Smart chasing of losses in a negative expectation game is a concept very little known and badly dealt with by gamblers.
I have described it in my earlier post that for smart chasing of losses to work:
1. player must start by winning
2. that smart chasing of losses is a short term strategy
3. that short term is defined by process not by time.
4. that the method is not scalable because winning is based on ‘not encountered’.
AD represents a player who start by losing. You can see what happen. The player will never catch up under normal playing conditions
AH represents a player who starts by winning. You can see from the chart that the casino odds can easily catch up with him.
How long it takes for the odds to catch up with him is defined by process not time. It depends on whether the player succumb to casino counter-measures as well as his variance if he continue playing.
This is one secret that all successful professional gamblers know but ordinary players do not.
Now, you understand why I say all games with negative expectations are unbeatable long term. As such, they are not suitable for professional gambling.
To play professionally you need to find spots with positive expectation. There are plenty of such spots in professional poker.
Professional poker is my number one recommendation.
The second best is sports betting.
The third best is casino tournaments
The fourth best is casino promotions
The fifth best is card counting in blackjack
The sixth best is tie bet in baccarat towards the end of the shoe.
The seventh best is bet banker only in 5% baccarat.
The eight best is top spinning dice in crabs.
The ninth best is bias wheel in roulette
The tenth best is smart chasing of losses as a short term strategy.
So, the above are the ten tips for professional gamblers
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11. I like the inspiring statement made by a Singaporean. So I post it here:
“I agree with the position that to help gambling addicts, one must help them become better gamblers. Once they understand gambling theory, the smart ones will leave gambling for good or small trips, the not-so-smart ones become living examples of their recklessness/arrogance/stupidity.”
12. Once they become better gamblers, they can easily quit with pride and dignity.
13. The not-so-smart-ones will need help to quit gambling.
Gambling anonymous organizations, trained counsellors and psychiatrist and
my gamblinghelp project can help them to quit gambling.
click here to subscribe to my free gambling courses:
You have to be clear on the above because I am going to post a series of articles illustrating how our professional forefathers beat the casino based on these principles of the gambling theory.
thumbnail gambling theory
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A Singaporean by the username “TheWholeBank” post a very wise comment in my thread “Any one need help in gambling” in the baccarat forums. Read slowly his comment. Do not scan. The comment is:
“I agree with the position that to help gambling addicts, one must help them become better gamblers.
Once they understand gambling theory, the smart ones will leave gambling for good or small trips, the not-so-smart ones become living examples of their recklessness/arrogance/stupidity.”
I agree that to quit gambling you have to become better gamblers. Learning to become better gambler is the way to quit gambling. Play less for recreation only is the same as responsible gambling. This is described as “small trips” by “thewholebank”
My reply was
“A wise summary.
The smart ones can take care of themselves.
The not-so-smart ones need help
Cognitive behaviour therapy is the answer.
The question is how do you know whether you are the smart ones or the not-so-smart-ones.
Compulsive gamblers got scammed by the casino for years. They have difficulty seeking help because the sucker opportunists continue to scam them to perpectuate their flawed gambling habits. Finally, they give up seeking help and cause unnecessary hardships to himself, his family and the society at large. These compulsive gamblers come from all walks of life.
“They become living examples of recklessness, arrogance and stupidity”. Thanks to his post, the smart Singaporean sincerely teaches us not to be reckless, not to be arrogant, not to be stupid.
This remind me of the book by Professor Morteimer Feinberg
“Why Smart People do dumb things.” It is an excellent book. I like it.
He concluded that a matured personality is the answer to prevent yourself from being reckless, arrogant and stupid.
The definition I particularly liked for a mature personality is based on Mortimer Feinberg’s six basic principles of maturity. (In this context, maturity means growth in emotional maturity). See how I approach these six basic principles. Again read slowly. Do not scan. Pay special attention to the first two — accept yourself and accept others.
1. Accept yourself.
Accept yourself is the most important of the six principles and the hardest to achieve. Only if you can accept yourself with all your faults then only can you accept others with all their strengths and weaknesses
2. Accept others.
When you can accept others you will realize that human beings are interdependent. You will stop being frightened at the idea of depending on others. At times we need help. People need people. No matter how smart we are, our cognitive power can carry us that far. We are unable to shoulder the responsibility of life’s multitudinous tasks.
3. Keep your sense of humour.
A sense of humour is an important adjunct of maturity. But make sure it is mature humour, not immature, sarcastic humour. It is always good to laugh off the dark side of life. Laughing off is also a good way to handle massive frustration.
4. Appreciate simple pleasures.
One of the biggest setback of life is gratification. Rich people become poor because of impulsive gratification. Gratification is a vice. Matured person takes steps to eliminate gratification from their lifestyle. As such, matured persons are always humble.
5. Enjoy the present
This gives meanings to life. Do not postpone your need for gratification. Robert Kiyosaki call this delay gratification. In my opinion, delay gratification is wrong. Matured person do not need it. Eliminate delay gratification from your matured life. Substitue gratification with enjoy the present.
6. Welcome Work
Basically, this means that your good health and education as well as your achievement in money, relationship and power do not come naturally. You have to pro-actively work at it. Therefore, a matured person must welcome work at these areas of private victory (health, education) and public victory (money, relationship, power)
If you would like to read further you can preview them at my personal-development website.
or you can email me at soondr@gmail.com
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Problem gamblers or their close ones can contact gamblinghelp for advise and assistance.
Mild cases can be handled by private email to me at
soondr@gmail.com
It is free and will always be.”
For severe cases you will need several months of counselling sessions (cognitive behaviour therapy) by trained counsellors and/or psychiatrists.
Sometimes medications are used especially in cases with suicidal tendencies.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
You can quit gambling by joining my affiliate program
I have created a business plan so that the smart ones can have the opportunity to join me in affiliate marketing. You see, I also need help from affiliates and the public who buy my ebooks through my affiliates.
You will notice in my flowchart that I cover a comprehensive package in the subject of gambling in my gamblinghelp project.
I am writing three ebooks to be sold to the public by the end of 12 months.
One ebook on recreational gambling
One ebook on professional gambling
One ebook on quit gambling
During these 12 months I am training my supporters and followers in affiliate marketing, so that they can sell my ebooks and earn commissions, usually about 50%. (This decision will be made later). Buyers cannot buy directly from me. They have to buy from any one of my affiliates. This is to protect the interest of my affiliates. Top affiliates generally earn more than US$10,000 per month after two years of hard work. Give it a try.
To start off, sign up for my free gambling courses.
I recruit my affiliate by INVITATION or RECOMMENDATION only.
However, you can preview my affiliate signup site at
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Join my free gambling courses if you want to know how I win baccarat as a tourist.
This is the method I play whenever I travel overseas as tourist. You can also use this method to play professionally.
My average win is 5.5 units per 60 hands.
Here is the system:
Play only traditional baccarat with 5% tax on banker.
The 4% tax offered in Horseshoe Las Vegas is even better.
Your money management rules:-
Bankroll: 9 units per series.
When you are still ahead by 9 units or more, you can quit anytime after your first lost, second loss or third loss.
Quit anytime you lose your 9 units. This is strict limit on losses.
Your betting rules
Rule 1: Bet only banker
Case 1
Entry trigger: Whenever you see P BB, bet banker 2 units. Then bet every banker. Do not skip bets, until you lose to player three in a row. You quit. Then start a new series. Wait for PBB again.
If lost, bet banker 3 units. If lost again bet banker 4 units. You have lost the whole series of 9 units.
This is player three in a row. You will lose to player three in a row. This is your nemesis.
You quit
Case 2
Same entry trigger PBB
Bet banker 2 units. You won. Bet banker 3 units. Banker is now 3 in a row BBB.
Rule 2: Whenver you see banker three in a row BBB, bet banker 3 units, not 2 units. This is to take advantage of long banker streak.
Do not get the next part wrong. …read slowly…….After your have lost at banker 3 units as in BBBBBP, your next bet is still banker three units. If won reduce to bet banker 2 units. If lost at three units again, increase banker bet to 4 units. If lost again execute your strict limits on losses rule. You quit.
This means you will lose to player three in a row either 2,3,4 or 3,3,4. Be clear about it
Case 3
Rule 3: If lost 2 unit, bet 3 unit. If won 3 unit reduce to 2 unit. D’Alenberg sytem. In other words, up one unit on losing, down one level on winning.
Illustration
This is taken from my log in one of my overseas trip. Unit in brackets is lost bet
2, 2, 3, 3, 3, (3), (3), (4).. quit won 3 units
(2), 3, (2), 3, (2), 3, won 3 units.
2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, (3) quit won 22 units
(2), (3), 4, 3, (2), (3), 4, (3), 4, (3), 4, (3), 4, 3, (2), (3), 4, 3, (2)…quit won 7 units (lost 10 bets, won 9 bets)
If you are not getting patterns like above, it means you have played wrongly.
You should average 5.5 units win per shoe.
Warning: This method does not work in B6 baccarat.
Analysis
This bet banker only strategy I presented is effective because banker mathematicaly wins more times. Banker wins 103 times for every 100 times that player wins.
Because each pair you make 50% (example, lose 2 units, won 3 units) while you only pay 5% commission. This gives you the theoretical edge. You are exploiting the natural bias created by the third card rules. Baccarat is the only casino game with the skewed binary distribution. The 50% pairing edge can cover the 5% commission easily.
In B6 baccarat, banker only win 96 times to player 100 times. Won on B6 is calculated as won half bet. This is casino’s counter-measures against players who won this way.
If you switch to playing player alone then banker wins 103 times, player wins 100 times, no more 96 to 100. Figure it out yourself.
You win all alternating loss-win, meaning you win 75% of the bets.
I have never lost with this system when I play as tourist overseas. I won an average of 5.5 units over every 60 bets. However, you should be mentally prepared for variance. You can lose for one whole month. Conversely, you can also win six months in a row. Make sure you have the bankroll to cover you through. In addition, make sure you do not go on gambling tilt.
This method is ideal for short term recreational gambling as tourist.
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Why subscribe to free gambling courses, gamblinghelp blog and email list
Gamblinghelp can help you in
1. Recreational gambling
2. Professional gambling
3. Quit gambling.
You can start at any point but you have to learn all because they are related.
1. Recreational Gambling
I sub-categorize recreational gambling into
(i) recreational gambling for beginners or
(ii) advanced recreational gambling.
For beginners or starters or newbies, you are most probably exploring the games and you ‘do not know what you are doing’.
Therefore, the most important point is to protect yourself. I have posted ten articles on money management for beginners to help you get started.
For advanced recreational players, you will learn how your belief system affect your playing style. Your belief system generally fall within these three categories. You are either a lady luck player, system player or action player. Or, a combination of these three elements.
You will learn how to differentiate between myths and facts. How casino win your money. How players lose.
You will learn the basic properties of random numbers.
You will go through lady luck, its pro and cons and how to use them for short term play.
You will go through systems, up as you lose, up as you win and flat bets and how to use them for short term play.
You will go through money management action and how to use them for short term play.
You will learn to understand why they are flawed for long term play and what to do about it.
In other word you learn the theory of gambling.
2. Professional gambling
Why professional gambling?
The problem with gambling is that it is both a vice and a scam.
So, if you are a successful professional in gambling, it also means that you have succeeded in handling gambling as a vice and a scam.
In other words, you have succeeded in handling life (living skills), in relationships, in human emotion and most important of all in money. Your spirit of sportmanship is top-notch, meaning you can handle win-lose situation with relative ease. Yet come out ahead.
You will have the skills to analyse highly complex situations in games and life.
What do you receive?
You will also receive training material to learn how to play professionally.
Professional gamblers explore ways to beat the casino in their own games.
In the zero sum game, the casino method of taking commission is very effective over a large number of bets.
Professional gamblers know that under normal playing conditions the game is unbeatable.
Professional gamblers know this secret that the casino do not want you to know.
So, where are all these gambling professionals. The majority of them are professional poker players. Get to know them.
3. Quit Gambling
Unfortunately the majority of the players who aspire to become professionals end up in the mum’s basement.
You are advised to have a complete plan before you get started.
You are advised where to seek counselling and help.
You will see how in quit gambling, I target the core areas of the gambler’s belief system.
For example,
a compulsive gambler may believe that ultimately a successful sytem or holy grail will be found (system player)
a compulsive gambler may believe that finally lady luck has to come (lady luck player)
a compulsive gambler may belief that “if only I have much bigger capital, I would be able to win” (action player)
All these are flawed beliefs sytem and casino management will do whatever they can to perpectuate your flawed belief system.
Conclusion
Finally, you will learn that positive expected value is the key to long term success. Positive expected value is the key to beat randomness as a vice and a scam. In other words, you must have a mathematical edge to play professionally like one million hands.
The best part of my teaching….. it is free and will always be.
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Professional players are always on the lookout for situations with positive expected value.
Surprisingly such situations can easily be found in baccarat especially towards the end of the shoe.
You will be banned if the casino staff know you are winning with it.
Here is the method:
You count every card preferably as standee. When the remaining cards are
Scenario 1
10, J, Q, K
you bet tie. A 100% sure bet. Scenario 2
When the remaining cards are 8, 9 10, J, Q, K,
only point 6,7 , 8, 9 and zero can form.
You have eliminated 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.
Bet tie. Scenario 3
When the remaining cards are 1,2,3, 10, J, Q, K
only point 0, 1,2,3,4,5,6 can form.
You have excluded 7,8,9.
Bet tie. Scenario 4
When the remaining cards are 1,2 , 10, J, Q, K
only point 0, 1,2,3,4 can form.
You have excluded 5,6, 7,8,9.
Bet tie. Scenario 5
When the remaining cards are 1, 10, J, Q, K
only point 0, 1,2, can form.
You have excluded 3,4,5,6, 7,8,9.
Bet tie. Scenario 6
When the remaining cards are 5, 10, J, Q, K
only point 0, 5, can form.
You have excluded 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7,8,9.
Bet tie. Scenario 7
When the remaining cards are 1, 5, 10, J, Q, K
only point 0,1,2, 5, 6 can form.
You have excluded 3, 4, 7, 8, 9.
Bet tie. Scenario 8
When the remaining cards are 1, 9, 10, J, Q, K
only point 0,1, 2, 9, can form.
You have excluded 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.
Bet tie.
There are many other scenarios where you have the odds. You just have to count cards. (Just like professional poker win on pot odds.)
Over here, you have the odds. Your expected value is positive.
This is the exact method professional poker players use to win.
I am sure some of my professional poker friends here will be happy to hear that positive expected value can actually be found in baccarat.
There are at least ten other methods used by professionals successfully in baccarat and other even-odds games. They are all covered in detail in my free gambling courses. Click here to join free gambling courses
Gamblinghelp can help you in
1. Recreational gambling
(i) Beginner recreational gambling
(ii) Advanced recreational gambling
2. Professional gambling
3. Quit gambling
We promote responsible gambling. Click the link below to subscribe to gamblinghelp free gambling courses.
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How I won $160,000 over 10 months playing baccarat.
I won 160k playing this method over 10 months since retirement from medical practice 10 months ago.
I played in rws and rwgenting.
In rws, I started with $25, bankroll $60k.
In rwgenting, I start with rm50, bankroll 100k.
Win or lose I increase $5 or rm5, ie
After a series of wins like www or wwlww, I usually pull back to a lower but reasonable level.
I keep one running figure of win-loss in my head (very much like counting cards in blackjack).
When wins overtake losses by a reasonable amount, I closed the session
Bet selection not really important. However, I placed bets based on bias. In others words, I bet what I think has higher chances of hitting.
Over 10 months, I won rm160,000.
Total won about 200,000
Total loss about 40,000.
Only 4 sessions of losses averaging 10,000 per session.
Net won 160,000.
I do not take small losses. I “chase”.
I take moderate losses to avoid big losses.
Analysis:
This method is superior to flat bet. I describe this method as smart chasing of losses.
Smart chasing of losses can enable you to postpone your nemesis. So, the casino is not afraid of this method because they know the odds will finally catch up with you. Your nemesis will come.
My four losses are described as follows:
• One biggest loss of 18 times in a row.
• One series of loss with 9 losses 1 win, 9 losses 1 win, 6 losses 3 wins
• One time of 60 losses 23 wins — cumulatively represented by something like 5 losses 3 wins, 3 losses 1 win, 2 losses 2 wins, 6 losses 1 wins…………..and so on.
• Collections of many series of moderate losses…..7/1, 7/1, 6/1, 5/2, 4/1, 3/1, 3/1, 4/1……..
(7/1 means 7 losses and one win)
Smart chasing of losses can postpone your nemesis because it is possible to lose 18 to 1 but not 180 to 10. Are you clear about it! This is not a holy grail because rare events will catch up with you.
Despite all these I net 160k. In the process, I earned 700 points in rws and 2000 points in rwgenting.
There are many other methods beside the one I mentioned above. Email me if you are keen to know what they are or you can just follow my blog, gamblinghelp.biz. (I’ll tweet later when I can find the time).
I stopped playing baccarat after the casino changed their rules in baccarat, only rm25 and rm50 spread, no more rm5 spread.
Then I switched over to even-odd roulette, Tai Sai, and Mini dice. Because the game is very slow I can only make 50 dollars a day, not enough for my transport, food and lodging.
So, I stopped playing and started this blog to help gamblers, gamblinghelp.biz/wp-blog/.
In this blog, I will help you to achieve what you want in gambling whether it is
• recreational gambling,
• professional gambling or
• quit gambling.
Recommendations.
• Methods of smart chasing losses cannot be used for professional play. I have described in detail one of them. There are nine others that I know of. Casinos are not afraid of you. The reason is you are playing variance. I repeat VARIANCE. Finally, the odds will catch up with you. However, if you are winning there is no harm continue playing. When you lose back, which you will, you have to stop. The odds will always catch up with you. Statistics never lie. That is why casino always love system players, action players and lady luck players. In the zero sum game, casino’s method of taking commissions, rakes or odds are always more effective than your lady luck, system and money management action players. Those who play small are known as fish and those who play big (high rollers) are known as whales.
• In baccarat, I know of two methods that can be used for professional play. You will be banned if the casino staff knows about it. Subscribe to my blog if you want to know all these. My teaching on various topics of my interest and expertise are always free and will always remain free.
(However, consultancy, professional services and selling of products and third party offers are always at market rate. If you need any assistance you may email me.)
I can help you on
• Recreational gambling
• Professional gambling
• Quit gambling
My teachings are always free! On all topics of my expertise and interest besides gambling. Terms and conditions are mentioned earlier.
thumbnail gambling help
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Learn how to beat the casinos at their own game. Amass stunning wealth online with our gambling help blogging guide!
I am wrriting a few ebooks on the subject ‘gambling‘. I start this blog in order to receive feedback, comments and opinions from the public gamblers. The ebooks will focus on three major areas:
gamblinghelp2_flowchart
1. Beginner’s Guide to Gambling
2. Step by Step Guide to Professional Gambling
3. How to quit gambling successfully.
It will cover the following topics.
Introduction
I have posted ten articles emphasizing money management for beginners. Some of you have read that.
Contrary to the teaching of the gurus, my research shows that money management is important only for beginners but not so for professional gamblers. To professional gamblers, the choice of games and spots with high odds or high +EV are more important.
thumbnail gambling help
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For thousands of years, people have been trying out their luck in the game of chance. In fact, in ancient Rome, you will see that ancient Romans have been betting on sports and spectacles, such as gladiator fights in the famous Roman Coliseum. Some famous kings and queens of Europe during the middle ages were also known to be gamblers. In fact, some were even addicted to gambling that they even nearly bankrupted their own country because of it.
Today, you will see that gambling still exists and online gambling is one of the most popular ways to try one’s luck. You will see casinos in different parts of the world, and you will also see sports being betted upon by a lot of people.
Today, online gambling is one of the most popular ways to gamble. Here, you will be able to find all sorts of gambling. You will see sports betting websites, and you will also see online gambling casinos. To start gambling online, all you need is a computer with an active internet connection, a credit card, and you are ready to sign up and place your bets. The main advantage in online gambling is that you can do it anywhere as long as you have a computer or laptop with an active internet connection. You can do it at home, in your office, and you can even do it in Wi-Fi hotspots with your laptop.
This means that you don’t need to make long distance calls to bookies or travel all the way to the casinos just to gamble. As you can see, you don’t really need to go to Las
Vegas or Atlantic City to gamble. All you need to do is have a laptop with an active internet connection.
However, there are some things that you should watch out for whenever you gamble online. First of all, you have to remember that not all gambling websites are legal or legitimate. Some may even be bogus which are only after your personal and credit card information. Always remember that when joining a gambling website, you have to make sure that it is legitimate and offers secure transactions.
Also, before you even think about signing up in gambling websites, you have to make sure that your computer is also secured from viruses and spyware software. Try installing antispyware and antivirus software in your computer. By doing so, you will be able to make sure that no one will be able to get a hold of your personal and credit card information.
And, most importantly, always remember that gambling, whether offline or online, is addictive. Money management should be your top priority. A lot of people went deep in debt because of gambling. If you want to avoid this, just remember to do this as an entertainment. Never set goals on the amount of money you have to win. You may arrive in an unreasonable goal. However, set limits on the amount you can lose. And, if you lose, and you reached your limit, stop immediately and don’t try to win back what you lost as this will potentially suck you down deeper in debt. If you win, you should also stop and treat this as a bonus.
Remember these things and you can be sure that you will have a lot more fun in online gambling and you can also be sure that you will never have to worry about getting addicted to it.
Remember, if you need gambling help or run into unexpected problems, always seek gambling help. We are friendly, approachable and more than willing to help you in your endeavour.
Gamblinghelp provide free gambling courses to help gamblers in recreational gambling, professional gambling, quit gambling.
gambling help
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Today, you will see that the latest trend in gambling is not going to Vegas or in Atlantic City, but right at the comfort of your home with your computer with an active internet connection and a credit card through online gambling websites and software.
Online gambling websites and software are so popular that you will see a lot of people joining it and you will also see that people from all over the world participate in this one of a kind gambling experience. First of all, make sure that you know how to avoid or suspect online fraud. There is no meaning in gambling if you are hit by fraud or scam.
Online gambling is a lot of fun and it can also earn you some extra cash as well. However, before you start to learn about the different strategies that you need to use in online gambling, you first need to know the rules.
If you already know about all the rules and regulations of the game, you will see that online gambling is a great way to learn how to play the different gambling games offered, such as blackjack, poker, and other popular casino games.
Always remember that you can never beat the house. The longer you stay on the table, the greater the chance that you will lose all your hard earned cash as well as the money you capitalized on to gamble with the house. You have to consider the fact that the house always wins as many gamblers fail to understand that the rules and regulations in online gambling are made by the owners.
A lot of online gamblers set unrealistic goals when gambling. Rather than set a goal on how much money you want to win in a single session of gambling, try setting how much money you can afford to lose. This way, you will be able to control your bets and also get a bigger chance of winning and earning a bit of cash whether it is little or a lot.
Practice makes perfect. Before you start betting real money, you have to understand how online gambling works. Try playing free online gambling where no real money is involved. Here, you will just be given fake credits in the beginning of the game. Although the thrill of excitement will not all be there because there is no real money involved, you will see that you will be able to understand the mechanics of online gambling.
Online gambling is a great way to spend your extra time. Also, it is a great way for you to feel the rush of gambling . However, you have to remember that you should control your bets and also know how to discipline yourself. Always set your limits on your bets and never follow that gut instinct of yours that is telling you to bet more than you can afford to lose.
Remember these tips that money management ands discipline is very important. You can then be sure that you will be able to have fun in online gambling and you will also be able to earn a bit of cash as well as minimize your losses. Always keep in mind that it is better to win a little than losing a lot.
Remember, if you need gambling help or run into unexpected problems, always seek gambling help. We are friendly, approachable and more than willing to help you in your endeavour.
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