How to win in regular casino games
By regular casino games, I mean baccarat, roulette, Mini-dice and Tai-Sai because these are the games I usually play. I play only even odd bets. I prefer baccarat because the game is faster.
When gamblers think about how to win in regular casino games, their approach always come under lady luck, gambling systems or money management.
In this post we will discuss only gambling system. What is so great about gambling system. In a nutshell, gambling system is nothing great. It is just like doing business in an unstable environment. It is difficult to make money in an unstable business environment. Similarly, it is difficult win in games of negative expectations.
There are two schools of thought in gambling. Those who believe games with negative expectations are beatable. And those who believe that games with negative expectations are unbeatable. Putting it another way, you may like to know how you can win in games with negative expectations. You can rely on these two concepts to win. They are ‘smart chasing of losses’ and ‘not encountered’. Whenever you analyse any systems and you find that these two key points are not adequately addressed, my advice is to drop the system. Just assume it is a scam.
Regular casino games are the bread and butter of casino owners. As such, it is not easy to win in these games. Let us assume that you want to beat the casino in even-odd games. I have mentioned in my previous posts that it is possible or rather controversial. All those winning strategies I have described are excluded because they are not regular play. These strategies are bet banker only, tie bets in baccarat, counting card in blackjack, bias wheel in roulettes, casino promotions, casino tournaments, match play coupons and so on. Once again I would like to emphasize that to win in regular casino games is not easy because you are breaking into the rice bowl of the casino owners. However, the casino is not worried. you will find out why.
It is like saying you can run 100 meters under 10 seconds. There are very few people who can do that. Another analogy is to say that you can live until 100 years old. Of course, a few can live up to that age, but most won’t live that long. Similarly, there are very few people who can win in games with negative expectations. This explains why casino reap astronomical profits from these negative expectaion games. Because a few gamblers can only win peanuts, casino winning from other gamblers can easily cover for your peanuts.
You need to understand a few concepts before I can go on. Pure theorists, mathematicians and statisticians claimed that negative expectation games are unbeatable. They based their assumption on infinite play. In my opinion, this assumption is flawed.
I will show you why. Time in universe is infinite. Our solar system is not infinite. Planet earth is not infinite. Our civilization is only about 6000 years. Human life span is not infinite. So that assumption is flawed and therefore you would be able to beat the casino in their regular games.
You will win when you creatively combine ‘smart chasing of losses‘ with ‘not encountered‘. However, it is not easy. Chances are you will win only peanuts. Chances are many of you will lose a lot when you make mistakes. So, you rarely see players playing this way or winning this way. Winning in games with negative expectation relies on the twin principle of ‘smart chasing of losses’ and ‘not encountered’. ‘Smart chasing of losses’ is the concept I invented to differentiate it from irresponsible chasing of losses. ‘Not encountered’ is the concept I borrowed from HP Johnson Guaranteed system.
Not encountered works because we do not play infinite number of hands in a lifetime. However, empirical observation shows these players are net losers long term due to mistakes and casino counter-measures. It is like saying salaried workers are in debt despite their monthly income. It is not that the system did not work. It is just that it is a poor man’s salary. It is a matter of time that the poor man end up broke.
Even if they have succeeded in gambling systems, they are still failures. I will show you why. The concept of not encountered are highly elusive. Let’s get started. Please bear with me for a while. Imagine you can play Martindale or double up to 80x. Do you think you will lose in a lifetime of play. My answer is definitely no. However, if you project 2 to the power 80 to infinity then of course you will lose your series which is supposed to be not encountered. You will noticed that there are two parameters that explains ‘not encountered’.
The characteristics of the martindale system are
1. Stakes get very high very fast but you make a fast come back.
2. When you are lucky you are just winning one unit.
3. As long as you hit your single win you are ahead.
4. Losing streak never last more than half an hour.
However, you know that this does not work and Martindale is historically responsible for the suicidal rates in the French Riveria.
So, here is the magic. You do not need to be ahead within half an hour. You can work out your gambling plan such that at worse you will be ahead after one week of losses.
You narrow down your bet spread and eliminate all the high stakes in the Martindale series. You want to maintain your ability to win without having to win more times just like Martindale.
HP Johnson Guaranteed System qualify for this. The system passed the problem area to the time parameter so that you always play at comfortable levels. Your worst losing streak theoretically will last only one week. In other words, you convert half an hour into one week, and your huge imaginary bankroll becomes a moderate manageable practical winning bankroll. In several years of actual casino play, HP Johnson encountered three days of losses only once before he recovered on the fourth day. I also encountered three days of losses once before I recovered my losses on the fourth day. HP Johnson played six series simultaneously, so do I. Remember, it is not necessary to conclude the series as long as you are ahead. Also, remember to re-balance your scales every now and then.
Enjoy your reward point, win as little as you can and make sure you are immune to gambling tilt. I usually chase after casino rewards which include free rooms, free foods and free shows when I play this way.
You can never lose this way because it is very much like a gambling plan at 2 to the power 80 at maximum half hour but you translate it into much lower stakes and bet spread at maximum one week of smart chasing of losses.
After winning for some time, the player gets greedy and impatient. He will tell you that now he is doubling his income. He thought that the not encountered is something like 2 to the power 79. It is not. It is now 2 to the power 40. So, he doubles his rate of income again and thought that his Martindale string is now 2 to the power 78. . The correct answer is more likely 2 to the power 20. He repeated his winning streak and thought that he is invincible. Finally, his win rate is fast but his string is now 2 to the power 10. Casino can easily get you at ten losses in a row and the poor misguided gambler lost back all his winnings possibly within six months. Very likely he would also have lost his bankroll. This scenario can be considered as a subtle form of gambling tilt.
Note: This player is still playing the HP Johnson Guaranteed System but at much higher stake. I am using the martindale analogy to illustrate to you how this imaginary player lose back his winnings.
It need not happen this way. It may happen indirectly depending on the gambling system you play. You deviate or go on gambling tilt in certain subtle ways such that your play is no longer ‘not encountered’.
This is precisely the reason I do not recommend playing this way if you are going after money as a source . It is acceptable to play this way to brag or for self-gratification, to show off. It is important to understand this concept.
You can see that this method of play is not suitable as a source of money. The unstable nature will somehow make you lose your money back. Because this method of play is not scalable, you must be willing to play as small as possible at all times and win peanuts. Your peanuts are like what Neil Armstrong said when he landed on the moon, “A Small Step for a Man, A Big Leap for Mankind.
If you want more you have to play games with positive expectations.
KEY POINTS
1. Winning peanuts in regular casino games is easy if you can handle smart chasing of losses, not encountered and gambling tilt.
2. The concept of ‘not encountered’ include two parameters, bet spread and time. HP Johnson Guaranteed System optimize both parameters extremely well.
3. Winning in regular casino games is not scalable and you must win as little as you can.
4. Play to win as little as possible just to brag, self-gratification and show off.
5. Winning in regular casino games is a small step for a man, a big leap in mankind.
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