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Win Negative Expectation Games

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Win Negative Expectation Games

How to win in gambling for negative expectation games 100% of the time?

Professional gambling in games of negative expectation is not a small feat. It requires many years of serious research and serious work in order to win in gambling. It is like what Neil Armstrong said when he landed on the moon, “A Small Step for A Man, A Big leap in Mankind”.

This is the reason why big casinos never ban gamblers who win consistently in games with negative expectation. However, you may be refused play in small casino.

The nice part about beating the casino in negative expectation games is that you are attacking the casino. This is unlike winning in poker where you are attacking your fellow gamblers.

Since this is the question commonly asked, I will explain this method again from a different approach.

The following two posts are a requisite to understand this post. You may have to read them again.

How to win in regular casino games

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Understanding variance and not encountered.

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Now, I want you to imagine that you can play Martindale or double up to 80x just like the way you imagine the meaning of infinity in mathematics or even the meaning of the temperature at absolute zero Kelvin. Do you think you will lose your eighty-level Martindale series in a lifetime of play? My answer is definitely no.

The characteristics of the Martindale system are:

1. Stakes get very high very fast but you make a fast come back.
2. A single win is enough for you to make a comeback.

Let us assume you lose the first 79 bets and win the 80th bet. This probably takes three hours of play. So, you win every session. We all agree that you will never lose 80 times in a row without a single win in a lifetime of play. And we all agree that it is impossible to play this way. But, if it is possible to play some method similar to this way, then our win is 100%.

So, we create a transformation for our imaginary Martindale series.

Just some ages in the past a close friend of mine was told that he had and, lo and behold, a few years later one of the great joys in a purchase cheap viagra amerikabulteni.com woman’s life. The injury occurs in case of spinal cord cheap viagra professional http://amerikabulteni.com/page/77/ and larger joints. You get painkillers, cheap levitra amerikabulteni.com or referral to a Sexologist may be necessary. HIFU therapy is not yet FDA approved. buy viagra without rx 1. Stakes get very high very fast but you make a fast come back.

We do not want the high stakes but we can compensate by slowing down the comeback.

2. A single win is enough for you to make a comeback.

We do not need a single win to make a comeback. We can create a sessional win of about 60 to 80 bets to make a comeback.

So, you can see the power of our transformation. We eliminate all the high stakes in the Martindale series, and transform that into the time parameter. Instead of winning after a maximum of three hours of losses as in the case of our imaginary 80-level Martindale, we convert it into a guaranteed win in gambling after a maximum of 240 hours. Our single bet is transformed into a single session of about 60 to 80 bets. Suddenly, it becomes possible to lose up to 79 three-hour sessions but we win back everything on the 80th session or the thirtieth day of play to conclude our series.

image baccarat

To reiterate, our series transformed from 80 Martindale series becomes approximately a three hour three sessions per day for one month. You can lose any number of sessions. Any one winning session before you reach eighty sessions will conclude your series irrespective of the number of losing sessions. It is like Martindale where one win will conclude your series irrespective of the number of losing bets. Sessional series enable you to pass the losing series to the time parameter.

Why is it possible to win in gambling this way? It is because of the rules of percentage swing and the rules of absolute swing as described in one of my earlier post. Within these thirty days of play per series, you have to make sure that your system is not caught by the rule of absolute swing. To do this you have to make sure that your play always target at around 40% win rate to close the series. If you are playing predominantly HP Johnson system, the initial session is capped at 30 units. After every three days of losses, you increase to 35 units. If you continue to lose, your highest stake is capped at 80 units by the end of 30 days. This is necessary to maintain your 40% target. But you know that this does not happen in actual casino play. Experience from HP Johnson and myself have shown that our maximum losses only last three days after many years of play. Your bankroll can last one month. And you only use a small percentage of your bankroll.

So, here is the magic. You do not need to be ahead within half an hour or even three hours. For practical reasons, you can work out your gambling plan such that at worse you will be ahead after one week of losses. Theoretically, you prepare for one month. The reason is to prevent gambling tilt. You narrow down your bet spread and eliminate all the high stakes in the Martindale series. You want to maintain your ability to win in gambling without having to win more times just like Martindale. Forty per cent is the magic number.

You can never lose this way because it is very much like a gambling plan with 80-level Martindale. You have translated it into much lower stakes of bet spread but your losing streak is now theoretically one month of smart chasing of losses. Yes, from three hours to one month. Therefore, you have to approach the game step by step in order to win in gambling.

You will need at least 2000 units of bankroll. And this bankroll must be your easily affordable stake. Why? You need that to prevent gambling tilt. However, you will only use a small part of your bankroll the majority of the times.

image baccarat

For the majority of the gamblers, I do not recommend playing this way if you are going after money as a source. It is acceptable to play this way to brag or for self-gratification, to show off. It is important to understand this concept. You can see that this method of play is not suitable as a source of money. The unstable nature will somehow make you lose your money back. Because this method of play is not scalable, you must be willing to play as small as possible at all times and win peanuts with respect to your bankroll. Your peanuts are like what Neil Armstrong said when he landed on the moon, “A Small Step for a Man, A Big Leap for Mankind.

If you want more you have to play games with positive expectations.

KEY POINTS

1. Martindale shows that it is possible for one win to cover many losses. Unfortunately, Martindale cannot handle ‘not encountered’, Rule of Precentage Swing and Rule of Absolute Swing.

2. However, one session of win can cover many sessions of losses. When properly structured, this method of play can solve the double problems of ‘not encountered’ and ‘the twin rules of absolute swing and percentage swing’.


A Good Gambling Plan

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A Good Gambling Plan

Marshall Thuber was the first person to emphasize on “responsibility” as the most important success principle. He emphasized mainly on responsibility to our fellow human beings.

In your case, this translate to responsible gambling. Responsible gambling is possible only if you understand gambling theory. In other words, this also extends to responsibility in your decisions and outcomes on your gambling money. The way to do it is to set your own rules that apply to your gambling money, session duration and period of casino trip. First, you have to honour your rules. Second, you have to make sure that your rules are realistic. Being realistic means that your rules must consider and foresee all possible outcomes which may include best scenarios, worst scenarios and unexpected scenarios.

It is not easy to honour your rules. Many people refuse to honour their own rules because they were unable to accept the outcome. Usually, it is not their fault. It is just that their mental control breaks down. Only those who are emotionally mature are able to accept the outcome.

Ask yourself these questions:

What are your rules on money?
What are your rules on relationship with bankroll and playing sessions?
What are your rules on power to stop loss and power to quit?

From my experience in medical practice, I have found that when your mental control breaks down due to loss of money, relationship or power, people react in two distinct ways. First, they deviate from their rules, just like shifting the goal posts in the middle of the game. Their emotions are usually extreme. They may become extremely brave or extremely timid. Secondly, they go into grief reaction. Grief reaction is a symptom complex that manifest in many ways including depression. It usually takes up to six months for grief reactions to resolve.

At this stage, I would like to emphasize that NLP practitioners were the first persons to point out that human minds are unable to handle negative state of emotions. This in my opinion is very important but seldom emphasized. If you have not heard of NLP before, it stands for Neurolinguistic Programming. You can now see why it is important to clarify your rules on money, relationship and power. Clarity leads to power and wisdom. These three elements of money, relationship and power are your bluprint and checklist.

Your responsibility on money, relationship and power permeates every area of your lifestyle including your gambling venture. Gambling venture is not a ‘money’ venture. Gambling venture is a venture on money, your relationship with gambling money and your power to execute your gambling plan. Focus on the way you handle money, try to understand how you handle money under casino environment.

Finally, I would like to repeat what I have just mentioned. Your success or failure in gambling is not related to your ‘if only’ reasoning because each gambler play at their own comfort level. The quantum difference lies in the hazardous casino environment which can precipitate acute situational gambling behaviour and put you on gambling tilt. You have to be aware that the casino environment is affecting you in subtle ways as long as you remain in the game and even in the casino hotel.

You have to consider these elements in your gambling plan when you make your next trip to the casino. For example, you can work out the criteria when you will quit the game and when you will quit the casino.

You may still make mistakes because there are flaws in your gambling plan. However, always remember that a bad plan is better than no plan. You can always review your plan and improve on it. Start with a gambling plan. Do not procrastinate. Procrastination is the thief of time.

KEYPOINTS
1. Responsible gambling is possible only if you understand gambling theory.
2. Casino and game activities are environments with potential for hazards.
3. Human minds are unable to handle negative emotions.
4. Acute situational gambling behaviour and gambling tilt are due to irresponsible gambling, hazards of casino environment and inability of human minds to handle negative emotions.
5. You can counter these setbacks by having a good gambling plan.

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Feel like expressing your thought. Post your comment.
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FIVE TIPS TO AVOID GAMBLING TILT

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FIVE TIPS TO AVOID GAMBLING TILT

If you are new in gambling, you would invariably go into some degree of gambling tilt. Let’s assume you are playing poker. You got it all-in ahead and your fellow player suck out on you, giving you a bad beat. You would normally get upset, angry, or furious. The ability to handle this pre-tilt behaviour gets easier with time. The urge to go against optimal play or to deviate gradually fade away. This means you have become a better poker player. In other words, you learn how to be a realistic gambler. However, if you find bad beats in gambling very disturbing, you may take a look at these top five tips for dealing with them. These five tips work very well for poker players, but you can also adapt it for other casino games like baccarat, roulette, and blackjack.

Tip 1 – Understand gambling theory.

First and foremost, you must understand the gambling theory. Equity as well as negative and positive expectations of casino games work long term wheareas variance or lady luck work short term.

In poker, you may seem to think they are entitled to a pot, if you get it all-in with a set as against a flush draw. This is not true because you are going to lose the pot approximately 27% of the time. That’s almost 1/3 of the time. Understanding that these events happen frequently in poker is critical to being able to not tilt when you encounter the bad beat. This also happen in baccarat due to the third card as well as blackjack where the dealer pulls a third card to twenty-one to beat your twenty.

Tip 2 – Become process orientated not results orientated.

Being process oriented means that whether gambling is long term or short term, it is defined by process not time. The variables affecting the process depend on your gambling plan, the particular game you play and whether you start by winning or losing.

Results orientated thinking is the losers’ approach because it shows that you do not understand gambling theory. Everything you should do in gambling should be defined by your gambling plan. In games where you can find positive expectations, you would maximize your expectation in every given hand. If you associate losing with playing bad you are making a mistake. Its perfectly normal to play according to your gambling plan and lose due to variance, bad luck and bad beats. Likewise, it is possible to make several mistakes and yet win on a particular session. To win in gambling, you have to be process orientated, not result oriented.

Tip 3 –Losing short term despite good play is part of gambling

In poker, without bad beats, the fish would not play. Fish gamble on poker but not chess because chess is a game where superior players always win. The reason fish gamble is because they are convinced they can win on their lucky days. Hence, they keep playing in the future despite being long term losers. Variance, bad beats and instant gratification are what keep the fish playing because it gives them psychological flick and hope. If the fish were to loose every single hand, do you think they would continue to play. They would have long stayed away from gambling.

If you are too much insecure to your relationship, you cannot get the real taste of loving and living purchase levitra with each other. And you need these pills every time you go india viagra generic http://frankkrauseautomotive.com/cars-for-sale/page/3/ for sex. These 8 stranded ropes were so useful that, it reduced the use sildenafil samples of 6 stranded ropes. Erectile dysfunction is not a familiar word but it do has an alternative name that people are aware of the far-reaching effect that food can have on your overall health. purchase cialis online frankkrauseautomotive.com Just think of it like this, every time a fish bad beats you, you are giving them hope. They don’t understand odds, probability, variance, value betting, gambling tilt and the time management and money management skills that make you a winning poker gambler. All they understand is lady luck as well as winning and losing. When the fish wins, the fish keeps coming back. It is sort of cruel to think that way. You give them hope when you know they are going to lose a lot of money in the long run. But then, this is poker.

Tip 4 –Bad beats are good for skilful players

Bad beats and bad luck happen to every gambler and are a way in which you can gain reciprocal profits on your fellow players. Look at it this way. How you handle bad beats determine what you are make of. It is a test of your strength and your maturity not to tilt. If you don’t tilt in a situation when another gambler would have tilted, you have made some reciprocal money. Just as you can make money from your opponents by making better betting decisions, you can also make money with regard to tilting. If you don’t tilt, and your opponents tilt, you win. In fact, you can make money from exploiting gambling tilt.

Tip 5 – Know your breaking point and tolerance limit

Every gambler has a breaking point or tolerance limit. The breaking point is an imaginary stop loss limit, the maximum amount of money you can afford to lose within your gambling plan. The tolerance limit may also refer to situations that cause gamblers to play irrationally. Self-awareness, a good gambling plan, matured personality and discipline are the the keys to stop playing long before you reach that point. Casino games and poker are supposed to be fun. For skilful players, it is a profitable way to spend your time. Any time in which you are not having fun and are not playing your best, its best to quit, take a break, have a good rest and return to gamble wisely.

To summarize, in this post I hope you learn how to use gambling theory to construct a gambling plan that help you to stay off gambling tilt.

gambling tilt tips

gambling tilt



FURTHER DISCUSSION ON GAMBLING TILT

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FURTHER DISCUSSION ON GAMBLING TILT

You can’t beat the casino if you have immatured personality. You need to train yourself to acquire the necessary matured personality to beat the casino. Stop gambling if you have an immatured personality. Casino is a dangerous place full of potential hazards. Authorities have good reasons why persons under 21 years of age are not allowed to enter the casino. You can use the tools in my personal-development website to assess your personality maturity level.

Here are the practical ways you can use to handle gambling tilt. Your have to outline your gambling plan on the actions you would respond to gambling tilt.

1.Simply Quitting

In your gambling plan, you have to decide ahead under what scenarios or situations you will quit.

Simply quitting is the best way to ensure that you are not going to tilt. The problem with this remedy is that it is very hard to put into practice. When you are losing money, the last thing that you prefer to do is quit while you are down. The more immediate reaction is to attempt and recover the losses. While this gambling behaviour is normal, it is important to recognize it as a pre-tilt behaviour. The reason is you are perpectuating the bad habit, and your pre-tilt behaviour will one day become a full blown tilt.

Gamblers who go on crazy tilt would end up losing lots of money out of proportion to their modest wins in the long run. Losing in your tilted play will make you even more angry, which is again only going to add fuel to the fire.

2. Switch Games

Another popular way for gamblers to minimize the effects of gambling tilt is to switch games. For a poker tournament gambler, it wouldn’t exactly make sense to go to a cash game table when you are on tilt as this would be expected to only add to the pre-existing losses. If you are a poker cash game gambler, you may move to a much lower stake. However, you may very well play differently once you realize that the money won’t be easily won back through a few fortunate double ups. Taking yourself out of the poker game limit where you can potentially win back your money will also mean that you are also out of the situation where you are prone to tilt. If you prefer, you can even move to the absolute lowest limit games and just go crazy. You can take your bankroll down to lowest limit games until you feel comfortable to play optimally.

3. Learn relaxation techniques.

The principle is when your physiology changes your state of mind automatically follows.

So, breathe extremely slowly, as slow as you can. When you breath this way, it is impossible to be angry. Slow breathing force your physiology to relax. The first thing to do is take a slow deep breath. Breathing gets more oxygen to the brain and will help clear up your thinking. It is the first thing you are taught if you have ever tried any form of meditation or deep relaxation exercises. It is very simple and can be done right at the table or slot machine where you are playing. Take in a deep breath through your nose. Preferably, practise alternate nose breathing for balance. Breath in through the left nose and breath out through the right nose and vice versa. Also, make sure you use the abdominal muscles to breath. This is to ensure diaphramatic breathing. Hold your breath while counting to four. Slowly exhale through your mouth. Count to six as you breath out. Repeat this four times.

And remember this is only a temporary solution. Next, you have to identify the trigger.

4. Taking a Break

Taking a break is another good option when you are trying to eliminate the gambling tilt.

Taking a break does not mean that you should simply take a short walk and then simply return to the table. Though you may attempt to trick yourself into thinking otherwise, a short break will not eliminate the tilt from your game. If anything, a minor setback in your first few hands can put you into full blown tilt. Taking breaks can reduce tilt, but you need to be careful that you must never cut the break short. The duration of break should be long enough for the tilt to resolve completely. You should be away from the casino for a period of time until you have got rid of the urge to deviate from optimal play.

5. Go For a Walk

If deep breathing does not calm you, get up, leave the table or slot machine and take a walk around the casino. If the walk does not soothe you, go to the rest room and wash your face and hands with cool water. If you are still feeling upset then you should take a longer break. Go get something to eat or drink. Sitting down to enjoy a cup of coffee or a soft drink can help you to relax. You should avoid drinking anything alcoholic when you are upset. If that doesn’t work then quit for the day. If possible, go home.

6. Duration of stay (Alternative activity)

The length of your stay at the casino matters. If you are only on a day trip you have the option of just going home and putting an end to your losing day. If you cannot leave or want to stay at the casino, you have to plan ahead all the alternatives when you feel you are on the verge of tilting.

CASE STUDY

Everyone knows that the casino has the edge on most games and the house will win in the long run. However, in the short term luck will be a big factor in determining whether you win or lose. This is true of games that have positive expectations as well as games with a high house edge. When you visit the casino you stick to the games where you have the edge but like every other gambler, you are at the mercy of the Lady Luck.

Let’s study this case based on a true story.

Amy went on a ten days casino vacation. Unfortunately, Lady Luck abandoned her. She spent the next five days living every gamblers nightmare by losing every session she played. She tried baccarat, roulette, blackjack, video poker, Texas Holdem, slots and even entered a number of tournaments. Nothing would work and by the fourth day she was literally talking to herself as she watched her bankroll dwindle. She felt as if she was going to succumb to gambling tilt.

TILT

Going on tilt is the expression used when poker gamblers become upset and lose control of their emotions. Consequently they start making poor decisions and play badly and irrationally. Going on tilt is not confined just to poker gamblers. Anyone who gambles on any casino game can find themselves on tilt. Once a gambler starts losing money, they become vulnerable to tilt. They have lost money and they try to make it back quickly by raising the size of their bets or playing a higher denomination slot machine. This will usually just lead to more losses.

A classical casino scene is when a gambler get to the point where they just don’t care how much money they have lost. A gambler may be down a few hundred dollars and then figure “What the heck does another hundred matter?” It will matter a lot the next day to most gamblers but at the spur of the moment they will just blow good money after bad.

SOLUTION

Take a Day Off. Time to cool off is the best antidote to gambling tilt. If you are visiting the casino for several days as she was, you don’t have the option of going home but that does not mean you have to stay in the casino and gamble. She knew that she had to get away from the gambling for a while. After four days of losing she decided to do something different.

The next morning she went sightseeing around town. Later that day she bought a book and read it at the hotel poolside. She had a nice dinner that night and then went to see a show before turning in. As she got into bed she reflected on the fact that she had spent a whole day of her casino vacation without making a single bet. It did wonders for her mental health. She actually had an enjoyable day and found a way to relax during her prolonged losing streak. The next day she awoke refreshed and was looking forward to playing one more session before heading to the airport to fly home. She lost!

She remember hearing that winning is easy but losing brings out the true character in a person. How you handle adversity is a true test of you inner strength. Sometimes you just need to know when to throw in the towel and quit. “He who fights and runs away, lives to fight another day.”

That’s what she chose to do. The casino will still be there on my next trip and maybe Lady Luck will even join me next time. However, this trip she learned that she could handle a prolonged losing streak and although she was beaten, she wasn’t defeated. She had lost the battle but not yet the war.

ANALYSIS

Generally, poker is considered by most gamblers as a game of skill. However, you must also remember that the luck factor can affect the outcome in a small or big way. It is important to learn to deal with the variance due to luck factor. The ability to handle variance comes from a good gambling plan couple with consistent practice as well as good habits and conditioning.

During the poker game you can be affected by various elements, which can cause us to lose concentration on the game or can get us feel uncomfortable, or even lead us to an altered state or stressed, and sooner or later, the tilt will be inevitable. All gamblers must know these causes since this can help them better manage their emotions. If a gambler is able to recognize his emotion before it gets out of control, this will be the first step towards combating the tilt phenomenon.

However, we are not always prepared to face all odds in the game. And the problem behind tilting is a very basic one. Human minds are attracted to the good and avoid or drawn away from the evil. This create a very imbalance mental state such that human minds become skilful at handling the good but extremely unskilful at handling the evil.
While it is true that tilt may be a bad thing for a poker gambler, there is also a positive side to this and it is tilt can be used to our advantage as a powerful tool to defeat other gamblers. The reason is most gamblers do not know this secret that human minds are extremely unskilful at handling the evil. In gambling situations the evil refers to gambling losses.

A useful technique but little known is to talk to your opponents. The goal is to make them lose concentration, or simply to research them and anticipate their next moves, making them go on tilt.

Gambling tilt is the greatest enemy of your bankroll in gambling. Discipline by itself does not work. For discipline to work, you must have a gambling plan against gambling tilt.

To summarize

1. Gamblers need to have a matured personality to handle gambling tilt.
2. The practical methods of simply quitting, switch games, relaxation exercises, taking a break, go for a walk and alternative activity are very effective because changes in physiology spontaneously changes your state of mind.
3. Discipline works only if gamblers have a gambling plan against gambling tilt.
4. A gambling plan and matured personality is necessary to prevent gambling tilt.

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If you would like to read further, these books are strongly recommended.

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