Baccarat is the only casino game with skewed binomial distribution.
Here, the assumption is that you are familiar with the third card rule in baccarat and that you are playing the traditional 5% baccarat. You have already seen how you can count cards and win in tie bet.
If you want to count cards and win in baccarat, firstly you have to understand symmetrical play and aymmetrical play in baccarat. Read this post carefully.
The keypoint is you are going to win the majority of your banker bets when banker stand or draw on four and five points. You also have some advantage albeit less when banker stand or draw on three and six points.
Because you can play very few tie bets and asymmetrical banker bets, you can combine both and win baccarat as a standee. I will address the individual cards scenarios in a separate post.
2. How Can I Win Baccarat Long Term?
The easiest way to win baccarat long term is to bet bankers only. See this post.
Baccarat is the only casino game with skewed binomial distribution.
Banker has a natural bias, very much like bias wheel in roulette where historically professionals have seized the opportunity to make millions betting on the bias
quadrant. Casinos have taken the winning player to court on the grounds that betting on non-random or unequal outcome voids all play. However, the court held that players have the right in law to bet this way. It is the responsilibity of the casinos to mend the wheel.
Banker wins 103 times for every 100 times that player win. But the casino takes away 5% such that banker effectively wins 98 times for every 100 times player win. (103 minus 5 equal 98). To compensate for that you have to create a mini d’alenberg system. This is described in the bet banker only post. Each pair will give you 1 unit win. This can easily cover the 5% commission on banker.
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3. How Can I Win Baccarat 100%?
You can win 100% if you learn how to play with any of these methods.
(a) Bet banker only mini system
(b) Bet tie towards the end of the shoe
(c) Methods that create system bias. I will address this in a separate post.
4. I want to know more about belief system in gambling.
To win in gambling is never easy. The three major belief systems that fuel addictive gambling are systems, lady luck and money management.
Almost all systems are big losers as the saying, the house love system players. However, as you have seen, it is possible to create system bias to win 100% of your series. Some historical examples are HP Johnson Guaranteed System and Arthur Irwin Bruce Midas Touch System.
Lady luck is subjective, open to varied interpretation. However, if you look at it objectively, it is actually variance or standard deviation in statistical terms.
Money management is an elusive subject. The house very often reward you for your table front money because the casino knows you are going to lose out of proportion to your modest wins. If you play to win, you will find that money management has a dual purpose, either to cover you through variance and to protect you by passing the problem area to the time parameter or even both depending on the method you play. In other words, money management must cover you until you reach your target win percentage. In my opinion, a 40% target percentage is optimal for balanced play. Forty percent is a magic number. More on this in my subsequent post.
5. Can you tell me something on chasing lady luck in gambling.
Chasing lady luck in gambling is a kind of gambling tilt. The predispoing factors are your belief system in lady luck as well as the psychological flicks in win-lose situations. The precipitating factors or triggers are misses and near misses especially in slot machines and jackpots.
When you are gambling in a casino, you are hypnotized by the casino environment. You are like someone in the middle of the jungle or in the middle of the ocean. Just like you are surrounded by trees in the jungle or water in the ocean, in the casino you are surrounded by free food, free lodging, and dollars as baits. So you use lady luck, system and money management action to get the casino dollars.
What is the outcome. It is the casino that get your dollars. You are scammed into playing their game of random decisions.
Why don’t gamblers consider their gambling activity as part of the big picture. Let’s use this analogy. Your gambling activities are the trees, your big picture is the forest. You must train yourself to see not only the wood and the trees but also the forest. You must be aware of the big picture that you are in the middle of the forest.
The forest is the casino scene. If you go for adventure in the middle of the forest, you will be lost without the proper tools. These tools are maps, compass and local guides.
You need these tools to handle the casino scene. Without these tools you will be lost in the jungle. My free gambling courses will help you to arm yourself with these tools.
The big picture includes both private victory and public victory. Your private victory is your health and education and your public victory is money, relationship and power.
You should do well if you approach gambling with this mindset. You can never go wrong.
If you lose, lose within tightly controlled limits. That is your expenses. Expense is recreation. You can also consider expenses as a kind of victory just like charity.
If you are able to win long term, you get income, that is money victory.
Knowledge is power. Therefore you must educate yourself with a thorough understanding of gambling theory. Passing mark is not enough to beat the casino. You need to be an expert.
YOU NEED A CORRECT MINDSET TO HANDLE THE CASINO SCENE.
In this blog, I am persuading the readers to support its goal of educating the public and promoting responsible gambling.
I started this blog because I am very much inspired by the sincerity of the Singapore Government in promoting responsible ganbling.
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How to devise a short term strategy to win in baccarat
WARNING: IF YOU ARE NEW IN GAMBLING, DO NOT READ THE POSTS AND HEAD STRAIGHT INTO THE CASINO.
I go scuba diving. You need training and certification before you can go diving. Otherwise you will be drowned. Similarly, you need to go through at least 50% of the free gambling courses before you can start. At the same time you must practice at home. The first step is to learn how to protect yourself.
This short term strategy also apply to any even-odd game with low odds.
Baccarat is unbeatable long term under normal playing environment. However, this does not mean we can’t do something about it.
Lady luck, progressive systems and money management action are dangerous belief systems for long term play. The house loves them. Casino loves them.
The casino will do whatever they can to convert short term players into long term players.
These flawed belief systems can turn ordinary, unsuspecting, innocent players into problematic compulsive gamblers through no fault of theirs. The dark side of life!
However, if you devise a short term strategy then suddenly, lady luck, progressive systems and money management action become your friends.
Here is how you do it:
First you need to understand and accept that:
1. That short term is not the same as long term.
The scenario below illustrate what is short term and how new player can easily convert short term play into long term play.
(i) If you start off by losing an easily affordable stake (your own rule), you then quit. That is short term play. Good work.
(If you are new, you must get a buddy, tell your buddy what is ‘your own rule’ preferably in writing. This practice is good not only in gambling but also in many other aspects in life).
If you take out some more money and continue playing, then that is long term, even though it is just a couple of hours. And remember. Casino will do whatever they can to convert short term players into long term players. You have succumb to casino’s counter-measures.
(ii) If you start off by winning, you can continue to play until you lose back 10%, 20%, 50%, 70%, 90% or atmost 100% of your winnings. This is short term play. Again another good work.
If after losing back 100% of your winnings you take out some more money and play, then you have converted short term play into long term play.
Be clear about that.
LESSON: NEVER CONVERT SHORT TERM PLAY INTO LONG TERM PLAY
Short term play can mean 30 minutes or a few years. It is defined by ‘process’ not time.
All successful professional gamblers understand this including many of our forefathers.
Subscribe to my free gambling courses and slowly you will learn how our forefathers play professionally.
In any of your overseas trip, look for games with positive expected value. In case you can’t find them, you execute your short term strategy in any even-odds game.
Now, you refer back to my post, “how I won 160,000 over ten months”.
You will notice that I device a strategy such that the process is much prolonged. I described it as postponing my nemesis.
Figure it out yourself the way I play professionally.
I have also worked out how the odds can catch up with me.
To illustrate this point further, let us assume I continue playing and get this result subsequently:
won average 1000 sessions at $1000 per session= 1,000,000
loss average 116 sessions at $10,000 per session=1,160,000
Net loss=$160,000
You see. I would have lost back all my winnings.
This is about 2 million bets. So, I figure it out that it will take about 40 months for them to win back. It may faster, or it may be slower depending on the variance.
However, the casino will do whatever they can to make you lose faster. They will upgrade your membership card to force you to play at stakes ten times higher. Politely decline them. If you succumb to their counter-measures then 40 months become 4 months.
THIS IS SOMETHING THAT SUCCESSFUL PROFESSIONAL GAMBLERS UNDERSTAND BUT THEIR FELLOW GAMBLERS DO NOT.
Short term strategy and smart chasing of losses do not work long term. You must start by winning. When you lose back your winnings you have to quit. This process can take many years.
But, the “tie bet” I presented in one of my post work long term because the expected value is positive. Take a look at my post or my blog again. That is the reason why casino ban you if you are found winning with this “bet tie” method.
It is not easy to find games with positive expected value except in professional poker.
In blackjack, counting cards can tell when you have the positive expected value. But, the casino take counter-measures. They either
(i) use reshuffling machne or
(i) reshuffle after every 25% of the shoe or
(iii) bar you from play if you are found winning with this method.
Once you learn and master professional poker, you will understand with ease why all games with negative expected value are unbeatable long term, including baccarat and roulette. You will also understand why 10% of long term poker players are winners. The percentage is higher than business players. (Only 4% of businesses survive after 5 years).
To start learning I recommend that you read the nine basic books on poker that all professional poker players must read. Email me if you want to know more about it.
Email me at soondr@gmail.com
After reading all these books (I read about fifteen of them ), I venture successfully into professional poker and begin to see the importance of positive expectation.
Lady luck, system and money management action are simply garbage except for short term play. As professional poker players, we see them as fish. The saying is, “if after 15 minutes of play, you do not know who is the fish, then you are the fish.”
Casino around my region do not have poker rooms including rwsentosa and Marina Sands in Singapore. I believe the reason is they do not want to educate the public that they must avoid all games with negative expected value.
Soon I find a way back to my old games. The trigger is mainly ‘how am I going to roll over the thousands of my old reward points about to expire”. And I was able to beat the casino in the game in short term using what I call smart chasing of losses. Just make sure that short term does not end up as long term.
Small casino bar players if they win with smart chasing of losses. Because you can win for several years with smart chasing of losses. However, you are a welcomed player in big casino because the casino know you will lose long term. The odds will finally catch up with you.
I believe you can do it if you know how to play professional poker. In addition, you need to have sufficient experience in playing baccarat. If you do not know professional poker and do not have sufficient experience in baccaarat I will never believe you can do it.
My skills in gambling took a sudden jump to the next level several years ago after I learned professional poker. When I return to play baccarat, roulette and blackjack, suddenly I find myself a better player, able to handle every aspect of all these games with relative ease.
But I have found the holy grail in professional poker. You need a positive expected value to win long term. Look at the WSOP Poker champions. Search the internet to see for yourself. How many millions each one of them make per year.
If you insist to make money in gambling your first choice is to go for professional poker….play professional poker. (Not the sucker simplified variant you see in most casinos). Beware the learning curve is very steep… but worth the effort. After playing professional poker for a period of time you will also suddenly realize that you have become a much better businessman. In business, we have heard of the words, “just like poker” so often. And this is the reason.
One day the rwgenting host a lunch and stock-market seminar as a reward to a VIP patron. I was invited. A top management staff told me that only 20 players out of the millions of visitors won and we know who they are. They appear very angry when they said that. My reply was: It is your game. They can only win short term. They said. We know. They are very smart. We are not able to get them. I believe these 20 people had mastered the game of smart chasing of losses.
If opportunities arise I can demonstrate to any interested and responsible parties in actual casino play as long as the security issue is adequately addressed.
This cannot be done in rwgenting anymore because they change their rules to $50 spread no more $5 spread. They did it in 24 hours notice.
You can still find $5 spread in roulette, Tai-sai and Mini-dice but the game is extremely slow.
Nevertheless, the concept and the process are the same.
My fellow gamblers say this is holy grail. They are wrong. Rare events happen in gambling. The reverse of jackpot. This is the reason I cut off at 10k loss after several attempts to recover fail.
This will happen once in a few months of play. But can happen anytime or may not happen in a year.
To summarize:
Play only games with positive expected value. It is easiest to win and you win long term.
Professional poker is your first choice.
Playing tie bet in baccarat is your second choice.
And my tourist method playing baccarat is your third choice.
If you cannot find games with positive expected value then you devise short term strategy and turn so-called evils — lady luck, progressive systems and money management action into your friend.
Just make sure that short term does not end up as long term. Remember my definition. It is defined by process not time.
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