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Winning Patterns of Recreational Gamblers

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Winning Patterns of Recreational Gamblers

The majority of the recreational gamblers lost money to the casino. A few win due to variance. A small group of recreational gamblers know how to use their common sense to enjoy the casino facilities and win some money.

In my opinion, their common sense approach is indeed a pure money management approach. I shall describe this as common sense money management approach to win as a recreational gambler. Forget about system. Just remember that the winning patterns are your strict limits of easily affordable losses and win as much as you can.

My earlier post

win negative expectation games is a prerequisite to appreciate this post.

http://www.gamblinghelp.biz/wpblog/win-negative-expectation-games/

If you are playing in any big casino, you should have heard or come across at least one big winner almost every single day. This is one of the commonest casino scenes. Over the years I have managed to speak to about five of them. The mind-sets and the playing methods of all of them show some common characteristics. Three of them are baccarat players, one blackjack player and one roulette player.

They are all high rollers. All of them played at the same table as me, so I had the opportunity to observe their play.

One day, one high roller joined me at the same table. After a series of hot rolls, he quitted having won about 200k. I managed to chit chat with him. He told me that during his last five trips, he lost 20k each trip for a total loss of 100k. This trip he won 200k for a net win of 100k.

The stories of the other four are about the same. They have many trips of easily affordable losses, followed by one trip of big win. All of them demonstrate clearly definable winning patterns.

recreational gamblers

If you compare their methods with my win negative expectation games, you will find that they share the same characteristics except that these five recreational gamblers use common sense approach instead of playing scientifically.

They will lose many sessions with strict limits on losses, then comes one good session. They recover their losses with a nice profit on balance.
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Hopefully, you can see some similarities between recreational gambling and professional gambling. Compare this method with my “win negative expectation games” and you will see the winning patterns which are invariably several sessions of losses followed by one session of big win.

This is a pure money management approach. As a recreational gambler, you can play anyhow you like except for strict limit on sessional or trip losses as well as the discipline to protect your profit in the event you get a hot roll.

If you would like to play recreationally, yet win on balance, this is probably the best approach.

Be prepared to lose as many sessions as possible, but make sure you understand that the winning patterns of one session of wins can cover many sessions of losses. Whenever you get a hot roll, you have to win as much as you can.

The casino is aware of players who win this way. The casino will use all sort of counter-measures on the players. According to the casino management, the counter-measures work on the majority of the players. Only a few individuals, very few, can evade their counter-measures.

Since casino counter-measures will cause the recreational gamblers to loss back their winnings, you need to learn professional gambling in order to understand the game mathematically so that you can hold on to your winnings long term.

Recreational gambling is like moving around without a map. Professional gambling is like moving around with a map.

KEYPOINTS

1. Recreational gamblers can win on balance with their common sense pure money management method.
2. The first rule to remember is strict limit on sessional or trip losses.
3. The second rule to remember is win as much as you can and protect your profit in the event of a hot roll.
4. The winning patterns are many sessions of easily affordable losses followed by one session of big wins.


Win Negative Expectation Games

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Win Negative Expectation Games

How to win in gambling for negative expectation games 100% of the time?

Professional gambling in games of negative expectation is not a small feat. It requires many years of serious research and serious work in order to win in gambling. It is like what Neil Armstrong said when he landed on the moon, “A Small Step for A Man, A Big leap in Mankind”.

This is the reason why big casinos never ban gamblers who win consistently in games with negative expectation. However, you may be refused play in small casino.

The nice part about beating the casino in negative expectation games is that you are attacking the casino. This is unlike winning in poker where you are attacking your fellow gamblers.

Since this is the question commonly asked, I will explain this method again from a different approach.

The following two posts are a requisite to understand this post. You may have to read them again.

How to win in regular casino games

http://wp.me/p2bpjz-gj

Understanding variance and not encountered.

http://wp.me/p2bpjz-hE

Now, I want you to imagine that you can play Martindale or double up to 80x just like the way you imagine the meaning of infinity in mathematics or even the meaning of the temperature at absolute zero Kelvin. Do you think you will lose your eighty-level Martindale series in a lifetime of play? My answer is definitely no.

The characteristics of the Martindale system are:

1. Stakes get very high very fast but you make a fast come back.
2. A single win is enough for you to make a comeback.

Let us assume you lose the first 79 bets and win the 80th bet. This probably takes three hours of play. So, you win every session. We all agree that you will never lose 80 times in a row without a single win in a lifetime of play. And we all agree that it is impossible to play this way. But, if it is possible to play some method similar to this way, then our win is 100%.

So, we create a transformation for our imaginary Martindale series.

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We do not want the high stakes but we can compensate by slowing down the comeback.

2. A single win is enough for you to make a comeback.

We do not need a single win to make a comeback. We can create a sessional win of about 60 to 80 bets to make a comeback.

So, you can see the power of our transformation. We eliminate all the high stakes in the Martindale series, and transform that into the time parameter. Instead of winning after a maximum of three hours of losses as in the case of our imaginary 80-level Martindale, we convert it into a guaranteed win in gambling after a maximum of 240 hours. Our single bet is transformed into a single session of about 60 to 80 bets. Suddenly, it becomes possible to lose up to 79 three-hour sessions but we win back everything on the 80th session or the thirtieth day of play to conclude our series.

image baccarat

To reiterate, our series transformed from 80 Martindale series becomes approximately a three hour three sessions per day for one month. You can lose any number of sessions. Any one winning session before you reach eighty sessions will conclude your series irrespective of the number of losing sessions. It is like Martindale where one win will conclude your series irrespective of the number of losing bets. Sessional series enable you to pass the losing series to the time parameter.

Why is it possible to win in gambling this way? It is because of the rules of percentage swing and the rules of absolute swing as described in one of my earlier post. Within these thirty days of play per series, you have to make sure that your system is not caught by the rule of absolute swing. To do this you have to make sure that your play always target at around 40% win rate to close the series. If you are playing predominantly HP Johnson system, the initial session is capped at 30 units. After every three days of losses, you increase to 35 units. If you continue to lose, your highest stake is capped at 80 units by the end of 30 days. This is necessary to maintain your 40% target. But you know that this does not happen in actual casino play. Experience from HP Johnson and myself have shown that our maximum losses only last three days after many years of play. Your bankroll can last one month. And you only use a small percentage of your bankroll.

So, here is the magic. You do not need to be ahead within half an hour or even three hours. For practical reasons, you can work out your gambling plan such that at worse you will be ahead after one week of losses. Theoretically, you prepare for one month. The reason is to prevent gambling tilt. You narrow down your bet spread and eliminate all the high stakes in the Martindale series. You want to maintain your ability to win in gambling without having to win more times just like Martindale. Forty per cent is the magic number.

You can never lose this way because it is very much like a gambling plan with 80-level Martindale. You have translated it into much lower stakes of bet spread but your losing streak is now theoretically one month of smart chasing of losses. Yes, from three hours to one month. Therefore, you have to approach the game step by step in order to win in gambling.

You will need at least 2000 units of bankroll. And this bankroll must be your easily affordable stake. Why? You need that to prevent gambling tilt. However, you will only use a small part of your bankroll the majority of the times.

image baccarat

For the majority of the gamblers, I do not recommend playing this way if you are going after money as a source. It is acceptable to play this way to brag or for self-gratification, to show off. It is important to understand this concept. You can see that this method of play is not suitable as a source of money. The unstable nature will somehow make you lose your money back. Because this method of play is not scalable, you must be willing to play as small as possible at all times and win peanuts with respect to your bankroll. Your peanuts are like what Neil Armstrong said when he landed on the moon, “A Small Step for a Man, A Big Leap for Mankind.

If you want more you have to play games with positive expectations.

KEY POINTS

1. Martindale shows that it is possible for one win to cover many losses. Unfortunately, Martindale cannot handle ‘not encountered’, Rule of Precentage Swing and Rule of Absolute Swing.

2. However, one session of win can cover many sessions of losses. When properly structured, this method of play can solve the double problems of ‘not encountered’ and ‘the twin rules of absolute swing and percentage swing’.


Negative Expectation Games Versus Positive Expectation Games

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Negative expectation games versus positive expectation games.

Whenever I present any system with negative expectation, I always got attacked by fellow players.

Sure, all system with negative expectations are vulnerable. In fact, extremely vulnerable.

This is the reason why I always recommend games or situations with positive expectations.

With positive expectations helping you, the winning mechanism is so stable and powerful.

If the game has positive expectation, you start off with the lowest limit. The positive expectation will help you to make the money.

Then you move up one level. If you start by losing, your positive expectation will come to your rescue.
Then you move one level up again.

All games with negative expectations are not suitable for long term play. You cannot play the same way like above. You have to hit and run.

However, you can manipulate it in certain way such that losing streak is not encountered.

Allow me to make this hypothetical assumption: This is very important. Bear with me until you read twice.

Look at this martindale series.

Please do not attack me. I am trying to explain hypothetically the concept that NOT ENCOUNTERED is different from HOLY GRAIL.

1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128………….up to 26 times

Assuming it is possible to play this way. Then you can assume that you are unlikely to lose in a lifetime of play.

If say, ten thousand players play this way, then it is very likely that one will lose in a lifetime of play.

THIS HYPOTHESIS ILLUSTRATES THE MEANING THAT LOSING STREAK IS NOT ENCOUNTERED.

Now, we take a look at the problem with this system.

When you lose 26 times in a row your loss is way out of proportion to your win.

And when you win, you win a miserable one unit at a time.

So, how do you optimize this martindale string such that you will not lose way out of proportion to your win
and your win is not a miserable one unit at a time.

All professional methods dealing with smart chasing of losses all uses this aspect of optimization.

You just have to follow my blog. Slowly I will illustrate one system after another the concepts used by professional until you become crystal clear about this concept.

Back to our martindale numbers. In order to optimize, we want to do this.

When we win we want our unit to be higher not one unit.
When we lose we want our large numbers to be much smaller.
And we also want to maintain that we do not need to hit more times to win, just like in martindale.

Then next step, how to optimize such that we get the scenario with these three elements.

HP Johnson has done a good job.

By fixing an optimal string,

5 5 5 5 5 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45

we can start off by losing 31 times followed by 7 wins and we won 430. Ratio of 4.4 loss to one win. Amazing. This method of play does not have the problem of martindale yet has the power of martindale.

And our high stakes is never high because we split the number when it gets too high. If we are hit by adverse run at this point, our string gets longer and longer. That means we keep splitting our numbers into more numbers.

When there are many numbers like 50 numbers, distribution gives you enormous power to weaken the effect of extreme adverse run. You get the best of both worlds.

Adverse runs can never get you, yet you have the power of martindale.

This is the reason I ask you to try out the 50 numbers string at home to feel the effect for yourself.

You need only 25 hits to close the string irrespective of the number of losses.

1111111111 4444444444 4444444444 4444444444 4444444444

total= 170

If you try at home you will notice the following:

1. it is very much like flat bet but superior to flat bet

2. You will also notice that it is not necessary to close the string. As long as you have reasonable profit you can drop the string anytime you like.

Take a rest then start a new series.

A powerful and smart method to chase your losses.

WARNING: THIS METHOD IS FOR PROFESSIONALS ONLY.

Email me at

soondr@gmail.com

if you have any question

HP Johnson System

thumbnail HP Johnson System

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