buy the ball bearing from any hardware shop. Hammer the nails half way into the wooden board in the triangular pattern shown, with one nail in the top row, two in the second row, three in the third row and so on, and with enough space for the pinball to go through in between the nails. To make it more user friendly, some pinball machines are enhanced with a spring pedal at the left or right side of the wooden board to spring up the pinball. You can further enhance the pinball machines at the edges and corners with rubber cushions.

To operate the pinball machine, elevate the board at a slight angle about 30 degrees and release the pinball from the top so that it hits the top nail right at the centre. The pinball will be deflected either left or right with equal probability by the first nail. It will then continue falling and hit one of the nails in the second row. In a similar manner, the pinball will be deflected either left or right around the nail.

Because you are building the pinball machine manually, your hand skill is not perfect, so the pinball machine has to be biased in some way. However, you can assume that the pinball machine is fair, unbiased and crafted to perfection for the sake of simplicity.

The result is that the pinball follows a random path, deflecting off one pin in each of the four rows of pins, and ending up in one of the cups at the bottom. The various possible paths are shown in the picture above.

How many random paths are there through your pinball machine, and what are they?

The answer is 16. The mathematical explanation is:

The first row has one pin. So, there are two possible paths for the pinball to go through the first row.

The second row has two pins. Since what happens in the second row is completely independent of what happened in the first row, the number of possible paths the pinball could travel from the top through the second row is (2 x 2) = 4 .

It works by enhancing the blood viagra from canada circulation to remove the blood stasis, with its unique feature of detoxifying and sterilizing, it can kill various bacteria and virus, it is a natural medicine with no side-effects, majoring in the treatment of males who face difficulty in sustaining or attaining erectile stage during sexual activity. It has announced a medicine with 80% success rate. buy cheap viagra http://www.donssite.com/truckphoto/Tractor_pulls_Fergus_Truck_Show.htm Communication is a key best buy for viagra to any issue discussion. So, go & come out from impotence issues have got an viagra cipla effective remedy in the long run. The third row has three pins. For similar reason, the number of possible paths completed from the top through the third row is (2 x 2 x 2) = 8.

The fourth row has four pins so the number of possible paths from the top through the fourth row is (2 x 2 x 2 x 2) = 16.

If you drop 16 pinballs into the top of your machine and repeat that event one million times, what is the average number of pinballs per event that will fall into each cup at the bottom? The answer, from left to right, shown in our pinball machine picture above is 1-4-6-4-1. The picture below is known as Pascal Triangle.

pascal triangle

pascal triangle

If you superimpose Pascal Triangle on top of the pinball machine then you can see the corresponding attributes between the two: Each number of Pascal Triangle represents the number of distinct paths that a pinball can take to arrive at that point in the pinball machine.

Pascal Triangle is very useful for analyzing the pinball machine. You have seen the first five rows. Can you see the pattern and guess what the next row of numbers is?

For now, you should be able to appreciate that Pascal Triangle is an orderly description of the outcome of a series of completely random events. Because the pinball has to follow the rules of random decisions, mathematically you can extrapolate the Pascal Triangle to infinity. After you have understood the predictability of pascal triangle in an orderly manner, you can then proceed to test the hypothesis on whether your pinball machine is biased. You do it statistically. You test your sample at 95% confidence interval. You can do the calculation by referring to the statistic tables or you can even do the calculation by using the statistic software.

When you gamble in the casino, always remember that there is orderliness within the random decisions. Random decisions are not random. They have to follow the rules of Pascal Triangle. You can create strategies to take advantage of this orderliness to win in gambling.

KEYPOINTS

1. Rule of Nature is always orderly.
2. Randomness always operates within a well-defined rule.
3. Orderliness and randomness always work hand in hand. Take advantage of them to win in gambling.


Gambling, Dice Theory, Blaise Pascal and Chevalier De Mere

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Gambling, Dice Theory, Blaise Pascal and Chevalier De Mere

Archeologists have discovered dice several thousand years ago. However, modern dice games only grew popular in the middle ages. Traditionally, the chances of winning in gambling were very much evaluated with a combination of wishful thinking as well as some sort of logical reasoning. The logical reasoning may be correct or it may be flawed. The logical reasoning may be derived from empirical observation or mathematics or even both.

dice theory

Historically, the experience of Chevalier de Mere is a landmark case to illustrate this logical reasoning in the dice theory.

Chevalier de Mere was a mid-seventeenth century high-living nobleman and gambler who attempted to make money gambling with dice. Probability theory had not yet been developed during that period, but Chevalier de Mere made money by betting that he could roll at least one 6 on four rolls of one die. Empirical experience led him to believe that he would win more times than he would lose with this bet. In other words, if a six appear within the first four rolls of one die, Chevalier de Mere win the bet. If no six appear within the first four rolls, he loses the bet. Today we know that the probability of winning this bet is 1 – (5/6)4, or 51.8%.

dice theory

When folks would no longer bet on this proposition with Chevalier de Mere, he created a new proposition. He began to bet he would get a total of 12 (or a double 6) on twenty-four rolls of two dice. This seemed like a good bet, but he began losing money on it. That year was around 1654. Chevalier de Mere suffered severe financial losses for assessing incorrectly his chances of winning in this proposition of the dice game. Contrary to the ordinary gambler, he pursued the cause of his failure with the help of Blaise Pascal. Together with Pierre de Fermat, a fellow mathematician of Blaise Pascal, the trio became famous because in the process they had sown the seeds in the development of the modern theory of probability. Let us take a look at what happened.

First proposition: Roll a single die 4 times and bet on getting a six.

Remember the dice has only six numbers. Not two or seven or ten. The base of a die is six.

Rolling a single die once leads to precisely one of 6 possible outcomes: Exactly one of the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 will be rolled. The die is described as a fair die if each of these outcomes is equally likely. A fair die has equal outcome. On the contrary, a distorted die has unequal outcome. A distorted die is bias. Players of dice games usually assume that the dice they are using are fair. So let us assume this too.

If you roll a die 4 times, then the total number of all possible outcomes is

6 x 6 x 6 x 6 = 1296

Out of these there are

5 x 5 x 5 x 5 = 625

outcomes with not a single 6 in them.

Thus, if you bet on getting at least one 6 when rolling a die 4 times, there are

625 possibilities of losing, and
1296 – 625 = 671 possibilities of winning

This means that your chances of winning with this game are higher than our chances of losing. So, Chevalier de Mere is correct in evaluating his chances of winning.

(Note: Let’s take a look at another argument. The chance of getting a 6 in a single throw is 1 out of 6. Therefore, the chance of getting a 6 in 4 rolls is 4 times 1 out of 6. That is 2 out of 3. This mathematical reasoning is wrong. Can you figure it out yourself why it is wrong. Hint: Read Chevalier de Mere’s proposition again. He said he could roll one six on four roll of one die.)

dice theory

Second proposition: Roll two dice 24 times and bet on getting a double six.
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He assessed his chances of winning as follows. The chance of getting a double six in one roll is 1 out of 36. Therefore, the chances of getting a double six in 24 rolls is 24 times 1 out of 36; i.e. 2 out of 3.

To his painful surprise the Chevalier ended up loosing badly with the second gamble. He was desparate for an explanation, and so he sought help from one of the great thinkers of his time, Blaise Pascal (1623-1662). After a careful analysis, Pascal was able to point out Chevalier’s error.

Rolling two dice once leads to one of 36 possible outcomes, namely all possible outcomes of rolling die number 1 combined with all possible outcomes of rolling die number two. Thus, if you roll two dice 24 times, then the total number of possible outcomes is

36 x 36 x … x 36 (36 to the power 24)

which is approximately 22,452,257,707,350,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.

Out of these there are

35 x 35 x … x 35 (35 to the power 24)

which is approximately 11,419,131,242,070,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 outcomes with no double 6.

Thus, if you gamble on getting at least one double 6 when rolling two dice 24 times, there are approximately

11,419,131,242,070,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 possibilities of losing, and
22,452,257,707,350,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
minus
11,419,131,242,070,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 = 11,033,126,465,280,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
possibilities of winning

Pascal figured that the probability of not rolling a total of 12 in twenty-four rolls is (35/36)24, or about 50.9%. Hence, in the long run, this would be a losing proposition for Chevalier de Mere.

This means that the chances of winning with this proposition are lower than the chances of losing, as the Chevalier De Mere learnt the dice theory the hard way.

dice theory

Pascal got interested in analyzing other gambling games, and got Pierre de Fermat to work with him. In the process he discovered a fundamental principle for assessing the probability for a certain event, amongst a collection of possible events, to occur. This fundamental principle is just as valid now as it was then. It is broadly used and constitutes a landmark point in the development of the theory of probability. It can be said that the formal study of probability was launched by two mathematicians and a gambler. Not surprisingly, Pascal’s Triangle is a useful tool in probability theory.

Finally, please be aware that logical reasoning in gambling is very often flawed. In professional gambling, you need to have a flare in mathematics to do well.

KEYPOINTS

1. The keypoint to learn here is that logical reasoning very often is flawed.

2. In professional gambling, the basic requirement is a flare in mathematics.


PASCAL TRIANGLE IN GAMBLING PART 2

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PASCAL TRIANGLE IN GAMBLING PART 2

Unless you master pascal triangle, it is unlikely that you can be a good gambler. You must master pascal triangle if you want to be a good gambler. Pascal triangle gives you the structure to win yet stay away from gambling tilt.

Pascal Triangle is a marvel that develops from a very basic simple formula. Pascal triangle became famous because of many of its patterns.

Before you start looking at patterns, just learn how to write your own pascal triangle. This is for those who do not have flare in mathematics.

Pascal Triangle is formed by starting with an apex of 1. The first row is counted as row zero. Every number below in the triangle is the sum of the two numbers diagonally above it to the left and the right, with positions outside the triangle counting as zero.

pascal triangle

pascal triangle

Now, you may take a look at patterns within the pascal triangle.

PATTERN 1

General patterns found within Pascal Triangle

Heads or Tails, Even or Odd, Black or Red, Big or Small, Banker or Player.

Pascal Triangle can show you how many ways heads and tails can combine. You can then use the pascal triangle to see the odds or probability of any combination.

pascal triangle

For example, if you toss a coin three times, there is only one combination that will give you three heads (HHH), but there are three combinations that will give two heads and one tail (HHT, HTH, THH), also three that give one head and two tails (HTT, THT, TTH) and one for all Tails (TTT). This is the pattern “1,3,3,1” in Pascal Triangle in row 3.

You are assuming that the orders are the same. In other words, (HHT, HTH, THH), (HTH, HHT, THH) and (HTH, THH, HHT) are the same. Bear in mind that in actual gambling they are not the same. You have to make adjustment for that.

Example: What is the probability of getting exactly two heads with 4 coin tosses?

There are 1+4+6+4+1 = 16 (or 2 to the power 4=16) possible results, and 6 of them give exactly two heads. So the probability is 6/16, or 37.5%. Why 37.5%. Why not 50% since two heads out of four. Try to figure it out yourself. (Hint: The rules here is different from the rules in gambling. Here, you win only when the outcome is two heads. You lose when the outcome is one head, three heads and four heads.)

You have seen that Pascal triangle is constructed very simply—each number in the triangle is the sum of the two numbers immediately above it. It is also assumed that you now know how to construct pascal triangle with ease.

Pascal triangle is very useful for finding the probability of events where there are only two possible outcomes. This includes tossing a coin where the outcomes are either head or tail. In mini-dice and Tai-Sai, you have big or small. In roulette, you have black or red, big or small, even or odd. In baccarat, you have banker or player.

For example, if you bet three times in baccarat, there are eight (2x2x2 or 2 to the power 3) possibilities:

BBB BBP BPB PBB PPB PBP BPP PPP

If you look at Row 3 of the triangle, you can see the numbers 1,3,3,1. This tells you that there is only one way of obtaining all BANKERS or all PLAYERS, but three ways of obtaining two BANKERS and one PLAYERS, or two PLAYERS and one BANKER. Translated to probabilities, the chances of the possible outcomes are:

3B—1/8 (one in eight) 2B1P—3/8 2P1B—3/8 3P—1/8 (one in eight)

Refer to Pascal triangle again, and take a look at row 4. Looking at Row 4, you can see that for a set of four bets, one PLAYER and three BANKER is four times as common as having FOUR BANKER and no PLAYER, while a set of four bets with two BANKERS and two PLAYERS are six times as common. There is only one chance in 16 (2 to the power 4) of a set of four having all BANKERS or all PLAYERS. And so on.

COMBINATIONS

The pascal triangle also shows you how many combinations of objects are possible.

Example: You placed 16 bets. How many times would you win only three bets and lost 13 bets? This is a typical gambling scenario.

Answer: go down to row 16 (the top row is 0), and then along 3 places and the value there is your answer, 560.

pascal triangle

PATTERN 2

Patterns found within Diagonals

pascal triangle

The first diagonal is, of course, just “1”s, and the next diagonal has the Counting Numbers (1,2,3, 4,5,6,7,etc).

The third diagonal has the triangular numbers 1,3,6,10,15,21

The fourth diagonal has the tetrahedral numbers 1,4,10,20,35.
The fifth diagonal has the pentagonal numbers.
The sixth diagonal has the hexagonal numbers.

The Fibonacci Series is also found within the diagonals in the Pascal’s Triangle.

The numbers on diagonals of the triangle add to the Fibonacci series, as shown below.

pascal triangle

pascal triangle fibonacci

I will discuss the significance of fibonacci numbers in gambling, nature and life in a separate post.

PATTERN 3

Patterns found within horizontals

pascal triangle horizontal

Notice that each horizontal rows add up to powers of 2 (i.e., 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, etc).

The horizontal rows represent powers of 11 (1, 11, 121, 1331, etc).

Adding any two successive numbers in the diagonal 1-3-6-10-15-21-28… results in a perfect square (1, 4, 9, 16, etc).

PATTERN 4

When the first number to the right of the 1 in any row is a prime number, all numbers in that row are divisible by that prime number. Try it yourself to appreciate.

PATTERN 5

Pattern 5 is combinatoric mathematics. Combinatorics is the science that studies the numbers of different combinations, which are groupings of numbers. Combinatorics is often part of the study of probability and statistics.

Fractal is a term coined by Benoit Mandelbrot in 1975, referring to objects built using recursion, where some aspect of the limiting object is infinite and another is finite, and where at any iteration, some piece of the object is a scaled down version of the previous iteration. A good example of geometric fractal is the Sierpinski Triangle which is an ever repeating pattern of triangles.

sierpinski triangle

PATTERN 6

Pattern 6 is the CATALAN NUMBERS

The Catalan Numbers are a sequence of numbers which show up in many contexts. They were discovered by Leonhard Euler when he was attempting to find a general formula to express the number of ways to divide a polygon with N sides into triangles using non-intersecting diagonals . The Catalan Numbers’ correspondence to the division of polygons is shown below:

pascal catalan

You can see in next Pascal Triangle that each Catalan number is the sum of specific Pascal numbers.(© Dirk Laureyssens, 2004)
I will discuss the significance of catalan numbers in computer science and programming in a separate post.

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Gambling FAQ, Frequently Asked Questions Part 1

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Gambling FAQ, Frequently Asked Questions Part 1

This GAMBLING FAQ post is my response to the keywords used by searchers to visit this blog, gamblinghelp.biz. I have re-phrased the keywords for clarity of presentation.
Sixty percent of the traffic came from United States, 30% from UK. About 9% from Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Spain, Sweden, Hong Kong , Korea and Japan. Surprisingly, less than 1% came from Malaysia and Singapore.

1. What is the purpose of this blog, gamblinghelp.biz?

In a nutshell, gamblinghelp.biz promotes responsible gambling. Gamblinghelp provides free gambling courses to help gamblers in recreational gambling, professional gambling, quit gambling.

The goal is to improve peoples’ life with or without gambling.

I repeat “improve peoples’ life with or without gambling”.

2. Can you tell me more about the late Arthur Irwin Bruce, his auto-biography and the gambling system he played?

It is generally acknowledged that Arthur Irwin Bruce is one of the most talented professional gambler during his era. Arthur Irwin Bruce was a dental technician before he took up professional gambling. He died a tragic death when he was shot by his step-son.

Basically, he played a modified form of split labourche. His remarkable success resulted in all the five largest casinos in UK barred him from play. He then set up sixty schools throughout United States to teach people how to gamble. It was said that the fund to set up the sixty schools came from his casino winnings.

You may have seen his video presentation where he demonstrated his play known as the midas touch system. He said his win rate is 100%. However, I found that his video demonstration is incomplete. He did not explain whether he took loss when losing streak hit his bankroll limit. In particular, he did not explain how he handle the big numbers in his series.

In my opinion, you can win 100% of the time if you know how to use HP Johnson Guaranteed System to split the big numbers.

Read more

How The Late Arthur Irwin Bruce was Barred from the Five Largest Casinos in the UK

3. Who is HP Johnson? We want to know more about his work.

HP Johnson is a professional roulette player. His remarkable success is documented in the method he invented. He claimed the success rate is 100%. Loss of a series is not encountered in several years of play in international casinos throughout the world. Stakes never go higher than what he capped.

He described his HP Johnson Guaranteed Roulette as 100% success rate. Not a single losing series. He personally guarantee your success but wants 10% of the profit. I have tested, modified and played HP Johnson system for many years on and off. My result is also 100%. Very often, I modify his sytem or combine with other systems, the result is still 100%. Indeed, it is the greatest system I have ever come across. Simply awesome, amazing, fantastic! No words can describe. However, HP Johnson never became famous. Not many people have heard of him.

Unlike Arthur Irwin Bruce who became famous because of three major events that drew public attention. First, he was barred from the five largest casinos in UK. Second, he set up 60 Gambling Schools throughout United States to teach peole how to win with his Midas Touch System. Third, he died a tragic death when he was shot by his step-son.

Read more

How I won US$350 despite losing 31 times

4. Can you tell me more about the psychodynamic theory of gambling?

Psychodynamic theory of gambling can be used to explain why gambling is highly addictive. The addictive effects arise as a result of the psychological flicks created by win-lose situations as well as misses and near misses. Psychodynamic theory can also be used to explain gambling tilt. An important application of psychodynamic theory is cognitive behaviour therapy used by psychiatrists and counsellors to treat compulsive gamblers. Many professional gamblers also know how to use psychodynamic theory to help them to stay off gambling tilt.

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PSYCHODYNAMIC THEORY OF GAMBLING TILT http://www.gamblinghelp.biz/wpblog/?p=961

5. Who is Sigmund Freud and who is Carl Jung?

Both are researchers and practising psychiatrists. In short you can consider Sigmund Freud as the father of psychodynamics and Carl Jung as the top disciple or follower of Sigmund Freud. Their theories can be used to explain the behaviour of gamblers.

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PSYCHODYNAMIC THEORY OF GAMBLING TILT

6. Who are the social scientists on gambling?

When social scientists do research work on any topic, they generally use a qualitative research methodology. The three most popular methods are grounded theory, ethnography and narrative readings. Ground theory is the brainchild of Glaser and Strauss. However, Hochschild, the emeritus professor of sociolgy from the Universty of California, Berkeley introduced “emotion work” to explain gambling tilt.

Read more

Social Science Theory of Gambling Tilt

http://www.gamblinghelp.biz/wpblog/?p=951

7. What about ego and gambling?

Ego is one of the important elements of psychodynamic theory. Ego and gambling is primarily the reason why all gamblers go on tilt.

Read more

GAMBLING TILT PART 1

HOW PROFESSIONALS STAY OFF GAMBLING TILT

FIVE TIPS TO AVOID GAMBLING TILT

FURTHER DISCUSSION ON GAMBLING TILT

Gamblinghelp FAQ

thumbnail Gamblinghelp FAQ

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How to track odds in baccarat and other common casino games

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How to track odds in baccarat and other common casino games

The assumption of this post is that you are familiar with third card rules in baccarat. If you are not familiar you have to check out on the rules first then come back and read the post.

The Casino Odds for Baccarat are given as follows. For player bet, the house edge is 1.36%. For banker bets, the house edge is 1.18%. Form tie bets, the house edge is 14.4% (if the casino pays 8 to 1). Some casinos pay 9 to 1 for tie bet. In that case, the odds drop to 4.84% for a eight deck shoe.

You can also look at it another way. For every 100 times that player wins, banker wins 103 times. Banker get taxed five times. Therefore, banker theoretically wins 98 times. In other words for every 100 bets, if you play banker you lose two bets, if you play player you lose three bets.

However, if you are observant enough, you will notice that in baccarat you can have symmetrical play when two cards end the game and asymmetrical play when the third card drawing rules end the game. Banker has no advantage over player in two card symmetrical play. Yet 5% is taken away on winning banker bets. In symmetrical play you breakeven by betting player as the house odd is zero.

However, banker has 15.7% edge over player in third card asymmetrical play. If you are counting cards for tie bets, you should be able to tell when the remaining deck is dense in small cards and when they are dense in high cards. In high cards you should expect symmetrical play because both player and banker bets stand on points seven, eight and nine. In low cards especially in situations where the chances of forming four and five points are high, banker has substantial edge over player because of the high incidence of third card play. Bankers’ greatest edge comes mainly from third card rules especially on four and five points, and a little advantage for three and six points. Third card play gives banker 15.7% advantage whereas you pay only 5% commission.

I repeat third card play gives banker 15.7% advantage whereas you pay only 5% commission. Your edge over the casino is 15.7% minus 5% equal 10.2%.
However, the house edge over banker is 5% in symmetrical play. Since symmetrical play happens 90% of the time, overall casino has the edge over banker bet at 1.18%
To win in banker bets you must create strategy to avoid banker bets in symmetrical play. Notice that in symmetrical play, the house odds on player bet is always zero. Therefore, you cannot win money on player bet but you can take advantage of player bet for casino rewards.

You have seen how the casino management manipulate the rules of play in baccarat to produce a small, yet measurable advantage for the house for both player and banker bets, and a steep jump in advantage for tie bets. The third card rules are introduced so that banker wins 50.68% of all non-tie hands and the player wins 49.32%. The difference between the two 50.68 minus 49.32 is 1.36, hence a 1.36 house edge against the “player” bet.

So why then does the banker bet offer no real house advantage if it wins 50.68% or more than half of the time? Well, casinos are definitely aware of this advantage. If they allow the game to be played while giving up an edge to gamblers, the game would not be around anymore. Casinos have taken this skewed even-odd discrepancy into account, and made adjustments to tilt the advantage back into their favour by way of a 5% commission on winning banker bets. The banker bet odds can be calculated as follows. Let’s say you are betting 100 times or 100%. Winning banker bets are taxed 5%, so you will win 0.95 for every one unit wagered. Expecting to win 50.68% of the time, multiply 0.95 by 50.68 and you get 48.14. You still can expect to lose 49.32, and the difference is 1.18, resulting in a 1.18% house advantage.

Tie bets happen approximately 9.55% of the time, but the true odds of a tie bet are 9.47 to 1. Extending 9.55 into 100 gives you 10.47 and considering that you will get back your original bet , the correct odds are 9.47 to 1. So, when you win a tie bet, you should be paid 10.47 units, but you are only paid 9 units. The difference or shortfall is 1.47. This shortfall of 1.47 out of 10.47 gives you the house edge of 14.4% advantage. You might be tempted by the 8 to 1 payout, but the odds on this bet are unfavourable compared to the banker and player bets. Mathematical expectation shows that despite winning banker bet being taxed 5% as commission, banker bet still offers the most favourable odds in baccarat, and over time you can expect to lose less by playing more banker.

The tie bet has been known to pay 9 to 1 at some casinos. For example Binion’s Horseshoe in Las Vegas used to, and the Bodog online casino pays 9 to 1. The expected value on the tie bet if it pays 9 to 1 is -4.844% in a 8 deck shoe.

The standard baccarat offered in Resort World Genting and Resort World Sentosa is B6 baccarat. In B6 baccarat, also known as no commision baccarat, the house does not collect the 5% commission. To compensate for that the house pays half the bet when banker wins on six points. Half the bet is equivalent to ten times of 5% or 50%. In other words, for each time that banker wins on six points, the house collects ten times commission. And, of course six points win more often than five, four, three, two and one points. In effect, the banker odds rise substantially to 1.69, much higher than the player odds. If you translate this back into commission for every winning banker bet, this works out to 7% commssion, an alarming 40% increase in commission. The player odds remain the same at 1.36. In contrast to traditional baccarat, you can expect to lose less by playing more player in B6 baccarat.

If possible try to avoid B6 Baccarat or 7% baccarat, as I like to call it. Play only 5% traditional baccarat.

Casino Odds for Roulette, Mini-dice, Tai-Sai, Casino War, Blackjack, Pontoon, modified Texas Holdem

In single zero roulette, the odds for even-odd bet is 2.56. Here even-odd refers to big-small, black-red, and even-odd, not just even-odd alone. If you play single number, you will notice that winning bet get paid 36 times. This is a great deal by casino standards because you get a leverage of 36 times yet the odds remain at 2.56. You can compare with the following Texas Holdem poker bet to see for yourself.

Some casinos offer a modified form of Texas Holdem Poker where the the house book all the bets. The house do not collect commission. I noticed that the house also offer bonus bets. For example if you bet 100 bonus bet, and you get two aces, the house get the remaining two aces, you will be paid 100 times or 10,000. For all the four aces to come together your probability is 13x13x13x13. If you just compare this with the four digit lottery or magnum, you will notice that if you win the four digit first prize your probalility is much lower at 10x10x10x10. If you bet 100, you are paid between 200,000 to 300,000. Just compare 10,000 with 200,00 to 300,000 and figure out what you are doing. I do not wish to explain or elaborate any further.

In Tai Sai and mini-dice, the odds for even-odd bet is 2.8

In casino war the odd is 3.5%

In pontoon, the odd is 0.6%

In blackjack, where you are allowed to double on any two cards and the dealer’s hole card is not an ace, the odd is 0.2%. (I played this game in Stratosphere LasVegas before for one week and won US$500)

In the type of blackjack you see in Resort World Genting and Resort World Sentosa, the odd is 0.8% assuming you play the basic strategy. This is how you work out the odds in blackjack. If you play ‘mimic the dealer’ you will bust 28% of the time. The house advantage comes from double bust. So, double bust gives the house 8% edge. But the house compensates the player by giving back 3 to 2 for blackjack. Player blackjack advantage accounts for 2.5%. So, mimic the dealer gives the house 5.5% edge. Basic strategy on standing, doubling and splitting reduces the house edge to 0.8%.

In blackjack the odds fluctuate in both directions depending on the cards on the remaining deck. Hence, it is important to track the odds. So, you can assume for example the odds are 0.8 plus or minus 2.8. This equal to +2 to minus 3.6. Counting card will tell you when you are playing with 2% advantage and when you are playing with 3.6% disadvantage. No joke 3.6% disadvantage. Quit and run from this shoe! Counting cards tell you when to bet higher and how much in proportion to your advantage (Kelly’s criteria). Counting cards also tell you how to deviate from basic strategy according to your count.

Poker odds and other casino advantage play like excessive seeding in progressive jackpots, casino promotions, casino tournaments, casino match vouchers, casino junket programs, sports betting are addressed in separate posts.

KEY POINTS
1. Know the odds in all the games you play.
2. In baccarat, banker does not have any edge over player in symmetrical two card play yet have to pay 5% on commission on winning bets.
3. Bet player in symmetrical play gives you zero odds. Your advantage comes from casino rewards if there is any.
4. In 5% baccarat, banker has a 15.7 % edge over player in third card asymmetrical play.
5. Bankers’ greatest edge comes mainly from third card rules on four and five points, and a little from three and six points. Third card play gives banker 15.7% advantage whereas you pay only 5% commission.
6. This situation of third card play can be exploited to win on banker bets.
7. Whenever possible, monitor and track the odds. Odd tracking is your key to advantage play and winning. This works in tie bets in baccarat, banker bets to exploit third card play and counting cards in blackjack.
8. If possible avoid B6 baccarat or 7% baccarat and play only 5% baccarat.
9. Avoid games where you are unable to track odds.

baccarat odds

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How to win in regular casino games.

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How to win in regular casino games

By regular casino games, I mean baccarat, roulette, Mini-dice and Tai-Sai because these are the games I usually play. I play only even odd bets. I prefer baccarat because the game is faster.

When gamblers think about how to win in regular casino games, their approach always come under lady luck, gambling systems or money management.
In this post we will discuss only gambling system. What is so great about gambling system. In a nutshell, gambling system is nothing great. It is just like doing business in an unstable environment. It is difficult to make money in an unstable business environment. Similarly, it is difficult win in games of negative expectations.
There are two schools of thought in gambling. Those who believe games with negative expectations are beatable. And those who believe that games with negative expectations are unbeatable. Putting it another way, you may like to know how you can win in games with negative expectations. You can rely on these two concepts to win. They are ‘smart chasing of losses’ and ‘not encountered’. Whenever you analyse any systems and you find that these two key points are not adequately addressed, my advice is to drop the system. Just assume it is a scam.

Regular casino games are the bread and butter of casino owners. As such, it is not easy to win in these games. Let us assume that you want to beat the casino in even-odd games. I have mentioned in my previous posts that it is possible or rather controversial. All those winning strategies I have described are excluded because they are not regular play. These strategies are bet banker only, tie bets in baccarat, counting card in blackjack, bias wheel in roulettes, casino promotions, casino tournaments, match play coupons and so on. Once again I would like to emphasize that to win in regular casino games is not easy because you are breaking into the rice bowl of the casino owners. However, the casino is not worried. you will find out why.

It is like saying you can run 100 meters under 10 seconds. There are very few people who can do that. Another analogy is to say that you can live until 100 years old. Of course, a few can live up to that age, but most won’t live that long. Similarly, there are very few people who can win in games with negative expectations. This explains why casino reap astronomical profits from these negative expectaion games. Because a few gamblers can only win peanuts, casino winning from other gamblers can easily cover for your peanuts.

You need to understand a few concepts before I can go on. Pure theorists, mathematicians and statisticians claimed that negative expectation games are unbeatable. They based their assumption on infinite play. In my opinion, this assumption is flawed.

I will show you why. Time in universe is infinite. Our solar system is not infinite. Planet earth is not infinite. Our civilization is only about 6000 years. Human life span is not infinite. So that assumption is flawed and therefore you would be able to beat the casino in their regular games.

You will win when you creatively combine ‘smart chasing of losses‘ with ‘not encountered‘. However, it is not easy. Chances are you will win only peanuts. Chances are many of you will lose a lot when you make mistakes. So, you rarely see players playing this way or winning this way. Winning in games with negative expectation relies on the twin principle of ‘smart chasing of losses’ and ‘not encountered’. ‘Smart chasing of losses’ is the concept I invented to differentiate it from irresponsible chasing of losses. ‘Not encountered’ is the concept I borrowed from HP Johnson Guaranteed system.

Not encountered works because we do not play infinite number of hands in a lifetime. However, empirical observation shows these players are net losers long term due to mistakes and casino counter-measures. It is like saying salaried workers are in debt despite their monthly income. It is not that the system did not work. It is just that it is a poor man’s salary. It is a matter of time that the poor man end up broke.

Even if they have succeeded in gambling systems, they are still failures. I will show you why. The concept of not encountered are highly elusive. Let’s get started. Please bear with me for a while. Imagine you can play Martindale or double up to 80x. Do you think you will lose in a lifetime of play. My answer is definitely no. However, if you project 2 to the power 80 to infinity then of course you will lose your series which is supposed to be not encountered. You will noticed that there are two parameters that explains ‘not encountered’.

The characteristics of the martindale system are
1. Stakes get very high very fast but you make a fast come back.
2. When you are lucky you are just winning one unit.
3. As long as you hit your single win you are ahead.
4. Losing streak never last more than half an hour.

However, you know that this does not work and Martindale is historically responsible for the suicidal rates in the French Riveria.

So, here is the magic. You do not need to be ahead within half an hour. You can work out your gambling plan such that at worse you will be ahead after one week of losses.
You narrow down your bet spread and eliminate all the high stakes in the Martindale series. You want to maintain your ability to win without having to win more times just like Martindale.
HP Johnson Guaranteed System qualify for this. The system passed the problem area to the time parameter so that you always play at comfortable levels. Your worst losing streak theoretically will last only one week. In other words, you convert half an hour into one week, and your huge imaginary bankroll becomes a moderate manageable practical winning bankroll. In several years of actual casino play, HP Johnson encountered three days of losses only once before he recovered on the fourth day. I also encountered three days of losses once before I recovered my losses on the fourth day. HP Johnson played six series simultaneously, so do I. Remember, it is not necessary to conclude the series as long as you are ahead. Also, remember to re-balance your scales every now and then.

Enjoy your reward point, win as little as you can and make sure you are immune to gambling tilt. I usually chase after casino rewards which include free rooms, free foods and free shows when I play this way.
You can never lose this way because it is very much like a gambling plan at 2 to the power 80 at maximum half hour but you translate it into much lower stakes and bet spread at maximum one week of smart chasing of losses.

After winning for some time, the player gets greedy and impatient. He will tell you that now he is doubling his income. He thought that the not encountered is something like 2 to the power 79. It is not. It is now 2 to the power 40. So, he doubles his rate of income again and thought that his Martindale string is now 2 to the power 78. . The correct answer is more likely 2 to the power 20. He repeated his winning streak and thought that he is invincible. Finally, his win rate is fast but his string is now 2 to the power 10. Casino can easily get you at ten losses in a row and the poor misguided gambler lost back all his winnings possibly within six months. Very likely he would also have lost his bankroll. This scenario can be considered as a subtle form of gambling tilt.

Note: This player is still playing the HP Johnson Guaranteed System but at much higher stake. I am using the martindale analogy to illustrate to you how this imaginary player lose back his winnings.

It need not happen this way. It may happen indirectly depending on the gambling system you play. You deviate or go on gambling tilt in certain subtle ways such that your play is no longer ‘not encountered’.

This is precisely the reason I do not recommend playing this way if you are going after money as a source . It is acceptable to play this way to brag or for self-gratification, to show off. It is important to understand this concept.
You can see that this method of play is not suitable as a source of money. The unstable nature will somehow make you lose your money back. Because this method of play is not scalable, you must be willing to play as small as possible at all times and win peanuts. Your peanuts are like what Neil Armstrong said when he landed on the moon, “A Small Step for a Man, A Big Leap for Mankind.

If you want more you have to play games with positive expectations.

KEY POINTS
1. Winning peanuts in regular casino games is easy if you can handle smart chasing of losses, not encountered and gambling tilt.
2. The concept of ‘not encountered’ include two parameters, bet spread and time. HP Johnson Guaranteed System optimize both parameters extremely well.
3. Winning in regular casino games is not scalable and you must win as little as you can.
4. Play to win as little as possible just to brag, self-gratification and show off.
5. Winning in regular casino games is a small step for a man, a big leap in mankind.

win casino games

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Dr Allan Wilson and the Challenger Star System

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Dr Allan Wilson and the Challenger Star System

Dr. Allan Wilson authored a book “the casino gamblers’ guide”. Published in 1965, Dr. Allan Wilson’s analysed the various intricate betting systems. His views about betting systems can be summarized as follows. I have included my response to his views.

1. Dr Allan Wilson said he had read a vast amount of literature on the subject of gambling, as the references list indicates. In none of this literature had he ever read a verifiable account of a successful betting system.

My answer: Every system has its strength and weakness. A good strategy uses the strength of a combination of systems. A good strategy avoid the weakness of each individual system.

2. In a period exceeding ten years, Dr Allan Wilson had spent an accumulated time of many months in the casinos of Reno and Las Vegas, and he had never seen a successful betting system in action, nor have Dr Allan Wilson ever heard of a successful betting system.

My answer: There is no such thing as a successful betting system, but there are a few successful betting strategies.

3. Dr Allan Wilson had a personal knowledge of several individualists who have spent years of their lives experimenting with systems, and these persons have done nothing but lose huge amounts of money.

My answer: I agree. All systems fail because you expose both the strengths and weaknesses of systems. Successful betting strategies rely on the concept of smart chasing of losses, variance and losses ‘not encountered’. In other words, you play until the cards go your way.

4. So many million people have devoted so much time over the years, both in this country and abroad, to devise successful betting systems, that it seems extremely unlikely that nobody would have stumbled onto at least one such system if any existed.

My answer: Holy grail will never be found if you project to infinity. However, it is possible to avoid infinity by winning peanuts consistently.

Dr Allan Wilson further added, “if you think you have a winning system, if you are a sceptic, if you think you have a system, do yourself the following favour. Play your system on paper for a length of time sufficient to double your bankroll several times. Double it three times, so that you have eight times what you started with. Don’t settle for winning 20 percent or 50 percent of your bankroll, or even doubling it just once. Double it three times. Give it the acid test. Get into the long run with it. My definition of the long run for testing a system is the length of time sufficient to double your investment three times. (most system players who do make a trial run on paper make the mistake of too short a test!). If you succeed in doubling three times without going broke, try to do it again, and if that succeeds too, write me and i shall publish it in the next edition of this book as the rarest event of the twentieth century.”

The star system was put to Dr. Wilson’s “acid test” three time and it passed it all three times. In other words, it took a six hundred dollar bankroll and parlayed it into over forty-eight hundred dollars six consecutive times while playing the game of blackjack. Remember, this is the result of a strictly 100 percent mechanical betting system (no card counting). Each of the six sessions lasted about eighteen hours (108 hr. Total), so it meets the prerequisite of being a long enough test. The average bet was roughly six dollars.

Here is the Star System. In a nutshell, it comprises one primary series and two recovery series.

Primary series: 1, 1, 1, 2 / 5, 10, 15, 25, 40 STOP. Total Risk 100
First Recovery : 2, 2, 2, 4 / 10, 20, 30, 50, 80 STOP. Total Risk 200
Final Recovery: 4, 4, 4, 8 / 20, 40, 60, 100, 160 STOP. Total Risk 400

Before the forward slash / is the pre-progression series
After the forward slash / is the progression series.
In the pre-progression series, you parlay the winning bet. If won you conclude the series and collect the winnings.
In the progression series, you play for double win. Alternate win-lose is stalemate. You play until you lose the bet and advance to the next number in the series or win and conclude the series.

If you lose your highest bet at 40, you lose 100 minus your sessional winnings. Assuming your sessional winning is 55, then your net loss is 45.

Now, you go into recovery series. Your first recovery series is still
1, 1, 1, 2 / 5, 10, 15, 25, 40 STOP. Total Risk 100
and not 2, 2, 2, 4 / 10, 20, 30, 50, 80 STOP. Total Risk 200
because your sessional net loss is 45 units and not 100 units. However, you play your first recovery bet 5 units or the total sum of all pre-progression numbers. You do not play the first pre-progression number or one unit.

(In my opinion, the author’s argument to play the total sum of all pre-progression numbers is flawed. It is allright to play this way but the reasoning “due” is wrong.)

Question: What is the reason for adding your pre-progression numbers together, and betting the total amount when you enter a recovery set.

Author’s Answer: You are overdue for your share of wins, and you don’t want to obtain them betting minimum bets.
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My answer: There is no such thing as overdue in a random game. It is flawed argument.

Star system is vulnerable to gambling tilt as the author explained. When the player lost the first series, they are prone to either extend to the sixth fibonacci number 65 or they will bet all pre-progression numbers all the time to enable a faster come back. The author’s advice is, Don’t. Granted, most of the time you will get away with it. But, the first time you don’t, can wipe out many days profit. When the cards don’t go their way , they keep increasing their bets until all cash and credit is gone. Somehow they have forgotten…That inevitable long losing streak is going to come everyone’s way sooner or later. If you don’t have a preset daily bankroll and use it, then you may find yourself with serious money problems.

The author spent about a year experimenting with recovery sessions. Many different versions and mathematical formulae were tried and many worked. Some looked great for a while, but would eventually fail when that long losing streak refused to go away. Others would allow you to play five or more recovery sessions with a daily bankroll. They resulted in an excess amount of time being spent with little or no profit being shown. On the other hand, twenty consecutive losses has happened to many people. The final results are: two recovery sessions are sufficient and offer the best compromise.

These are the ingredients that make up your daily bankroll. If you will proceed slowly, bet by bet, set by set, session by session, you should know the Star System.

DISCUSSION

Overall, I do not recommend STAR SYSTEM for regular casino play because there many weaknesses in the strategy. I post it here because it survives the acid test as a challenger to Dr Allan Wilson.

I recommend the star system for further research as well as for educational reasons especially the bankroll management. You can use star system as your starting point, then learn how to create a new strategy to enhance the power of the star system. Next, learn how to eliminate or tame the weaknesses of the star system. In my opinion, you will not win long term with star system. You will also not win on balance whenever you lose all three series. That is, the odds show its ugly head. You are only postponing your nemesis.

The star system has two major weaknesses.

Firstly, this system is vulnerable to the odds showing its ugly head, especially when you lose the primary series or when you when you lose all three series, that is, primary series and two recovery series. You will be hit by your nemesis anytime.

Secondly, when you win as in prolonged good luck, you are only winning 1+2 or three units which is way out of proportion to your occasional loss.

To win in games with negative expectation, you need to win in

1. Variance. Your betting strategies must enable you to play until the card go your way such that your average win is higher than your average loss.

2. You must be able to optimize your strategy by being able to play variance at each level. This means a sudden jump as in 5, 10, 15, 25, 40 is not a good strategy because you do not take advantage of 20, 30, 35.

3. Whenever possible you must attempt to win on alternates, that is one win one loss. Sometimes it is not possible because of your strategy. In that case it is a trade-off, but you must always consider this advantage play when you construct your strategy.

KEY POINTS

1. Even though the star system survive Dr Allan Wilson’s acid test, I do not recommend it for regular casino play.
2. All betting systems are garbage. However, a few exceptional playing strategies that uses only parts of the betting systems are winners.
3. Betting systems are tools that guide your playing methods. Flaws are very common in constructing betting systems. How you use your betting systems decide your outcome in gambling.
4. Betting strategies based on ‘not encountered’ can only win peanuts or as little as possible because you chase losses while at the same time protect your bankroll.

Star System

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If you would like to read further, these two books are strongly recommended.

The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, Revised Edition [Paperback]

The Casino Gambler’s Guide [Hardcover]
Allan N. Wilson (Author)


A Good Gambling Plan

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A Good Gambling Plan

Marshall Thuber was the first person to emphasize on “responsibility” as the most important success principle. He emphasized mainly on responsibility to our fellow human beings.

In your case, this translate to responsible gambling. Responsible gambling is possible only if you understand gambling theory. In other words, this also extends to responsibility in your decisions and outcomes on your gambling money. The way to do it is to set your own rules that apply to your gambling money, session duration and period of casino trip. First, you have to honour your rules. Second, you have to make sure that your rules are realistic. Being realistic means that your rules must consider and foresee all possible outcomes which may include best scenarios, worst scenarios and unexpected scenarios.

It is not easy to honour your rules. Many people refuse to honour their own rules because they were unable to accept the outcome. Usually, it is not their fault. It is just that their mental control breaks down. Only those who are emotionally mature are able to accept the outcome.

Ask yourself these questions:

What are your rules on money?
What are your rules on relationship with bankroll and playing sessions?
What are your rules on power to stop loss and power to quit?

From my experience in medical practice, I have found that when your mental control breaks down due to loss of money, relationship or power, people react in two distinct ways. First, they deviate from their rules, just like shifting the goal posts in the middle of the game. Their emotions are usually extreme. They may become extremely brave or extremely timid. Secondly, they go into grief reaction. Grief reaction is a symptom complex that manifest in many ways including depression. It usually takes up to six months for grief reactions to resolve.

At this stage, I would like to emphasize that NLP practitioners were the first persons to point out that human minds are unable to handle negative state of emotions. This in my opinion is very important but seldom emphasized. If you have not heard of NLP before, it stands for Neurolinguistic Programming. You can now see why it is important to clarify your rules on money, relationship and power. Clarity leads to power and wisdom. These three elements of money, relationship and power are your bluprint and checklist.

Your responsibility on money, relationship and power permeates every area of your lifestyle including your gambling venture. Gambling venture is not a ‘money’ venture. Gambling venture is a venture on money, your relationship with gambling money and your power to execute your gambling plan. Focus on the way you handle money, try to understand how you handle money under casino environment.

Finally, I would like to repeat what I have just mentioned. Your success or failure in gambling is not related to your ‘if only’ reasoning because each gambler play at their own comfort level. The quantum difference lies in the hazardous casino environment which can precipitate acute situational gambling behaviour and put you on gambling tilt. You have to be aware that the casino environment is affecting you in subtle ways as long as you remain in the game and even in the casino hotel.

You have to consider these elements in your gambling plan when you make your next trip to the casino. For example, you can work out the criteria when you will quit the game and when you will quit the casino.

You may still make mistakes because there are flaws in your gambling plan. However, always remember that a bad plan is better than no plan. You can always review your plan and improve on it. Start with a gambling plan. Do not procrastinate. Procrastination is the thief of time.

KEYPOINTS
1. Responsible gambling is possible only if you understand gambling theory.
2. Casino and game activities are environments with potential for hazards.
3. Human minds are unable to handle negative emotions.
4. Acute situational gambling behaviour and gambling tilt are due to irresponsible gambling, hazards of casino environment and inability of human minds to handle negative emotions.
5. You can counter these setbacks by having a good gambling plan.

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Feel like expressing your thought. Post your comment.
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FIVE TIPS TO AVOID GAMBLING TILT

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FIVE TIPS TO AVOID GAMBLING TILT

If you are new in gambling, you would invariably go into some degree of gambling tilt. Let’s assume you are playing poker. You got it all-in ahead and your fellow player suck out on you, giving you a bad beat. You would normally get upset, angry, or furious. The ability to handle this pre-tilt behaviour gets easier with time. The urge to go against optimal play or to deviate gradually fade away. This means you have become a better poker player. In other words, you learn how to be a realistic gambler. However, if you find bad beats in gambling very disturbing, you may take a look at these top five tips for dealing with them. These five tips work very well for poker players, but you can also adapt it for other casino games like baccarat, roulette, and blackjack.

Tip 1 – Understand gambling theory.

First and foremost, you must understand the gambling theory. Equity as well as negative and positive expectations of casino games work long term wheareas variance or lady luck work short term.

In poker, you may seem to think they are entitled to a pot, if you get it all-in with a set as against a flush draw. This is not true because you are going to lose the pot approximately 27% of the time. That’s almost 1/3 of the time. Understanding that these events happen frequently in poker is critical to being able to not tilt when you encounter the bad beat. This also happen in baccarat due to the third card as well as blackjack where the dealer pulls a third card to twenty-one to beat your twenty.

Tip 2 – Become process orientated not results orientated.

Being process oriented means that whether gambling is long term or short term, it is defined by process not time. The variables affecting the process depend on your gambling plan, the particular game you play and whether you start by winning or losing.

Results orientated thinking is the losers’ approach because it shows that you do not understand gambling theory. Everything you should do in gambling should be defined by your gambling plan. In games where you can find positive expectations, you would maximize your expectation in every given hand. If you associate losing with playing bad you are making a mistake. Its perfectly normal to play according to your gambling plan and lose due to variance, bad luck and bad beats. Likewise, it is possible to make several mistakes and yet win on a particular session. To win in gambling, you have to be process orientated, not result oriented.

Tip 3 –Losing short term despite good play is part of gambling

In poker, without bad beats, the fish would not play. Fish gamble on poker but not chess because chess is a game where superior players always win. The reason fish gamble is because they are convinced they can win on their lucky days. Hence, they keep playing in the future despite being long term losers. Variance, bad beats and instant gratification are what keep the fish playing because it gives them psychological flick and hope. If the fish were to loose every single hand, do you think they would continue to play. They would have long stayed away from gambling.

If you are too much insecure to your relationship, you cannot get the real taste of loving and living purchase levitra with each other. And you need these pills every time you go india viagra generic http://frankkrauseautomotive.com/cars-for-sale/page/3/ for sex. These 8 stranded ropes were so useful that, it reduced the use sildenafil samples of 6 stranded ropes. Erectile dysfunction is not a familiar word but it do has an alternative name that people are aware of the far-reaching effect that food can have on your overall health. purchase cialis online frankkrauseautomotive.com Just think of it like this, every time a fish bad beats you, you are giving them hope. They don’t understand odds, probability, variance, value betting, gambling tilt and the time management and money management skills that make you a winning poker gambler. All they understand is lady luck as well as winning and losing. When the fish wins, the fish keeps coming back. It is sort of cruel to think that way. You give them hope when you know they are going to lose a lot of money in the long run. But then, this is poker.

Tip 4 –Bad beats are good for skilful players

Bad beats and bad luck happen to every gambler and are a way in which you can gain reciprocal profits on your fellow players. Look at it this way. How you handle bad beats determine what you are make of. It is a test of your strength and your maturity not to tilt. If you don’t tilt in a situation when another gambler would have tilted, you have made some reciprocal money. Just as you can make money from your opponents by making better betting decisions, you can also make money with regard to tilting. If you don’t tilt, and your opponents tilt, you win. In fact, you can make money from exploiting gambling tilt.

Tip 5 – Know your breaking point and tolerance limit

Every gambler has a breaking point or tolerance limit. The breaking point is an imaginary stop loss limit, the maximum amount of money you can afford to lose within your gambling plan. The tolerance limit may also refer to situations that cause gamblers to play irrationally. Self-awareness, a good gambling plan, matured personality and discipline are the the keys to stop playing long before you reach that point. Casino games and poker are supposed to be fun. For skilful players, it is a profitable way to spend your time. Any time in which you are not having fun and are not playing your best, its best to quit, take a break, have a good rest and return to gamble wisely.

To summarize, in this post I hope you learn how to use gambling theory to construct a gambling plan that help you to stay off gambling tilt.

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