Win Negative Expectation Games
How to win in gambling for negative expectation games 100% of the time?
Professional gambling in games of negative expectation is not a small feat. It requires many years of serious research and serious work in order to win in gambling. It is like what Neil Armstrong said when he landed on the moon, “A Small Step for A Man, A Big leap in Mankind”.
This is the reason why big casinos never ban gamblers who win consistently in games with negative expectation. However, you may be refused play in small casino.
The nice part about beating the casino in negative expectation games is that you are attacking the casino. This is unlike winning in poker where you are attacking your fellow gamblers.
Since this is the question commonly asked, I will explain this method again from a different approach.
The following two posts are a requisite to understand this post. You may have to read them again.
How to win in regular casino games
Understanding variance and not encountered.
Now, I want you to imagine that you can play Martindale or double up to 80x just like the way you imagine the meaning of infinity in mathematics or even the meaning of the temperature at absolute zero Kelvin. Do you think you will lose your eighty-level Martindale series in a lifetime of play? My answer is definitely no.
The characteristics of the Martindale system are:
1. Stakes get very high very fast but you make a fast come back.
2. A single win is enough for you to make a comeback.
Let us assume you lose the first 79 bets and win the 80th bet. This probably takes three hours of play. So, you win every session. We all agree that you will never lose 80 times in a row without a single win in a lifetime of play. And we all agree that it is impossible to play this way. But, if it is possible to play some method similar to this way, then our win is 100%.
So, we create a transformation for our imaginary Martindale series.
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We do not want the high stakes but we can compensate by slowing down the comeback.
2. A single win is enough for you to make a comeback.
We do not need a single win to make a comeback. We can create a sessional win of about 60 to 80 bets to make a comeback.
So, you can see the power of our transformation. We eliminate all the high stakes in the Martindale series, and transform that into the time parameter. Instead of winning after a maximum of three hours of losses as in the case of our imaginary 80-level Martindale, we convert it into a guaranteed win in gambling after a maximum of 240 hours. Our single bet is transformed into a single session of about 60 to 80 bets. Suddenly, it becomes possible to lose up to 79 three-hour sessions but we win back everything on the 80th session or the thirtieth day of play to conclude our series.
To reiterate, our series transformed from 80 Martindale series becomes approximately a three hour three sessions per day for one month. You can lose any number of sessions. Any one winning session before you reach eighty sessions will conclude your series irrespective of the number of losing sessions. It is like Martindale where one win will conclude your series irrespective of the number of losing bets. Sessional series enable you to pass the losing series to the time parameter.
Why is it possible to win in gambling this way? It is because of the rules of percentage swing and the rules of absolute swing as described in one of my earlier post. Within these thirty days of play per series, you have to make sure that your system is not caught by the rule of absolute swing. To do this you have to make sure that your play always target at around 40% win rate to close the series. If you are playing predominantly HP Johnson system, the initial session is capped at 30 units. After every three days of losses, you increase to 35 units. If you continue to lose, your highest stake is capped at 80 units by the end of 30 days. This is necessary to maintain your 40% target. But you know that this does not happen in actual casino play. Experience from HP Johnson and myself have shown that our maximum losses only last three days after many years of play. Your bankroll can last one month. And you only use a small percentage of your bankroll.
So, here is the magic. You do not need to be ahead within half an hour or even three hours. For practical reasons, you can work out your gambling plan such that at worse you will be ahead after one week of losses. Theoretically, you prepare for one month. The reason is to prevent gambling tilt. You narrow down your bet spread and eliminate all the high stakes in the Martindale series. You want to maintain your ability to win in gambling without having to win more times just like Martindale. Forty per cent is the magic number.
You can never lose this way because it is very much like a gambling plan with 80-level Martindale. You have translated it into much lower stakes of bet spread but your losing streak is now theoretically one month of smart chasing of losses. Yes, from three hours to one month. Therefore, you have to approach the game step by step in order to win in gambling.
You will need at least 2000 units of bankroll. And this bankroll must be your easily affordable stake. Why? You need that to prevent gambling tilt. However, you will only use a small part of your bankroll the majority of the times.
For the majority of the gamblers, I do not recommend playing this way if you are going after money as a source. It is acceptable to play this way to brag or for self-gratification, to show off. It is important to understand this concept. You can see that this method of play is not suitable as a source of money. The unstable nature will somehow make you lose your money back. Because this method of play is not scalable, you must be willing to play as small as possible at all times and win peanuts with respect to your bankroll. Your peanuts are like what Neil Armstrong said when he landed on the moon, “A Small Step for a Man, A Big Leap for Mankind.
If you want more you have to play games with positive expectations.
KEY POINTS
1. Martindale shows that it is possible for one win to cover many losses. Unfortunately, Martindale cannot handle ‘not encountered’, Rule of Precentage Swing and Rule of Absolute Swing.
2. However, one session of win can cover many sessions of losses. When properly structured, this method of play can solve the double problems of ‘not encountered’ and ‘the twin rules of absolute swing and percentage swing’.
