Dr Allan Wilson and the Challenger Star System

Dr. Allan Wilson authored a book “the casino gamblers’ guide”. Published in 1965, Dr. Allan Wilson’s analysed the various intricate betting systems. His views about betting systems can be summarized as follows. I have included my response to his views.

1. Dr Allan Wilson said he had read a vast amount of literature on the subject of gambling, as the references list indicates. In none of this literature had he ever read a verifiable account of a successful betting system.

My answer: Every system has its strength and weakness. A good strategy uses the strength of a combination of systems. A good strategy avoid the weakness of each individual system.

2. In a period exceeding ten years, Dr Allan Wilson had spent an accumulated time of many months in the casinos of Reno and Las Vegas, and he had never seen a successful betting system in action, nor have Dr Allan Wilson ever heard of a successful betting system.

My answer: There is no such thing as a successful betting system, but there are a few successful betting strategies.

3. Dr Allan Wilson had a personal knowledge of several individualists who have spent years of their lives experimenting with systems, and these persons have done nothing but lose huge amounts of money.

My answer: I agree. All systems fail because you expose both the strengths and weaknesses of systems. Successful betting strategies rely on the concept of smart chasing of losses, variance and losses ‘not encountered’. In other words, you play until the cards go your way.

4. So many million people have devoted so much time over the years, both in this country and abroad, to devise successful betting systems, that it seems extremely unlikely that nobody would have stumbled onto at least one such system if any existed.

My answer: Holy grail will never be found if you project to infinity. However, it is possible to avoid infinity by winning peanuts consistently.

Dr Allan Wilson further added, “if you think you have a winning system, if you are a sceptic, if you think you have a system, do yourself the following favour. Play your system on paper for a length of time sufficient to double your bankroll several times. Double it three times, so that you have eight times what you started with. Don’t settle for winning 20 percent or 50 percent of your bankroll, or even doubling it just once. Double it three times. Give it the acid test. Get into the long run with it. My definition of the long run for testing a system is the length of time sufficient to double your investment three times. (most system players who do make a trial run on paper make the mistake of too short a test!). If you succeed in doubling three times without going broke, try to do it again, and if that succeeds too, write me and i shall publish it in the next edition of this book as the rarest event of the twentieth century.”

The star system was put to Dr. Wilson’s “acid test” three time and it passed it all three times. In other words, it took a six hundred dollar bankroll and parlayed it into over forty-eight hundred dollars six consecutive times while playing the game of blackjack. Remember, this is the result of a strictly 100 percent mechanical betting system (no card counting). Each of the six sessions lasted about eighteen hours (108 hr. Total), so it meets the prerequisite of being a long enough test. The average bet was roughly six dollars.

Here is the Star System. In a nutshell, it comprises one primary series and two recovery series.

Primary series: 1, 1, 1, 2 / 5, 10, 15, 25, 40 STOP. Total Risk 100
First Recovery : 2, 2, 2, 4 / 10, 20, 30, 50, 80 STOP. Total Risk 200
Final Recovery: 4, 4, 4, 8 / 20, 40, 60, 100, 160 STOP. Total Risk 400

Before the forward slash / is the pre-progression series
After the forward slash / is the progression series.
In the pre-progression series, you parlay the winning bet. If won you conclude the series and collect the winnings.
In the progression series, you play for double win. Alternate win-lose is stalemate. You play until you lose the bet and advance to the next number in the series or win and conclude the series.

If you lose your highest bet at 40, you lose 100 minus your sessional winnings. Assuming your sessional winning is 55, then your net loss is 45.

Now, you go into recovery series. Your first recovery series is still
1, 1, 1, 2 / 5, 10, 15, 25, 40 STOP. Total Risk 100
and not 2, 2, 2, 4 / 10, 20, 30, 50, 80 STOP. Total Risk 200
because your sessional net loss is 45 units and not 100 units. However, you play your first recovery bet 5 units or the total sum of all pre-progression numbers. You do not play the first pre-progression number or one unit.

(In my opinion, the author’s argument to play the total sum of all pre-progression numbers is flawed. It is allright to play this way but the reasoning “due” is wrong.)

Question: What is the reason for adding your pre-progression numbers together, and betting the total amount when you enter a recovery set.

Author’s Answer: You are overdue for your share of wins, and you don’t want to obtain them betting minimum bets.
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My answer: There is no such thing as overdue in a random game. It is flawed argument.

Star system is vulnerable to gambling tilt as the author explained. When the player lost the first series, they are prone to either extend to the sixth fibonacci number 65 or they will bet all pre-progression numbers all the time to enable a faster come back. The author’s advice is, Don’t. Granted, most of the time you will get away with it. But, the first time you don’t, can wipe out many days profit. When the cards don’t go their way , they keep increasing their bets until all cash and credit is gone. Somehow they have forgotten…That inevitable long losing streak is going to come everyone’s way sooner or later. If you don’t have a preset daily bankroll and use it, then you may find yourself with serious money problems.

The author spent about a year experimenting with recovery sessions. Many different versions and mathematical formulae were tried and many worked. Some looked great for a while, but would eventually fail when that long losing streak refused to go away. Others would allow you to play five or more recovery sessions with a daily bankroll. They resulted in an excess amount of time being spent with little or no profit being shown. On the other hand, twenty consecutive losses has happened to many people. The final results are: two recovery sessions are sufficient and offer the best compromise.

These are the ingredients that make up your daily bankroll. If you will proceed slowly, bet by bet, set by set, session by session, you should know the Star System.

DISCUSSION

Overall, I do not recommend STAR SYSTEM for regular casino play because there many weaknesses in the strategy. I post it here because it survives the acid test as a challenger to Dr Allan Wilson.

I recommend the star system for further research as well as for educational reasons especially the bankroll management. You can use star system as your starting point, then learn how to create a new strategy to enhance the power of the star system. Next, learn how to eliminate or tame the weaknesses of the star system. In my opinion, you will not win long term with star system. You will also not win on balance whenever you lose all three series. That is, the odds show its ugly head. You are only postponing your nemesis.

The star system has two major weaknesses.

Firstly, this system is vulnerable to the odds showing its ugly head, especially when you lose the primary series or when you when you lose all three series, that is, primary series and two recovery series. You will be hit by your nemesis anytime.

Secondly, when you win as in prolonged good luck, you are only winning 1+2 or three units which is way out of proportion to your occasional loss.

To win in games with negative expectation, you need to win in

1. Variance. Your betting strategies must enable you to play until the card go your way such that your average win is higher than your average loss.

2. You must be able to optimize your strategy by being able to play variance at each level. This means a sudden jump as in 5, 10, 15, 25, 40 is not a good strategy because you do not take advantage of 20, 30, 35.

3. Whenever possible you must attempt to win on alternates, that is one win one loss. Sometimes it is not possible because of your strategy. In that case it is a trade-off, but you must always consider this advantage play when you construct your strategy.

KEY POINTS

1. Even though the star system survive Dr Allan Wilson’s acid test, I do not recommend it for regular casino play.
2. All betting systems are garbage. However, a few exceptional playing strategies that uses only parts of the betting systems are winners.
3. Betting systems are tools that guide your playing methods. Flaws are very common in constructing betting systems. How you use your betting systems decide your outcome in gambling.
4. Betting strategies based on ‘not encountered’ can only win peanuts or as little as possible because you chase losses while at the same time protect your bankroll.

If you would like to read further, these two books are strongly recommended.

The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, Revised Edition [Paperback]

The Casino Gambler’s Guide [Hardcover]
Allan N. Wilson (Author)