FIVE TIPS TO AVOID GAMBLING TILT

FIVE TIPS TO AVOID GAMBLING TILT

If you are new in gambling, you would invariably go into some degree of gambling tilt. Let’s assume you are playing poker. You got it all-in ahead and your fellow player suck out on you, giving you a bad beat. You would normally get upset, angry, or furious. The ability to handle this pre-tilt behaviour gets easier with time. The urge to go against optimal play or to deviate gradually fade away. This means you have become a better poker player. In other words, you learn how to be a realistic gambler. However, if you find bad beats in gambling very disturbing, you may take a look at these top five tips for dealing with them. These five tips work very well for poker players, but you can also adapt it for other casino games like baccarat, roulette, and blackjack.

Tip 1 – Understand gambling theory.

First and foremost, you must understand the gambling theory. Equity as well as negative and positive expectations of casino games work long term wheareas variance or lady luck work short term.

In poker, you may seem to think they are entitled to a pot, if you get it all-in with a set as against a flush draw. This is not true because you are going to lose the pot approximately 27% of the time. That’s almost 1/3 of the time. Understanding that these events happen frequently in poker is critical to being able to not tilt when you encounter the bad beat. This also happen in baccarat due to the third card as well as blackjack where the dealer pulls a third card to twenty-one to beat your twenty.

Tip 2 – Become process orientated not results orientated.

Being process oriented means that whether gambling is long term or short term, it is defined by process not time. The variables affecting the process depend on your gambling plan, the particular game you play and whether you start by winning or losing.

Results orientated thinking is the losers’ approach because it shows that you do not understand gambling theory. Everything you should do in gambling should be defined by your gambling plan. In games where you can find positive expectations, you would maximize your expectation in every given hand. If you associate losing with playing bad you are making a mistake. Its perfectly normal to play according to your gambling plan and lose due to variance, bad luck and bad beats. Likewise, it is possible to make several mistakes and yet win on a particular session. To win in gambling, you have to be process orientated, not result oriented.

Tip 3 –Losing short term despite good play is part of gambling

In poker, without bad beats, the fish would not play. Fish gamble on poker but not chess because chess is a game where superior players always win. The reason fish gamble is because they are convinced they can win on their lucky days. Hence, they keep playing in the future despite being long term losers. Variance, bad beats and instant gratification are what keep the fish playing because it gives them psychological flick and hope. If the fish were to loose every single hand, do you think they would continue to play. They would have long stayed away from gambling.

If you are too much insecure to your relationship, you cannot get the real taste of loving and living purchase levitra with each other. And you need these pills every time you go india viagra generic http://frankkrauseautomotive.com/cars-for-sale/page/3/ for sex. These 8 stranded ropes were so useful that, it reduced the use sildenafil samples of 6 stranded ropes. Erectile dysfunction is not a familiar word but it do has an alternative name that people are aware of the far-reaching effect that food can have on your overall health. purchase cialis online frankkrauseautomotive.com Just think of it like this, every time a fish bad beats you, you are giving them hope. They don’t understand odds, probability, variance, value betting, gambling tilt and the time management and money management skills that make you a winning poker gambler. All they understand is lady luck as well as winning and losing. When the fish wins, the fish keeps coming back. It is sort of cruel to think that way. You give them hope when you know they are going to lose a lot of money in the long run. But then, this is poker.

Tip 4 –Bad beats are good for skilful players

Bad beats and bad luck happen to every gambler and are a way in which you can gain reciprocal profits on your fellow players. Look at it this way. How you handle bad beats determine what you are make of. It is a test of your strength and your maturity not to tilt. If you don’t tilt in a situation when another gambler would have tilted, you have made some reciprocal money. Just as you can make money from your opponents by making better betting decisions, you can also make money with regard to tilting. If you don’t tilt, and your opponents tilt, you win. In fact, you can make money from exploiting gambling tilt.

Tip 5 – Know your breaking point and tolerance limit

Every gambler has a breaking point or tolerance limit. The breaking point is an imaginary stop loss limit, the maximum amount of money you can afford to lose within your gambling plan. The tolerance limit may also refer to situations that cause gamblers to play irrationally. Self-awareness, a good gambling plan, matured personality and discipline are the the keys to stop playing long before you reach that point. Casino games and poker are supposed to be fun. For skilful players, it is a profitable way to spend your time. Any time in which you are not having fun and are not playing your best, its best to quit, take a break, have a good rest and return to gamble wisely.

To summarize, in this post I hope you learn how to use gambling theory to construct a gambling plan that help you to stay off gambling tilt.

gambling tilt tips

gambling tilt



Gambling Theory – Variance and Mathematical Expectation

Gambling Theory – Variance and Mathematical Expectation

and how to use it to make money in tie bets in baccarat (strongly recommended)

Vegas World casino owner Bob Stupak said, “Having one-thousandth of one percent the worst of it, if he plays long enough, that one-thousandth of one percent will bust the richest man in the world.”

As you know, Bob Stupak own the casino Stratosphere.

I played once in Stratosphere casino. I played 0.2% odds blackjack. For the first four days, I lost US$500 despite card counting. This was due to variance. I received plenty of stiff cards. When you get stiff cards in blackjack, the odds against you averages 15%.

There was nothing much I could do except to take loss. Then, I went to attend a Medical Seminar in Palm Spring followed by a Medical Evaluation Examination.

Subsequently, I returned to Stratosphere casino and continued to play blackjack the same way. Surprisingly, variance and positive expectations came to my rescue. By the end of third day, I won US$700 for a net win of US$200.

Gambling Theory involve ideas that frequently involve concepts that are deep, abstract and subtle.

This post is about the general theories and concepts of gambling, which apply to nearly all casino games – baccarat, roulette, blackjack, Tai-Sai, and Poker.

Beginning recreational gamblers always make flawed assumptions.
They belief that lady luck, systems and money management give them the edge to beat the casino.

By explaining the logic of gambling, this post will, I hope, show the gambler what kinds of stuffs to focus on in order to become a better gambler.

To illustrate the concepts presented, I prefer to use these five games – baccarat, roulette, blackjack, Mini-dice, and Poker.

Gambling theory is not easy, but a careful reading of it should reap rich rewards.

Mathematical expectation is the amount a bet will average winning or losing. It is an extremely important concept for the gambler because it shows him how to evaluate most gambling problems. Using mathematical expectation is also the best way to analyze most situations where you can find positive expected values.

Let’s say you are betting with a friend $1, even money, on the flip of a coin. Each time it comes up heads, you win; each time it comes up tails, you lose. The odds of its coming up heads are 1-to-1, and you’re betting $l-to-$l. Therefore, your mathematical expectation is precisely zero since you cannot expect, mathematically, to be either ahead or behind after two flips or after 200 flips.

Your hourly rate is also zero. Hourly rate is the amount of money you expect to win per hour. You might be able to flip a coin 500 times an hour, but since you are getting neither good nor bad odds, you will neither earn nor lose money. From a serious gambler’s point of view, this betting proposition is not a bad one. It’s just a waste of time.

But let’s say some ‘fish’ is willing to bet $2 to your $1 on the flip of the coin. Suddenly you have a positive expectation of 50 cents per bet. Why 50 cents? On the average you will win one bet for every bet you lose. You wager your first dollar and lose $1; you wager your second and win $2. You have wagered $1 twice, and you are $1 ahead. Each of these $1 bets has earned 50 cents.

If you can manage 500 flips of the coin per hour, your hourly rate is now $250, because on average you will lose one dollar 250 times and win two dollars 250 times $500 minus $250 equals a $250 net win. Notice again that your mathematical expectation, which is the amount you will average winning per bet, is 50 cents. You have won $250 after betting a dollar 500 limes: That works out to be 50 cents per bet.

Mathematical expectation has nothing to do with results. The ‘fish’ might win the first ten coin flips in a row, but betting 2-to-l odds on an even-money proposition, you still earn 50 cents per $1 bet. It makes no difference whether you win or lose a specific bet or series of bets as long as you have a bankroll to cover your losses easily.

If you continue to make these bets, you will win, and in the long run your win will approach specifically the sum of your expectations.

Anytime you make a bet with the best of it, where the odds are in your favour, you have earned something on that bet, whether you actually win or lose the bet. In the same way, when you make a bet with the worst of it, where the odds are not in your favour, you have lost something, whether you actually win or lose the bet.

You have the best of it when you have a positive expectation, and you have a positive expectation when the odds are in your favour. You have the worst of it when you have a negative expectation, and you have a negative expectation when the odds are against you. Serious gamblers bet only when they have the best of it; when they have the worst of it, they do not bet.

What does it mean to have the odds in your favour? It means winning more on a result than the true odds warrant. The true odds of a coin’s coming up heads are 1-to-l, but you’re getting 2-to-l for your money. The odds in this instance are in your favour. You have the best of it with a positive expectation of 50 cents per bet.

Mathematical expectation is at the heart of every gambling situation, When a bookie requires football bettors to lay $11 to win $10, he has a positive expectation of 50 cents per $10 bet. When a casino pays even money on the PLAYER bet at the baccarat table, it has a positive expectation of about $1.36 per $100 bet since the game is structured so that the PLAYER bettor will lose 103 decisions for every 100 decisions he win.

Indeed it is this seemingly minuscule positive expectation that provides casinos around the world with all their enormous profits. This is something that casino knows but don’t want gamblers to know.

In most gambling situations like casino baccarat (except ties), craps and roulette, the odds on any given bet are constant. In others like blackjack and poker, they change, and mathematical expectation can show you how to evaluate a particular situation.

In blackjack, for instance, to determine the right play, mathematicians have calculated your expectation playing a hand one way and your expectation playing it another way.

Whichever play gives you a higher positive expectation or a lower negative expectation is the right one For example, when you have a 16 against the dealer’s 10, you’re a favourite to lose.

However, when that 16 is 8,8, your best play is to surrender and lose half the bets. If surrender is not allowed, your second best is to split the 8s, doubling your bet. By splitting the 8s against the dealer’s 10, you still lose but lose less. Splitting do not give you the edge. Splitting helps you to lose less. You have a lower negative expectation than if you simply hit every time you had an 8,8 against a 10.

In the long run a gambler’s overall win or loss is the sum of his mathematical expectations in individual situations. The more bets you make with a positive expectation, the bigger winner you stand to be. The more bets you make with a negative expectation, the bigger loser you stand to be. Therefore, you should almost always try to make the bet that will maximize your positive expectation or minimize your negative expectation.

If you choose to play baccarat, I recommend playing ties towards the end of the shoes despite the 14% odds in ties. In blackjack, the odds can fluctuate two ways, either against you or in favour of you. In baccarat, the odds always fluctuate in the direction in favour of you.

I repeat:

IN BACCARAT TIE BETS, THE ODDS ALWAYS FLUCTUATE IN FAVOUR OF YOU.

When the odds remain the same or out by one number, do not bet. You can bet when at least two numbers are eliminated.

You need not be exact. Approximation is sufficient. Practise playing this way for some time and you will fall in love with another game where you can find plenty of similar situations. That game is professional poker. Evaluation of mathematical expectation is the bread and butter of professional poker.

With this post, I hope, you will learn how to spot situations with positive expected values in order to make money. In case you are barred for winning with tie bets, you can always switch over to professional poker.

If you have any questions email me at

soondr@gmail.com

Subscribe to

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Gambling Theory Can Help You Become Better Gamblers

Gambling Theory Can Help You Become Better Gamblers

If you have been following my blog as well as my post in baccaratforums,
you will roughly understand my mindset and how I approach the casino games.

To summarize for the benefit of those who have not been following:-

1. I remind the public that baccarat is unbeatable long term because the expected value is negative. See my definition for ‘unbeatable’.

2. That positive expected value in baccarat can be found in the tie game especially towards the end of the shoe. This can be used for long term play.

3. That lady luck, systems and money management action are garbage for long term play.

4. That short term is different from long term. It is defined by process not time.

5. That it is possible to turn lady luck, system and money management action into your friend by devising a short term strategy.

6. An example of a short term strategy for tourist play is my bet banker only strategy in 5% baccarat.

7. The method that I used to win 160,000 over ten months is an example of a short term strategy.

8. Smart chasing of losses is an example of short term strategy. For it to work, players must start by winning.

9. Positive expected values can easily be found in professional poker. 10% of long term poker players are winners.

10. Collectively all the concepts mentioned above can be summarized as gambling theory.

click here to subscribe to my free gambling courses:

Free Gambling Courses

11. I like the inspiring statement made by a Singaporean. So I post it here:

“I agree with the position that to help gambling addicts, one must help them become better gamblers. Once they understand gambling theory, the smart ones will leave gambling for good or small trips, the not-so-smart ones become living examples of their recklessness/arrogance/stupidity.”

12. Once they become better gamblers, they can easily quit with pride and dignity.

13. The not-so-smart-ones will need help to quit gambling.
Gambling anonymous organizations, trained counsellors and psychiatrist and
my gamblinghelp project can help them to quit gambling.

click here to subscribe to my free gambling courses:

Free Gambling Courses

You have to be clear on the above because I am going to post a series of articles illustrating how our professional forefathers beat the casino based on these principles of the gambling theory.

gambling theory

thumbnail gambling theory

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How to Quit Gambling – Introduction

gambling help

How to quit gambling

A Singaporean by the username “TheWholeBank” post a very wise comment in my thread “Any one need help in gambling” in the baccarat forums. Read slowly his comment. Do not scan. The comment is:

“I agree with the position that to help gambling addicts, one must help them become better gamblers.
Once they understand gambling theory, the smart ones will leave gambling for good or small trips, the not-so-smart ones become living examples of their recklessness/arrogance/stupidity.”

I agree that to quit gambling you have to become better gamblers. Learning to become better gambler is the way to quit gambling. Play less for recreation only is the same as responsible gambling. This is described as “small trips” by “thewholebank”

My reply was
“A wise summary.
The smart ones can take care of themselves.
The not-so-smart ones need help
Cognitive behaviour therapy is the answer.

The question is how do you know whether you are the smart ones or the not-so-smart-ones.

Compulsive gamblers got scammed by the casino for years. They have difficulty seeking help because the sucker opportunists continue to scam them to perpectuate their flawed gambling habits. Finally, they give up seeking help and cause unnecessary hardships to himself, his family and the society at large. These compulsive gamblers come from all walks of life.

“They become living examples of recklessness, arrogance and stupidity”. Thanks to his post, the smart Singaporean sincerely teaches us not to be reckless, not to be arrogant, not to be stupid.

This remind me of the book by Professor Morteimer Feinberg
“Why Smart People do dumb things.” It is an excellent book. I like it.
He concluded that a matured personality is the answer to prevent yourself from being reckless, arrogant and stupid.

The definition I particularly liked for a mature personality is based on Mortimer Feinberg’s six basic principles of maturity. (In this context, maturity means growth in emotional maturity). See how I approach these six basic principles. Again read slowly. Do not scan. Pay special attention to the first two — accept yourself and accept others.

1. Accept yourself.
Accept yourself is the most important of the six principles and the hardest to achieve. Only if you can accept yourself with all your faults then only can you accept others with all their strengths and weaknesses

2. Accept others.
When you can accept others you will realize that human beings are interdependent. You will stop being frightened at the idea of depending on others. At times we need help. People need people. No matter how smart we are, our cognitive power can carry us that far. We are unable to shoulder the responsibility of life’s multitudinous tasks.

3. Keep your sense of humour.
A sense of humour is an important adjunct of maturity. But make sure it is mature humour, not immature, sarcastic humour. It is always good to laugh off the dark side of life. Laughing off is also a good way to handle massive frustration.

4. Appreciate simple pleasures.
One of the biggest setback of life is gratification. Rich people become poor because of impulsive gratification. Gratification is a vice. Matured person takes steps to eliminate gratification from their lifestyle. As such, matured persons are always humble.

5. Enjoy the present
This gives meanings to life. Do not postpone your need for gratification. Robert Kiyosaki call this delay gratification. In my opinion, delay gratification is wrong. Matured person do not need it. Eliminate delay gratification from your matured life. Substitue gratification with enjoy the present.

6. Welcome Work
Basically, this means that your good health and education as well as your achievement in money, relationship and power do not come naturally. You have to pro-actively work at it. Therefore, a matured person must welcome work at these areas of private victory (health, education) and public victory (money, relationship, power)

If you would like to read further you can preview them at my personal-development website.

Personal Development

or you can email me at soondr@gmail.com
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Problem gamblers or their close ones can contact gamblinghelp for advise and assistance.

Mild cases can be handled by private email to me at

soondr@gmail.com

It is free and will always be.”

For severe cases you will need several months of counselling sessions (cognitive behaviour therapy) by trained counsellors and/or psychiatrists.
Sometimes medications are used especially in cases with suicidal tendencies.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

You can quit gambling by joining my affiliate program

I have created a business plan so that the smart ones can have the opportunity to join me in affiliate marketing. You see, I also need help from affiliates and the public who buy my ebooks through my affiliates.

You will notice in my flowchart that I cover a comprehensive package in the subject of gambling in my gamblinghelp project.

click here to see the flowchart

gamblinghelp2_flowchart

I am writing three ebooks to be sold to the public by the end of 12 months.

One ebook on recreational gambling
One ebook on professional gambling
One ebook on quit gambling

During these 12 months I am training my supporters and followers in affiliate marketing, so that they can sell my ebooks and earn commissions, usually about 50%. (This decision will be made later). Buyers cannot buy directly from me. They have to buy from any one of my affiliates. This is to protect the interest of my affiliates. Top affiliates generally earn more than US$10,000 per month after two years of hard work. Give it a try.

To start off, sign up for my free gambling courses.

I recruit my affiliate by INVITATION or RECOMMENDATION only.

However, you can preview my affiliate signup site at

Easy Affiliate Money

To start off, you have to sign up for my free gambling courses at

Free Gambling Courses

Priority is given to them because they know the content of the ebook.

A small percentage of the profit from the sales will go to charity to help the not-so-smart-ones.

Then repeat the cycle in any project you do.

Its is a numbers game.

Click here to get started

Easy Affiliate Money

quit gambling

thumbnail quit gambling

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