How to Count Cards to Win Baccarat
The description in the above title is incomplete. It should be:
How to count cards to exploit third card asymmetrical play to win baccarat in banker bets and tie bets as a standee.
You already know that you can count cards to win in tie games. You can review the post again if you are not aware of the strategy:
how to count cards to win in tie bets
If you are counting cards to win in tie bets, why not take advantage of your card count to win in banker bets. This is how I do it.
You rely on symmetrical play and asymmetrical play in baccarat. Revise my post here.
How to track odds in baccarat and other common casino games
The key points are:
1. In symmetrical play, player has zero odds. The odds for banker is 2.5%.
2. In asymmetrical play, banker has 15.7% advantage over player. After 5% commission, banker advantage is 10.2%.
3. Symmetrical play occurs in 90% of the bets.
Therefore, you exploit asymmetrical play to win in banker bets.
Here is how I do it.
You will notice that symmetrical play occurs in points 0,1,2,7,8,9.
Asymmetrical play occurs when banker two cards show 3,4,5,6.
You will also notice that in this set of numbers 0,1,2,7,8,9, the first three numbers always end up as three cards symmetrical play whereas the last three numbers 7,8,9 always trigger two cards symmetrical play.
You will work out your strategy step by step.
Divide into three groups.
Group A covers points 7, 8, 9
Group B covers points 1 and 2
Group C covers points zero.
The differences in Groups A, B and C are only important in borderline scenarios.
In Group A, your goal is to eliminate points 7, 8, 9 in the outcome.
Scenario 1
When the remaining cards are 10, J, Q, K, 1, single 2 and a single 3, points seven , eight and nine can never be formed. You have eliminated the three essential points. Your advantage to bet banker is 10.2%.
Scenario 2
When the remaining cards are 10, J, Q, K, 1, 2, points seven , eight and nine can never be formed. Bet banker.
Scenario 3
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When the remaining cards are 10, J, Q, K, 1, points seven , eight and nine can never be formed. Only points 0,1,2,3 can form. Bet banker.
Scenario 4
When the remaining cards are 10, J, Q, K, 2, points seven , eight and nine can never be formed. Only points 0,2,4,6 can form. Bet banker.
Scenario 5
When the remaining cards are 10, J, Q, K, 5, points seven , eight and nine can never be formed. Only points 0 and 5 can form. Bet banker.
Scenario 6
When the remaining cards are 10, J, Q, K, and two 6, points seven , eight and nine can never be formed. Only points 0, 2 and 6 can form. Bet banker.
Scenario 7
When the remaining cards are 10, J, Q, K, and many 6, points seven and nine can never be formed. Only points 0, 2, and eight can form. Bet banker three units.
Scenario 8
When the remaining cards are 10, J, Q, K, 6,7, points 1,2, can never be formed. Only points 0, 3, 4,5,6,7,8,9 can form. Bet banker two units.
Scenario 9
When the remaining cards are 10, J, Q, K, 4, 5. Here remember that banker four and five points give you the greatest advantage in asymmetrical play. In this scenario, only points 0, 4, 5, 8, 9 can form. You have eliminated points 1,2,3,6,7. This is a complex scenario. I usually bet only one unit. Banker has only a very slight borderline advantage. Try to figure out yourself. However, it is a good spot for tie bets.
Note: All the nine scenarios are ideal for tie play.
ANALYSIS
There are altogether six numbers for you to eliminate. Here is how I bet. If I am able to eliminate five numbers I bet five units, if four, four units, if three, three units, if two, two units, if one, one unit.
In scenarios 1 to 6, you have eliminated seven, eight and nine, so you always bet three units.
Don’t learn by rote. Learn the method and figure out yourself the bordeline scenarios where you also have some advantage. Keep practising until it becomes second nature to you.
Normally when you have banker advantage is also the time when you have tie advantage , so bet accordingly.
KEY POINTS
1. Counting cards to win baccarat is very effective if you bet both banker and tie bets accordingly.
2. Do not bet player even if you are card counting to win baccarat because player odds at best drop to zero, never positive.
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