Are casino games beatable?
To Stanley Ho and Bob Stupak, all casino games are unbeatable.
Stanley Ho said in a TV interview by reporters, ” All gamblers will lose to me because casino games are our games.”
Bob Stupak said, ” Even a tiny one thousandth percent odd will bankrupt the richest man in the world if enough bets are played.”
To the casinos, all their games are unbeatable including professional poker.
Let’s take a look at a few scenarios to answer this question whether casino games are beatable.
Pofessional Poker and Poker Rooms
Let’s take a look at professional poker and poker rooms.
Many new small casino owners consider poker rooms as their best business. They rake in high hourly commissions. Their returns are possibly the best for any business. To the casino owner, the issue of whether poker game is beatable or unbeatable is irrelevant. The reason is the casino do not book the bets. Players play among themselves. Yet, you have seen the successes of professional poker players. Despite the rake, ten percent of the long term poker players are winners. They pay taxes to the government every year. If this is the scenario, can you imagine the losses sustained by the losers, the remaining 90%. Losers lose to both the casinos and the professionals. Indeed, they are big losers. Can you imagine that. The ugly side of gambling is seen in the losers.
Progressive Jackpot
Now, we take a look at progressive jackpot.
Casino seed the initial payout for jackpot which is just a tiny amount taken from their profits. Then the casino feed the jackpot a tiny percent from their profits. You can actually calculate the zero odd for the jackpot. If nobody hit the jackpot, it will grow to a point where the odd is zero. Beyond that you will have a positive mathematical expectation when you bet on the jackpot. When this scenario happens, you will find professionals enter the game because they are paid more than the odds.
One good historical example is by Stanford Wong in Las Vegas. One day, he declared publicly that the progressive jackpot now offers positive mathematical expectation. So, he was in the game everyday until somebody hit the progressive jackpot. It was said that he hit the jackpot but this information was never verified.
You can see that although Stanford Wong won the jackpot with positive expectation, the casino still consider progressive jackpot unbeatable. The additional money that Stanford Wong won comes from the fellow players who lost badly both to Stanford Wong and the casino.
How casino set table limits to foolproof their business
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Next, consider how casino set table limits to foolproof their business. This is an indirect way of saying, “to make their games unbeatable.” For small tables, it is not neccesary for casino to set low table limits. But they do that all the time. The reason is human and management factor especially errors made by new croupers and pit bosses. The crucial part is the high stake table. I have seen a number of times when player requests for super high stake tables were turned down. The casino ask them to play elsewhere. However, I have seen the same casino open ten high stake tables during the festive seasons.
The reason is very simple. A big loss in a single high stake table during the low season can cause the casino to show a net loss at the end of the day. But during festive season, the casino can open ten high stake tables because there are enough players to average out to ensure a net win for the casino. In other words, the casino wants to make sure that a big win by a player is always at the premium of a big loss by another player.
How casino increase their winning by using counter-measures on winners
Finally, you have seen from my post that you can win 100% of your series playing games with negative expectations. This is shocking to many people but not the casinos. The Las Vegas magazine acknowkedges that there are only 200 players in casino list who won this way. Another large casino told me that there are only 20 out of millions in their list who won this way. They are in their list because they win big. I believe there are many more who win this way but they are not in their list because they win small. Unfortunately, the saying is that there is no way to reverse the casino odds by betting systems. I agree but this argument is irrelevant because players win not by reversing the odds but through the mechanism of variance and ‘not encountered.’
Casino knows that players can win through the mechanism of variance and ‘not encountered.’ Casinos also know that they can only win peanuts unless their capital is larger than the whole casino. Casinos are aware that their method of play is not scalable. If you attempt to scale, the variance inherent in the game of chance will invariably bust your bankroll. So, the casino use counter-measures to get you to make your own mistakes. According to the casino, their counter-measures are very effective and work almost 100% of the time.
If winning becomes too easy like counting cards in blackjack, casino will change their rules.
In conclusion, all casino games are unbeatable but casino rules especially those of big casinos allow professionals to win long term at the premium of those who lost.
KEYPOINTS
1. Professional gamblers can win long term irrespective of whether the casino games have negative or positive mathematical expectations.
2. Casino consider that all their games are unbeatable but acknowledges that professional gamblers can win long term.
3. If winning becomes too easy, casinos will change their rules.
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