Category Archives: Free Gambling Courses

Gambling Theory – Variance and Mathematical Expectation

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Gambling Theory – Variance and Mathematical Expectation

and how to use it to make money in tie bets in baccarat (strongly recommended)

Vegas World casino owner Bob Stupak said, “Having one-thousandth of one percent the worst of it, if he plays long enough, that one-thousandth of one percent will bust the richest man in the world.”

As you know, Bob Stupak own the casino Stratosphere.

I played once in Stratosphere casino. I played 0.2% odds blackjack. For the first four days, I lost US$500 despite card counting. This was due to variance. I received plenty of stiff cards. When you get stiff cards in blackjack, the odds against you averages 15%.

There was nothing much I could do except to take loss. Then, I went to attend a Medical Seminar in Palm Spring followed by a Medical Evaluation Examination.

Subsequently, I returned to Stratosphere casino and continued to play blackjack the same way. Surprisingly, variance and positive expectations came to my rescue. By the end of third day, I won US$700 for a net win of US$200.

Gambling Theory involve ideas that frequently involve concepts that are deep, abstract and subtle.

This post is about the general theories and concepts of gambling, which apply to nearly all casino games – baccarat, roulette, blackjack, Tai-Sai, and Poker.

Beginning recreational gamblers always make flawed assumptions.
They belief that lady luck, systems and money management give them the edge to beat the casino.

By explaining the logic of gambling, this post will, I hope, show the gambler what kinds of stuffs to focus on in order to become a better gambler.

To illustrate the concepts presented, I prefer to use these five games – baccarat, roulette, blackjack, Mini-dice, and Poker.

Gambling theory is not easy, but a careful reading of it should reap rich rewards.

Mathematical expectation is the amount a bet will average winning or losing. It is an extremely important concept for the gambler because it shows him how to evaluate most gambling problems. Using mathematical expectation is also the best way to analyze most situations where you can find positive expected values.

Let’s say you are betting with a friend $1, even money, on the flip of a coin. Each time it comes up heads, you win; each time it comes up tails, you lose. The odds of its coming up heads are 1-to-1, and you’re betting $l-to-$l. Therefore, your mathematical expectation is precisely zero since you cannot expect, mathematically, to be either ahead or behind after two flips or after 200 flips.

Your hourly rate is also zero. Hourly rate is the amount of money you expect to win per hour. You might be able to flip a coin 500 times an hour, but since you are getting neither good nor bad odds, you will neither earn nor lose money. From a serious gambler’s point of view, this betting proposition is not a bad one. It’s just a waste of time.

But let’s say some ‘fish’ is willing to bet $2 to your $1 on the flip of the coin. Suddenly you have a positive expectation of 50 cents per bet. Why 50 cents? On the average you will win one bet for every bet you lose. You wager your first dollar and lose $1; you wager your second and win $2. You have wagered $1 twice, and you are $1 ahead. Each of these $1 bets has earned 50 cents.

If you can manage 500 flips of the coin per hour, your hourly rate is now $250, because on average you will lose one dollar 250 times and win two dollars 250 times $500 minus $250 equals a $250 net win. Notice again that your mathematical expectation, which is the amount you will average winning per bet, is 50 cents. You have won $250 after betting a dollar 500 limes: That works out to be 50 cents per bet.

Mathematical expectation has nothing to do with results. The ‘fish’ might win the first ten coin flips in a row, but betting 2-to-l odds on an even-money proposition, you still earn 50 cents per $1 bet. It makes no difference whether you win or lose a specific bet or series of bets as long as you have a bankroll to cover your losses easily.

If you continue to make these bets, you will win, and in the long run your win will approach specifically the sum of your expectations.

Anytime you make a bet with the best of it, where the odds are in your favour, you have earned something on that bet, whether you actually win or lose the bet. In the same way, when you make a bet with the worst of it, where the odds are not in your favour, you have lost something, whether you actually win or lose the bet.

You have the best of it when you have a positive expectation, and you have a positive expectation when the odds are in your favour. You have the worst of it when you have a negative expectation, and you have a negative expectation when the odds are against you. Serious gamblers bet only when they have the best of it; when they have the worst of it, they do not bet.

What does it mean to have the odds in your favour? It means winning more on a result than the true odds warrant. The true odds of a coin’s coming up heads are 1-to-l, but you’re getting 2-to-l for your money. The odds in this instance are in your favour. You have the best of it with a positive expectation of 50 cents per bet.

Mathematical expectation is at the heart of every gambling situation, When a bookie requires football bettors to lay $11 to win $10, he has a positive expectation of 50 cents per $10 bet. When a casino pays even money on the PLAYER bet at the baccarat table, it has a positive expectation of about $1.36 per $100 bet since the game is structured so that the PLAYER bettor will lose 103 decisions for every 100 decisions he win.

Indeed it is this seemingly minuscule positive expectation that provides casinos around the world with all their enormous profits. This is something that casino knows but don’t want gamblers to know.

In most gambling situations like casino baccarat (except ties), craps and roulette, the odds on any given bet are constant. In others like blackjack and poker, they change, and mathematical expectation can show you how to evaluate a particular situation.

In blackjack, for instance, to determine the right play, mathematicians have calculated your expectation playing a hand one way and your expectation playing it another way.

Whichever play gives you a higher positive expectation or a lower negative expectation is the right one For example, when you have a 16 against the dealer’s 10, you’re a favourite to lose.

However, when that 16 is 8,8, your best play is to surrender and lose half the bets. If surrender is not allowed, your second best is to split the 8s, doubling your bet. By splitting the 8s against the dealer’s 10, you still lose but lose less. Splitting do not give you the edge. Splitting helps you to lose less. You have a lower negative expectation than if you simply hit every time you had an 8,8 against a 10.

In the long run a gambler’s overall win or loss is the sum of his mathematical expectations in individual situations. The more bets you make with a positive expectation, the bigger winner you stand to be. The more bets you make with a negative expectation, the bigger loser you stand to be. Therefore, you should almost always try to make the bet that will maximize your positive expectation or minimize your negative expectation.

If you choose to play baccarat, I recommend playing ties towards the end of the shoes despite the 14% odds in ties. In blackjack, the odds can fluctuate two ways, either against you or in favour of you. In baccarat, the odds always fluctuate in the direction in favour of you.

I repeat:

IN BACCARAT TIE BETS, THE ODDS ALWAYS FLUCTUATE IN FAVOUR OF YOU.

When the odds remain the same or out by one number, do not bet. You can bet when at least two numbers are eliminated.

You need not be exact. Approximation is sufficient. Practise playing this way for some time and you will fall in love with another game where you can find plenty of similar situations. That game is professional poker. Evaluation of mathematical expectation is the bread and butter of professional poker.

With this post, I hope, you will learn how to spot situations with positive expected values in order to make money. In case you are barred for winning with tie bets, you can always switch over to professional poker.

If you have any questions email me at

soondr@gmail.com

Subscribe to

Free Gambling Courses

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Review of Beat The Casino by Frank Barstow

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Review of Beat The Casino by Frank Barstow

Frank Barstow was a Wall Street Analyst. Upon retirement he did substantial research on gambling systems.
All the gambling systems are documented in the book “Beat The Casino”. The book is now out of print.

He concluded by saying that he could have named these systems as “Royal Road to Riches, but he chose not to”. Then, in the epiloque, he criticised the politicians for legalising the casinos.

He explored up as you win systems, up as you lose systems, bet selection and partnership play.

UP AS YOU WIN

If you would like to go for small but consistent wins, parlay is a good system to use.

Barstow recommends this system

2 3 4 5 7 10.

Total= 31 units.

He said you should win 42 units for every 31 units that you lose.

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You can also use the 31-parlay system

1 1 1 2 2 4 4 8 8

This system was documented in Las Vegas magazine. This old man make a living playing just one system.

The total loss per series is 31 units. That is why it is commonly known as 31-parlay system.

For playing parlay systems, use the reverse-repeat bet selection (more on this later).

And try to chose tables with lots of doublets and avoid tables with lots of singlets or chops or jumps (whatever you call it).
It does not matter if the cards do not go your way. You still have to do it for the benefit of the doubt.

Up-two-down-one system. Barstow says this is the best system. So, he lent his name to this system.
Now it is known as Barstow’s system.

1 2 3 5 7 9 11

Starting bet is one unit. You move up either one level or two units after a win. You reduce one level after a loss.

Generally, you conclude the series after three wins in a row, www, or two wins one loss then another two wins, wwlww.

It is not necessary to end the whole series after say www.
You can pull back to a lower level somewhere in the middle of the series if you still need to catch up.

Everytime you lose, you reduce one level.
If you lose three big bets consecutively exceeding 30 units, you drop the whole series. Execute your strict limit on losses.

Barstow said he played eighteen four hour sessions. His results are as follows:

Won 14 four hour sessions averaging 350 per session
Lost 4 four hour sessions averaging 150 per session.

See some examples here and figure it out yourself how I play this system.

Losses are in brackets

The examples are taken from my log playing 5% baccarat in one of my overseas trips.

Example 1:

1, 2, 3 won 6 units

Example 2 :

(1), (1), (1), (1), (1), (1), (1), (1), 1, 2, 4, 6, 3, 5 won 13 units

Example 3:

(1), (1), 1, (2), (1), (1), (1), 1, 2, (3), 2, (4), 3, (5), (4), 3, 5, 7, 9, (5), (4), 3, 5, 7. Won 16 units

Example 4:

(1), (1), (1), 1, (2), 1, (2), 1, 2, (4), 3, 5, (6), (5), (4), 3, (5), (4), 2, (4), 3, (5), 4, (6), 5,
(7), 6, 8, (10), 9, (11), 10, (5), 4, 6, 8, 4.

Won 2 units. Despite losing the two highest stake of 10 and 11.

You will notice how I deviate from the basic rules.

To win playing this system skilful handling is a MUST.

Note:

Play within your comfort zone. Professional gambling is a trade-off between risk and reward.
You must be comfortable with the risk in order to take the reward.
This method is still smart chasing of losses. The odds are still negative.

UP AS YOU LOSE

All up as you lose systems fall under the grind category.

Barstow says 80% of the professionals only escalate on winnings whereas 20% of the professionals also escalate on losing.
To the latter, they say it is the surest way to win.

Barstow describe the following systems.

1. Doubling up or Martingale.
Barstow recommend strict limit of losses at four levels.
Careful bet selection is a MUST to come out ahead.

2. Fibonacci.

1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55 89 144 233

Twelve levels.

Barstow says bet selection is crucial to come out ahead.

Just follow my blog. One day I will describe to you how I modify these fibonacci numbers for optimal play. I won between 50 cents to one dollar per bet. That is, if I had played one thousand bets, my winning is US$500.

3. Two-Five system.

Barstow recommend this system. He says it is a good especially when

played with partners or use imaginary partnerships.

You create a string with five numbers.

For example 2 3 5 7 10

Start with two units you keep pushing up until you get two wins or lose the series.

Anytime you get your two wins you conclude your series.

For example your winning series can be

2, 3
(2), (3), 5, 7
(2), 3, 5
(2), 3, (5), 7
2, (3), 5
2, (3), (5), 7
(2), (3), (5), 7, 10
(2), (3), 5, (7), 10

For bet selection, Barstow recommend a method he named it “PATTERN”.

In this bet selection you will lose to double chop or two-two, but win all long series of single chop (or jump or alternating). You will also win all long streaks of BANKER as well as PLAYER.
You only lose to BANKER second liner and PLAYER second liner.

The REVERSE of PATTERN is the bet selection known as REVERSE-REPEAT.
Barstow recommends player switch to REVERSE-REPEAT when they notice they are losing more times.
In REVERSE-REPEAT, player wins the first liner and second liner of both BANKER and PLAYER.

REVERSE-REPEAT bet selection is ideal when you are playing systems like parlay where two consecutive wins are crucial.
I repeat,

REVERSE-REPEAT BET SELECTION IS IDEAL WHEN YOU ARE PLAYING SYSTEMS LIKE PARLAY WHERE TWO CONSECUTIVE WINS ARE CRUCIAL.

Take some time to explore these systems.

If you have any questions, email me at

soondr@gmail.com

My goal is to help you all to become better gamblers.

When you become better gamblers you will know what to do.

“I agree with the position that to help gambling addicts, one must help them become better gamblers. Once they understand gambling theory, the smart ones will leave gambling for good or small trips, the not-so-smart ones become living examples of their recklessness/arrogance/stupidity.
My teaching is free and always will be.

Gamblinghelp can help you in

1. Recreational Gambling

(i) beginner recreational gambling

(ii) advanced recreational gambling

2. Professional gambling

3. Quit gambling.

I am looking forward to develop this website into a meaningful gambling community network. I appreciate the assistance and co-operation of each and everyone of you.

The goal is to educate the public and promote responsible gambling. It is designed to help you to protect yourself.

Tell your friend about this blog. Tell them to email me or subscribe to my free gambling courses so that I know who they are. Email me even to say, hello is welcome.

soondr@gmail.com

Subscribe to free gambling courses at

Free Gambling Courses

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How Gamblers Can Make US$10,000 a month

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How you can make US$10,000 a month by joining my rehabitation program for gamblers.

I was trained in geriatric medicine. I was also trained in oncology and palliative care medicine.
Geriatric medicine and oncology are not new but palliative medicine is a relatively new branch of medicine.

In recent years there has also been a greater emphasis on rehabilitation in geriatric medicine.
You can see this movie I posted to see the power of rehabilitation in modern medicine.

http://www.youtube.com/soondr/

then see the movie “Anatomy of an Illness”

I work in the Prison Department before. A significant percentage of the prisoners are drug addicts and infected with HIV.
My purpose was to see whether prisoners and drug addicts can be rehabilitated and return to society as a workforce.
My overall conclusion was no.

With a few exceptions, they are beyond help. NGOs, religious organizations and even some companies offer help but the results have always been disastrous. They are generally beyond rehabilitation. Palliative care works but they are not suffering from terminal cancer.
Their condition is irreversible. And it has become a big problem to many nations throughout the world.

However, I found a different answer in gamblers. It is possible to help gamblers. Almost all gamblers can be rehabilitated and they do a very good job when they returned to the workforce.

If you look at the flowchart, you will understand what I am trying to do.
The flowchart is my blueprint.

flowchart_blueprint

In my blueprint, affiliate system as a business or an entity with positive expected value fall under the category “beyond professional gambling” of my flowchart.

I create an affiliate system because I find that ex-gamblers can do a good job.
And the business system I am going to build is self sustaining.
There will be a constant supply of gamblers at least for the next fifty years.

You can preview the affiliate signup page at

Affiliate Sign Up Preview

and demo affiliate page at

Affiliates login page Preview

Username: demo@gamblinghelp.biz
Password: gamblinghelp

Do not sign up, just preview. It was my previous classicmovie project. You can test click your affiliate site (copy and paste the link),
click the movie thumbnails and see the the clicks recorded in your affiliate page.

You can also fill in your particulars as an expression of interest but you won’t be approved.
My affiliates are by invitation and recommendation only. Because of the changes in the internet landscape over the years, it is no longer effective to open affiliate registration to the public.

Generally top affiliates make more than US$10,000 per month after two years of hard work. After that you just have to maintain your affiliate work. Maintenance takes only one hour a day. You can live anywhere in the world as long as you have access to internet connection for one hour per day.

Some of you may be more ambitious. It is a personal choice. If you would like to do project work to take your business to the next level, you have to

prepare for steep learning curve,
prepare to overcome unforeseen obstacles
prepare to overcome massive frustrations
prepare to work long hours to compete at the next level
prepare to train up 1000 people to make more than US$10,000 per month.

Many companies have succeeded much better than that.

Examples are Microsoft, Google, Facebook, ebay, clickbank, followed by thousands of runner ups throughout the world.

This is my blueprint. The economic cake is more than enough to share as long as you remember that it is the numbers game. It is your responsility to see that it is a numbers game. I can only repeatedly remind you.

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Teaching the public by using videos and podcasts is very effective as proven by the statistics in youtube.com and other social networking sites.
I am going to create a series of videos to market my series of ebooks of course in a broad range of subjects of my interests and expertise, including health, medicine, affiliate marketing, legal issues in the internet and so on. Youtube.com and other social networking websites will provide a constant supply of traffic.

Take a look again at my two-click classicmovies. The attractive feature is that you get to see the movie in two clicks.

http://www.classicmovie.biz/

I will create another one using the same template, but this time loaded with educational and marketing movies to educate the public as well as marketing my unique ebooks.

Then just repeat the numbers game. The third set of 100 movies, fourth set and so on.

It is about building a successful business sytem just like the way McDonald do.

Let me tell you a story:

Someone invited a group of venture capitalists to taste his home made buerger. He claimed that the taste is anytime superior to McDonald’s buerger. The venture capitalists tasted and unanimously agreed that the taste is much better.

After some discussion, the venture capitalist asked a simple question,..can you build a better business system than McDonald! I repeat:

CAN YOU BUILD A BETTER BUSINESS SYSTEM THAN McDONALD?

The venture capitalists did not finance the project.

If you have interest in what I say, you are invited to get started by signing up my free gambling courses.

Click here to sign up:

Free Gambling Courses

It is free and will always be.

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How to win in baccarat as a tourist

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How to win baccarat as a tourist

Join my free gambling courses if you want to know how I win baccarat as a tourist.

This is the method I play whenever I travel overseas as tourist. You can also use this method to play professionally.

My average win is 5.5 units per 60 hands.

Here is the system:
Play only traditional baccarat with 5% tax on banker.
The 4% tax offered in Horseshoe Las Vegas is even better.

Your money management rules:-

Bankroll: 9 units per series.
When you are still ahead by 9 units or more, you can quit anytime after your first lost, second loss or third loss.
Quit anytime you lose your 9 units. This is strict limit on losses.
Your betting rules

Rule 1: Bet only banker

Case 1

Entry trigger: Whenever you see P BB, bet banker 2 units. Then bet every banker. Do not skip bets, until you lose to player three in a row. You quit. Then start a new series. Wait for PBB again.
If lost, bet banker 3 units. If lost again bet banker 4 units. You have lost the whole series of 9 units.
This is player three in a row. You will lose to player three in a row. This is your nemesis.
You quit

Case 2

Same entry trigger PBB

Bet banker 2 units. You won. Bet banker 3 units. Banker is now 3 in a row BBB.
Rule 2: Whenver you see banker three in a row BBB, bet banker 3 units, not 2 units. This is to take advantage of long banker streak.

Do not get the next part wrong. …read slowly…….After your have lost at banker 3 units as in BBBBBP, your next bet is still banker three units. If won reduce to bet banker 2 units. If lost at three units again, increase banker bet to 4 units. If lost again execute your strict limits on losses rule. You quit.

This means you will lose to player three in a row either 2,3,4 or 3,3,4. Be clear about it

Case 3

Rule 3: If lost 2 unit, bet 3 unit. If won 3 unit reduce to 2 unit. D’Alenberg sytem. In other words, up one unit on losing, down one level on winning.

Illustration

This is taken from my log in one of my overseas trip. Unit in brackets is lost bet
2, 2, 3, 3, 3, (3), (3), (4).. quit won 3 units
(2), 3, (2), 3, (2), 3, won 3 units.
2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, (3) quit won 22 units
(2), (3), 4, 3, (2), (3), 4, (3), 4, (3), 4, (3), 4, 3, (2), (3), 4, 3, (2)…quit won 7 units (lost 10 bets, won 9 bets)

If you are not getting patterns like above, it means you have played wrongly.

You should average 5.5 units win per shoe.

Warning: This method does not work in B6 baccarat.

Analysis

This bet banker only strategy I presented is effective because banker mathematicaly wins more times. Banker wins 103 times for every 100 times that player wins.

Because each pair you make 50% (example, lose 2 units, won 3 units) while you only pay 5% commission. This gives you the theoretical edge. You are exploiting the natural bias created by the third card rules. Baccarat is the only casino game with the skewed binary distribution. The 50% pairing edge can cover the 5% commission easily.

In B6 baccarat, banker only win 96 times to player 100 times. Won on B6 is calculated as won half bet. This is casino’s counter-measures against players who won this way.

If you switch to playing player alone then banker wins 103 times, player wins 100 times, no more 96 to 100. Figure it out yourself.

You win all alternating loss-win, meaning you win 75% of the bets.

I have never lost with this system when I play as tourist overseas. I won an average of 5.5 units over every 60 bets. However, you should be mentally prepared for variance. You can lose for one whole month. Conversely, you can also win six months in a row. Make sure you have the bankroll to cover you through. In addition, make sure you do not go on gambling tilt.

This method is ideal for short term recreational gambling as tourist.

If you are not clear email me at soondr@gmail.com

Subscribe to free gambling courses click here

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Free Gambling Courses

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Free Gambling Courses

Why subscribe to free gambling courses, gamblinghelp blog and email list

Gamblinghelp can help you in

1. Recreational gambling

2. Professional gambling

3. Quit gambling.

You can start at any point but you have to learn all because they are related.

1. Recreational Gambling
I sub-categorize recreational gambling into

(i) recreational gambling for beginners or

(ii) advanced recreational gambling.

For beginners or starters or newbies, you are most probably exploring the games and you ‘do not know what you are doing’.
Therefore, the most important point is to protect yourself. I have posted ten articles on money management for beginners to help you get started.

For advanced recreational players, you will learn how your belief system affect your playing style. Your belief system generally fall within these three categories. You are either a lady luck player, system player or action player. Or, a combination of these three elements.

You will learn how to differentiate between myths and facts. How casino win your money. How players lose.

You will learn the basic properties of random numbers.

You will go through lady luck, its pro and cons and how to use them for short term play.

You will go through systems, up as you lose, up as you win and flat bets and how to use them for short term play.

You will go through money management action and how to use them for short term play.

You will learn to understand why they are flawed for long term play and what to do about it.

In other word you learn the theory of gambling.

2. Professional gambling
Why professional gambling?

The problem with gambling is that it is both a vice and a scam.

So, if you are a successful professional in gambling, it also means that you have succeeded in handling gambling as a vice and a scam.

In other words, you have succeeded in handling life (living skills), in relationships, in human emotion and most important of all in money. Your spirit of sportmanship is top-notch, meaning you can handle win-lose situation with relative ease. Yet come out ahead.

You will have the skills to analyse highly complex situations in games and life.

What do you receive?

You will also receive training material to learn how to play professionally.

Professional gamblers explore ways to beat the casino in their own games.

In the zero sum game, the casino method of taking commission is very effective over a large number of bets.

Professional gamblers know that under normal playing conditions the game is unbeatable.

Professional gamblers know this secret that the casino do not want you to know.

So, where are all these gambling professionals. The majority of them are professional poker players. Get to know them.

3. Quit Gambling

Unfortunately the majority of the players who aspire to become professionals end up in the mum’s basement.

You are advised to have a complete plan before you get started.

You are advised where to seek counselling and help.

You will see how in quit gambling, I target the core areas of the gambler’s belief system.

For example,
a compulsive gambler may believe that ultimately a successful sytem or holy grail will be found (system player)
a compulsive gambler may believe that finally lady luck has to come (lady luck player)
a compulsive gambler may belief that “if only I have much bigger capital, I would be able to win” (action player)
All these are flawed beliefs sytem and casino management will do whatever they can to perpectuate your flawed belief system.

Conclusion
Finally, you will learn that positive expected value is the key to long term success. Positive expected value is the key to beat randomness as a vice and a scam. In other words, you must have a mathematical edge to play professionally like one million hands.
The best part of my teaching….. it is free and will always be.

Subscribe to free gambling courses Click here

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