How to track odds in baccarat and other common casino games

The assumption of this post is that you are familiar with third card rules in baccarat. If you are not familiar you have to check out on the rules first then come back and read the post.

The Casino Odds for Baccarat are given as follows. For player bet, the house edge is 1.36%. For banker bets, the house edge is 1.18%. Form tie bets, the house edge is 14.4% (if the casino pays 8 to 1). Some casinos pay 9 to 1 for tie bet. In that case, the odds drop to 4.84% for a eight deck shoe.

You can also look at it another way. For every 100 times that player wins, banker wins 103 times. Banker get taxed five times. Therefore, banker theoretically wins 98 times. In other words for every 100 bets, if you play banker you lose two bets, if you play player you lose three bets.

However, if you are observant enough, you will notice that in baccarat you can have symmetrical play when two cards end the game and asymmetrical play when the third card drawing rules end the game. Banker has no advantage over player in two card symmetrical play. Yet 5% is taken away on winning banker bets. In symmetrical play you breakeven by betting player as the house odd is zero.

However, banker has 15.7% edge over player in third card asymmetrical play. If you are counting cards for tie bets, you should be able to tell when the remaining deck is dense in small cards and when they are dense in high cards. In high cards you should expect symmetrical play because both player and banker bets stand on points seven, eight and nine. In low cards especially in situations where the chances of forming four and five points are high, banker has substantial edge over player because of the high incidence of third card play. Bankers’ greatest edge comes mainly from third card rules especially on four and five points, and a little advantage for three and six points. Third card play gives banker 15.7% advantage whereas you pay only 5% commission.

I repeat third card play gives banker 15.7% advantage whereas you pay only 5% commission. Your edge over the casino is 15.7% minus 5% equal 10.2%.
However, the house edge over banker is 5% in symmetrical play. Since symmetrical play happens 90% of the time, overall casino has the edge over banker bet at 1.18%
To win in banker bets you must create strategy to avoid banker bets in symmetrical play. Notice that in symmetrical play, the house odds on player bet is always zero. Therefore, you cannot win money on player bet but you can take advantage of player bet for casino rewards.

You have seen how the casino management manipulate the rules of play in baccarat to produce a small, yet measurable advantage for the house for both player and banker bets, and a steep jump in advantage for tie bets. The third card rules are introduced so that banker wins 50.68% of all non-tie hands and the player wins 49.32%. The difference between the two 50.68 minus 49.32 is 1.36, hence a 1.36 house edge against the “player” bet.

So why then does the banker bet offer no real house advantage if it wins 50.68% or more than half of the time? Well, casinos are definitely aware of this advantage. If they allow the game to be played while giving up an edge to gamblers, the game would not be around anymore. Casinos have taken this skewed even-odd discrepancy into account, and made adjustments to tilt the advantage back into their favour by way of a 5% commission on winning banker bets. The banker bet odds can be calculated as follows. Let’s say you are betting 100 times or 100%. Winning banker bets are taxed 5%, so you will win 0.95 for every one unit wagered. Expecting to win 50.68% of the time, multiply 0.95 by 50.68 and you get 48.14. You still can expect to lose 49.32, and the difference is 1.18, resulting in a 1.18% house advantage.

Tie bets happen approximately 9.55% of the time, but the true odds of a tie bet are 9.47 to 1. Extending 9.55 into 100 gives you 10.47 and considering that you will get back your original bet , the correct odds are 9.47 to 1. So, when you win a tie bet, you should be paid 10.47 units, but you are only paid 9 units. The difference or shortfall is 1.47. This shortfall of 1.47 out of 10.47 gives you the house edge of 14.4% advantage. You might be tempted by the 8 to 1 payout, but the odds on this bet are unfavourable compared to the banker and player bets. Mathematical expectation shows that despite winning banker bet being taxed 5% as commission, banker bet still offers the most favourable odds in baccarat, and over time you can expect to lose less by playing more banker.

The tie bet has been known to pay 9 to 1 at some casinos. For example Binion’s Horseshoe in Las Vegas used to, and the Bodog online casino pays 9 to 1. The expected value on the tie bet if it pays 9 to 1 is -4.844% in a 8 deck shoe.

The standard baccarat offered in Resort World Genting and Resort World Sentosa is B6 baccarat. In B6 baccarat, also known as no commision baccarat, the house does not collect the 5% commission. To compensate for that the house pays half the bet when banker wins on six points. Half the bet is equivalent to ten times of 5% or 50%. In other words, for each time that banker wins on six points, the house collects ten times commission. And, of course six points win more often than five, four, three, two and one points. In effect, the banker odds rise substantially to 1.69, much higher than the player odds. If you translate this back into commission for every winning banker bet, this works out to 7% commssion, an alarming 40% increase in commission. The player odds remain the same at 1.36. In contrast to traditional baccarat, you can expect to lose less by playing more player in B6 baccarat.

If possible try to avoid B6 Baccarat or 7% baccarat, as I like to call it. Play only 5% traditional baccarat.

Casino Odds for Roulette, Mini-dice, Tai-Sai, Casino War, Blackjack, Pontoon, modified Texas Holdem

In single zero roulette, the odds for even-odd bet is 2.56. Here even-odd refers to big-small, black-red, and even-odd, not just even-odd alone. If you play single number, you will notice that winning bet get paid 36 times. This is a great deal by casino standards because you get a leverage of 36 times yet the odds remain at 2.56. You can compare with the following Texas Holdem poker bet to see for yourself.

Some casinos offer a modified form of Texas Holdem Poker where the the house book all the bets. The house do not collect commission. I noticed that the house also offer bonus bets. For example if you bet 100 bonus bet, and you get two aces, the house get the remaining two aces, you will be paid 100 times or 10,000. For all the four aces to come together your probability is 13x13x13x13. If you just compare this with the four digit lottery or magnum, you will notice that if you win the four digit first prize your probalility is much lower at 10x10x10x10. If you bet 100, you are paid between 200,000 to 300,000. Just compare 10,000 with 200,00 to 300,000 and figure out what you are doing. I do not wish to explain or elaborate any further.

In Tai Sai and mini-dice, the odds for even-odd bet is 2.8

In casino war the odd is 3.5%

In pontoon, the odd is 0.6%

In blackjack, where you are allowed to double on any two cards and the dealer’s hole card is not an ace, the odd is 0.2%. (I played this game in Stratosphere LasVegas before for one week and won US$500)

In the type of blackjack you see in Resort World Genting and Resort World Sentosa, the odd is 0.8% assuming you play the basic strategy. This is how you work out the odds in blackjack. If you play ‘mimic the dealer’ you will bust 28% of the time. The house advantage comes from double bust. So, double bust gives the house 8% edge. But the house compensates the player by giving back 3 to 2 for blackjack. Player blackjack advantage accounts for 2.5%. So, mimic the dealer gives the house 5.5% edge. Basic strategy on standing, doubling and splitting reduces the house edge to 0.8%.

In blackjack the odds fluctuate in both directions depending on the cards on the remaining deck. Hence, it is important to track the odds. So, you can assume for example the odds are 0.8 plus or minus 2.8. This equal to +2 to minus 3.6. Counting card will tell you when you are playing with 2% advantage and when you are playing with 3.6% disadvantage. No joke 3.6% disadvantage. Quit and run from this shoe! Counting cards tell you when to bet higher and how much in proportion to your advantage (Kelly’s criteria). Counting cards also tell you how to deviate from basic strategy according to your count.

Poker odds and other casino advantage play like excessive seeding in progressive jackpots, casino promotions, casino tournaments, casino match vouchers, casino junket programs, sports betting are addressed in separate posts.

KEY POINTS
1. Know the odds in all the games you play.
2. In baccarat, banker does not have any edge over player in symmetrical two card play yet have to pay 5% on commission on winning bets.
3. Bet player in symmetrical play gives you zero odds. Your advantage comes from casino rewards if there is any.
4. In 5% baccarat, banker has a 15.7 % edge over player in third card asymmetrical play.
5. Bankers’ greatest edge comes mainly from third card rules on four and five points, and a little from three and six points. Third card play gives banker 15.7% advantage whereas you pay only 5% commission.
6. This situation of third card play can be exploited to win on banker bets.
7. Whenever possible, monitor and track the odds. Odd tracking is your key to advantage play and winning. This works in tie bets in baccarat, banker bets to exploit third card play and counting cards in blackjack.
8. If possible avoid B6 baccarat or 7% baccarat and play only 5% baccarat.
9. Avoid games where you are unable to track odds.

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