1. In symmetrical play, player has zero odds. The odds for banker is 2.5%.
2. In asymmetrical play, banker has 15.7% advantage over player. After 5% commission, banker advantage is 10.2%.
3. Symmetrical play occurs in 90% of the bets.
Therefore, you exploit asymmetrical play to win in banker bets.
Here is how I do it.
You will notice that symmetrical play occurs in points 0,1,2,7,8,9.
Asymmetrical play occurs when banker two cards show 3,4,5,6.
You will also notice that in this set of numbers 0,1,2,7,8,9, the first three numbers always end up as three cards symmetrical play whereas the last three numbers 7,8,9 always trigger two cards symmetrical play.
You will work out your strategy step by step.
Divide into three groups.
Group A covers points 7, 8, 9
Group B covers points 1 and 2
Group C covers points zero.
The differences in Groups A, B and C are only important in borderline scenarios.
In Group A, your goal is to eliminate points 7, 8, 9 in the outcome.
Scenario 1
When the remaining cards are 10, J, Q, K, 1, single 2 and a single 3, points seven , eight and nine can never be formed. You have eliminated the three essential points. Your advantage to bet banker is 10.2%.
Scenario 2
When the remaining cards are 10, J, Q, K, 1, 2, points seven , eight and nine can never be formed. Bet banker.
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When the remaining cards are 10, J, Q, K, 1, points seven , eight and nine can never be formed. Only points 0,1,2,3 can form. Bet banker.
Scenario 4
When the remaining cards are 10, J, Q, K, 2, points seven , eight and nine can never be formed. Only points 0,2,4,6 can form. Bet banker.
Scenario 5
When the remaining cards are 10, J, Q, K, 5, points seven , eight and nine can never be formed. Only points 0 and 5 can form. Bet banker.
Scenario 6
When the remaining cards are 10, J, Q, K, and two 6, points seven , eight and nine can never be formed. Only points 0, 2 and 6 can form. Bet banker.
Scenario 7
When the remaining cards are 10, J, Q, K, and many 6, points seven and nine can never be formed. Only points 0, 2, and eight can form. Bet banker three units.
Scenario 8
When the remaining cards are 10, J, Q, K, 6,7, points 1,2, can never be formed. Only points 0, 3, 4,5,6,7,8,9 can form. Bet banker two units.
Scenario 9
When the remaining cards are 10, J, Q, K, 4, 5. Here remember that banker four and five points give you the greatest advantage in asymmetrical play. In this scenario, only points 0, 4, 5, 8, 9 can form. You have eliminated points 1,2,3,6,7. This is a complex scenario. I usually bet only one unit. Banker has only a very slight borderline advantage. Try to figure out yourself. However, it is a good spot for tie bets.
Note: All the nine scenarios are ideal for tie play.
ANALYSIS
There are altogether six numbers for you to eliminate. Here is how I bet. If I am able to eliminate five numbers I bet five units, if four, four units, if three, three units, if two, two units, if one, one unit.
In scenarios 1 to 6, you have eliminated seven, eight and nine, so you always bet three units.
Don’t learn by rote. Learn the method and figure out yourself the bordeline scenarios where you also have some advantage. Keep practising until it becomes second nature to you.
Normally when you have banker advantage is also the time when you have tie advantage , so bet accordingly.
KEY POINTS
1. Counting cards to win baccarat is very effective if you bet both banker and tie bets accordingly.
2. Do not bet player even if you are card counting to win baccarat because player odds at best drop to zero, never positive.
Baccarat is the only casino game with skewed binomial distribution.
Here, the assumption is that you are familiar with the third card rule in baccarat and that you are playing the traditional 5% baccarat. You have already seen how you can count cards and win in tie bet.
If you want to count cards and win in baccarat, firstly you have to understand symmetrical play and aymmetrical play in baccarat. Read this post carefully.
The keypoint is you are going to win the majority of your banker bets when banker stand or draw on four and five points. You also have some advantage albeit less when banker stand or draw on three and six points.
Because you can play very few tie bets and asymmetrical banker bets, you can combine both and win baccarat as a standee. I will address the individual cards scenarios in a separate post.
2. How Can I Win Baccarat Long Term?
The easiest way to win baccarat long term is to bet bankers only. See this post.
Baccarat is the only casino game with skewed binomial distribution.
Banker has a natural bias, very much like bias wheel in roulette where historically professionals have seized the opportunity to make millions betting on the bias
quadrant. Casinos have taken the winning player to court on the grounds that betting on non-random or unequal outcome voids all play. However, the court held that players have the right in law to bet this way. It is the responsilibity of the casinos to mend the wheel.
Banker wins 103 times for every 100 times that player win. But the casino takes away 5% such that banker effectively wins 98 times for every 100 times player win. (103 minus 5 equal 98). To compensate for that you have to create a mini d’alenberg system. This is described in the bet banker only post. Each pair will give you 1 unit win. This can easily cover the 5% commission on banker.
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3. How Can I Win Baccarat 100%?
You can win 100% if you learn how to play with any of these methods.
(a) Bet banker only mini system
(b) Bet tie towards the end of the shoe
(c) Methods that create system bias. I will address this in a separate post.
4. I want to know more about belief system in gambling.
To win in gambling is never easy. The three major belief systems that fuel addictive gambling are systems, lady luck and money management.
Almost all systems are big losers as the saying, the house love system players. However, as you have seen, it is possible to create system bias to win 100% of your series. Some historical examples are HP Johnson Guaranteed System and Arthur Irwin Bruce Midas Touch System.
Lady luck is subjective, open to varied interpretation. However, if you look at it objectively, it is actually variance or standard deviation in statistical terms.
Money management is an elusive subject. The house very often reward you for your table front money because the casino knows you are going to lose out of proportion to your modest wins. If you play to win, you will find that money management has a dual purpose, either to cover you through variance and to protect you by passing the problem area to the time parameter or even both depending on the method you play. In other words, money management must cover you until you reach your target win percentage. In my opinion, a 40% target percentage is optimal for balanced play. Forty percent is a magic number. More on this in my subsequent post.
5. Can you tell me something on chasing lady luck in gambling.
Chasing lady luck in gambling is a kind of gambling tilt. The predispoing factors are your belief system in lady luck as well as the psychological flicks in win-lose situations. The precipitating factors or triggers are misses and near misses especially in slot machines and jackpots.
How to devise a short term strategy to win in baccarat
WARNING: IF YOU ARE NEW IN GAMBLING, DO NOT READ THE POSTS AND HEAD STRAIGHT INTO THE CASINO.
I go scuba diving. You need training and certification before you can go diving. Otherwise you will be drowned. Similarly, you need to go through at least 50% of the free gambling courses before you can start. At the same time you must practice at home. The first step is to learn how to protect yourself.
This short term strategy also apply to any even-odd game with low odds.
Baccarat is unbeatable long term under normal playing environment. However, this does not mean we can’t do something about it.
Lady luck, progressive systems and money management action are dangerous belief systems for long term play. The house loves them. Casino loves them.
The casino will do whatever they can to convert short term players into long term players.
These flawed belief systems can turn ordinary, unsuspecting, innocent players into problematic compulsive gamblers through no fault of theirs. The dark side of life!
However, if you devise a short term strategy then suddenly, lady luck, progressive systems and money management action become your friends.
Here is how you do it:
First you need to understand and accept that:
1. That short term is not the same as long term.
The scenario below illustrate what is short term and how new player can easily convert short term play into long term play.
(i) If you start off by losing an easily affordable stake (your own rule), you then quit. That is short term play. Good work.
(If you are new, you must get a buddy, tell your buddy what is ‘your own rule’ preferably in writing. This practice is good not only in gambling but also in many other aspects in life).
If you take out some more money and continue playing, then that is long term, even though it is just a couple of hours. And remember. Casino will do whatever they can to convert short term players into long term players. You have succumb to casino’s counter-measures.
(ii) If you start off by winning, you can continue to play until you lose back 10%, 20%, 50%, 70%, 90% or atmost 100% of your winnings. This is short term play. Again another good work.
If after losing back 100% of your winnings you take out some more money and play, then you have converted short term play into long term play.
Be clear about that.
LESSON: NEVER CONVERT SHORT TERM PLAY INTO LONG TERM PLAY
Short term play can mean 30 minutes or a few years. It is defined by ‘process’ not time.
All successful professional gamblers understand this including many of our forefathers.
Subscribe to my free gambling courses and slowly you will learn how our forefathers play professionally.
In any of your overseas trip, look for games with positive expected value. In case you can’t find them, you execute your short term strategy in any even-odds game.
Now, you refer back to my post, “how I won 160,000 over ten months”.
You will notice that I device a strategy such that the process is much prolonged. I described it as postponing my nemesis.
Figure it out yourself the way I play professionally.
I have also worked out how the odds can catch up with me.
To illustrate this point further, let us assume I continue playing and get this result subsequently:
won average 1000 sessions at $1000 per session= 1,000,000
loss average 116 sessions at $10,000 per session=1,160,000
Net loss=$160,000
You see. I would have lost back all my winnings.
This is about 2 million bets. So, I figure it out that it will take about 40 months for them to win back. It may faster, or it may be slower depending on the variance.
However, the casino will do whatever they can to make you lose faster. They will upgrade your membership card to force you to play at stakes ten times higher. Politely decline them. If you succumb to their counter-measures then 40 months become 4 months.
THIS IS SOMETHING THAT SUCCESSFUL PROFESSIONAL GAMBLERS UNDERSTAND BUT THEIR FELLOW GAMBLERS DO NOT.
Short term strategy and smart chasing of losses do not work long term. You must start by winning. When you lose back your winnings you have to quit. This process can take many years.
But, the “tie bet” I presented in one of my post work long term because the expected value is positive. Take a look at my post or my blog again. That is the reason why casino ban you if you are found winning with this “bet tie” method.
It is not easy to find games with positive expected value except in professional poker.
In blackjack, counting cards can tell when you have the positive expected value. But, the casino take counter-measures. They either
(i) use reshuffling machne or
(i) reshuffle after every 25% of the shoe or
(iii) bar you from play if you are found winning with this method.
Once you learn and master professional poker, you will understand with ease why all games with negative expected value are unbeatable long term, including baccarat and roulette. You will also understand why 10% of long term poker players are winners. The percentage is higher than business players. (Only 4% of businesses survive after 5 years).
To start learning I recommend that you read the nine basic books on poker that all professional poker players must read. Email me if you want to know more about it.
Email me at soondr@gmail.com
After reading all these books (I read about fifteen of them ), I venture successfully into professional poker and begin to see the importance of positive expectation.
Lady luck, system and money management action are simply garbage except for short term play. As professional poker players, we see them as fish. The saying is, “if after 15 minutes of play, you do not know who is the fish, then you are the fish.”
Casino around my region do not have poker rooms including rwsentosa and Marina Sands in Singapore. I believe the reason is they do not want to educate the public that they must avoid all games with negative expected value.
Soon I find a way back to my old games. The trigger is mainly ‘how am I going to roll over the thousands of my old reward points about to expire”. And I was able to beat the casino in the game in short term using what I call smart chasing of losses. Just make sure that short term does not end up as long term.
Small casino bar players if they win with smart chasing of losses. Because you can win for several years with smart chasing of losses. However, you are a welcomed player in big casino because the casino know you will lose long term. The odds will finally catch up with you.
I believe you can do it if you know how to play professional poker. In addition, you need to have sufficient experience in playing baccarat. If you do not know professional poker and do not have sufficient experience in baccaarat I will never believe you can do it.
My skills in gambling took a sudden jump to the next level several years ago after I learned professional poker. When I return to play baccarat, roulette and blackjack, suddenly I find myself a better player, able to handle every aspect of all these games with relative ease.
But I have found the holy grail in professional poker. You need a positive expected value to win long term. Look at the WSOP Poker champions. Search the internet to see for yourself. How many millions each one of them make per year.
If you insist to make money in gambling your first choice is to go for professional poker….play professional poker. (Not the sucker simplified variant you see in most casinos). Beware the learning curve is very steep… but worth the effort. After playing professional poker for a period of time you will also suddenly realize that you have become a much better businessman. In business, we have heard of the words, “just like poker” so often. And this is the reason.
One day the rwgenting host a lunch and stock-market seminar as a reward to a VIP patron. I was invited. A top management staff told me that only 20 players out of the millions of visitors won and we know who they are. They appear very angry when they said that. My reply was: It is your game. They can only win short term. They said. We know. They are very smart. We are not able to get them. I believe these 20 people had mastered the game of smart chasing of losses.
If opportunities arise I can demonstrate to any interested and responsible parties in actual casino play as long as the security issue is adequately addressed.
This cannot be done in rwgenting anymore because they change their rules to $50 spread no more $5 spread. They did it in 24 hours notice.
You can still find $5 spread in roulette, Tai-sai and Mini-dice but the game is extremely slow.
Nevertheless, the concept and the process are the same.
My fellow gamblers say this is holy grail. They are wrong. Rare events happen in gambling. The reverse of jackpot. This is the reason I cut off at 10k loss after several attempts to recover fail.
This will happen once in a few months of play. But can happen anytime or may not happen in a year.
To summarize:
Play only games with positive expected value. It is easiest to win and you win long term.
Professional poker is your first choice.
Playing tie bet in baccarat is your second choice.
And my tourist method playing baccarat is your third choice.
If you cannot find games with positive expected value then you devise short term strategy and turn so-called evils — lady luck, progressive systems and money management action into your friend.
Just make sure that short term does not end up as long term. Remember my definition. It is defined by process not time.
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Join my free gambling courses if you want to know how I win baccarat as a tourist.
This is the method I play whenever I travel overseas as tourist. You can also use this method to play professionally.
My average win is 5.5 units per 60 hands.
Here is the system:
Play only traditional baccarat with 5% tax on banker.
The 4% tax offered in Horseshoe Las Vegas is even better.
Your money management rules:-
Bankroll: 9 units per series.
When you are still ahead by 9 units or more, you can quit anytime after your first lost, second loss or third loss.
Quit anytime you lose your 9 units. This is strict limit on losses.
Your betting rules
Rule 1: Bet only banker
Case 1
Entry trigger: Whenever you see P BB, bet banker 2 units. Then bet every banker. Do not skip bets, until you lose to player three in a row. You quit. Then start a new series. Wait for PBB again.
If lost, bet banker 3 units. If lost again bet banker 4 units. You have lost the whole series of 9 units.
This is player three in a row. You will lose to player three in a row. This is your nemesis.
You quit
Case 2
Same entry trigger PBB
Bet banker 2 units. You won. Bet banker 3 units. Banker is now 3 in a row BBB.
Rule 2: Whenver you see banker three in a row BBB, bet banker 3 units, not 2 units. This is to take advantage of long banker streak.
Do not get the next part wrong. …read slowly…….After your have lost at banker 3 units as in BBBBBP, your next bet is still banker three units. If won reduce to bet banker 2 units. If lost at three units again, increase banker bet to 4 units. If lost again execute your strict limits on losses rule. You quit.
This means you will lose to player three in a row either 2,3,4 or 3,3,4. Be clear about it
Case 3
Rule 3: If lost 2 unit, bet 3 unit. If won 3 unit reduce to 2 unit. D’Alenberg sytem. In other words, up one unit on losing, down one level on winning.
Illustration
This is taken from my log in one of my overseas trip. Unit in brackets is lost bet
2, 2, 3, 3, 3, (3), (3), (4).. quit won 3 units
(2), 3, (2), 3, (2), 3, won 3 units.
2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, (3) quit won 22 units
(2), (3), 4, 3, (2), (3), 4, (3), 4, (3), 4, (3), 4, 3, (2), (3), 4, 3, (2)…quit won 7 units (lost 10 bets, won 9 bets)
If you are not getting patterns like above, it means you have played wrongly.
You should average 5.5 units win per shoe.
Warning: This method does not work in B6 baccarat.
Analysis
This bet banker only strategy I presented is effective because banker mathematicaly wins more times. Banker wins 103 times for every 100 times that player wins.
Because each pair you make 50% (example, lose 2 units, won 3 units) while you only pay 5% commission. This gives you the theoretical edge. You are exploiting the natural bias created by the third card rules. Baccarat is the only casino game with the skewed binary distribution. The 50% pairing edge can cover the 5% commission easily.
In B6 baccarat, banker only win 96 times to player 100 times. Won on B6 is calculated as won half bet. This is casino’s counter-measures against players who won this way.
If you switch to playing player alone then banker wins 103 times, player wins 100 times, no more 96 to 100. Figure it out yourself.
You win all alternating loss-win, meaning you win 75% of the bets.
I have never lost with this system when I play as tourist overseas. I won an average of 5.5 units over every 60 bets. However, you should be mentally prepared for variance. You can lose for one whole month. Conversely, you can also win six months in a row. Make sure you have the bankroll to cover you through. In addition, make sure you do not go on gambling tilt.
This method is ideal for short term recreational gambling as tourist.
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Professional players are always on the lookout for situations with positive expected value.
Surprisingly such situations can easily be found in baccarat especially towards the end of the shoe.
You will be banned if the casino staff know you are winning with it.
Here is the method:
You count every card preferably as standee. When the remaining cards are
Scenario 1
10, J, Q, K
you bet tie. A 100% sure bet. Scenario 2
When the remaining cards are 8, 9 10, J, Q, K,
only point 6,7 , 8, 9 and zero can form.
You have eliminated 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.
Bet tie. Scenario 3
When the remaining cards are 1,2,3, 10, J, Q, K
only point 0, 1,2,3,4,5,6 can form.
You have excluded 7,8,9.
Bet tie. Scenario 4
When the remaining cards are 1,2 , 10, J, Q, K
only point 0, 1,2,3,4 can form.
You have excluded 5,6, 7,8,9.
Bet tie. Scenario 5
When the remaining cards are 1, 10, J, Q, K
only point 0, 1,2, can form.
You have excluded 3,4,5,6, 7,8,9.
Bet tie. Scenario 6
When the remaining cards are 5, 10, J, Q, K
only point 0, 5, can form.
You have excluded 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7,8,9.
Bet tie. Scenario 7
When the remaining cards are 1, 5, 10, J, Q, K
only point 0,1,2, 5, 6 can form.
You have excluded 3, 4, 7, 8, 9.
Bet tie. Scenario 8
When the remaining cards are 1, 9, 10, J, Q, K
only point 0,1, 2, 9, can form.
You have excluded 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.
Bet tie.
There are many other scenarios where you have the odds. You just have to count cards. (Just like professional poker win on pot odds.)
Over here, you have the odds. Your expected value is positive.
This is the exact method professional poker players use to win.
I am sure some of my professional poker friends here will be happy to hear that positive expected value can actually be found in baccarat.
There are at least ten other methods used by professionals successfully in baccarat and other even-odds games. They are all covered in detail in my free gambling courses. Click here to join free gambling courses
Gamblinghelp can help you in
1. Recreational gambling
(i) Beginner recreational gambling
(ii) Advanced recreational gambling
2. Professional gambling
3. Quit gambling
We promote responsible gambling. Click the link below to subscribe to gamblinghelp free gambling courses.
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