Category Archives: Professional gambling

Understanding variance and ‘not encountered’

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Understanding variance and not encountered

This post will help you to understand the rules of variance, the concept of ‘not encountered‘, and how to use this understanding to create system bias to win in games with negative expectation.

Games with negative expectations are beatable if the casino rules allow sufficient bet spread. If you rely on ‘not encountered‘ to create system bias to win, you will win 100% of your set of series. All methods that rely on ‘not encountered’ to win require a huge bankroll to win as little as you can.

In my opinion, these methods are not suitable for everybody. It is also not suitable as a source of money. It is more to brag, show-off or self-gratification. It is more like what Neil Armstrong said when he landed on the moon, A Small Step for A Man, A Big Leap in Mankind.

The greatest drawback of this approach is that it is not scalable. It is also prone to casino counter-measures. You have to win as little as you can. I have already explained this in one of my post. Check it out.

How to win in regular casino games.

Remember, learning from this post is more important than actual playing and actual winning. It is the foundation of professional gambling.

To understand variance and ‘not encountered‘, you must have a thorough understanding of these two rules.

Rule 1 : Rule of Percentage Swing

Rules of percentage swing said that the percentage swing decreases proportional to the number of bets. In the short run, when you play very few bets, you can encounter 1 wins 18 losses out of 19 bets, or 1 win 24 losses out of 25 bets for a net loss of 17 and 23 times respectively. In terms of percentage it is 1700% and 2300%. But it is impossible to encounter 10 wins and 180 losses out of 190 bets or 10 wins and 240 losses out of 250 bets. This ratio does not happen. Losing 180 out of 190 and losing 230 out of 240 bets are not encountered. In other words, this is the concept of ‘not encountered’. As you can see, it is indeed, a very reliable concept.

Rule 2: Rules of Absolute Swing

Rules of absolute swing said that the net absolute number of loss bets increases in proportion to the increase in the number of bets. If you play flat bet 2200 times, you can encounter 1000 wins and 1200 losses, a net loss of 200 times, but only 20% out. But the absolute number of bets lost is now 200 times, no more 17 times or 23 times. In other words, the percentage decreases to a low percentage of 20%, no more 1700% and 2300% as in rule 1.

So a system that wins 40% of the even-odd bets to conclude a series will always catch up and win. I describe this as smart chasing of losses. Whenever you win 40% of the bets and lose 60% of the bets, you will conclude the series with a decent win. You will notice that win 40% of the bets and lose 60% of the bets is 50% out. You will also notice that between rule 1 and rule 2 the absolute swing goes from 17 and 23 to 200, and the percentage swings drop from thousands (1700% and 2300%) to 20%.

To create system bias to win in gambling, your methods must be able to handle the problem areas in both rule 1 and rule 2 with ease, yet come out with decent wins.
First, you have to define your target percentage. I find winning 40% of the bets is optimal and more balanced play. You conclude your series whenever you win 40% of the bets. However, you can target any other number like 35% or 45%.

You will also notice that when you play cancellation methods, you will usually conclude many series with relative ease, then suddenly come one problem series. Your goal here is to play a set of six series simultaneously so that the problem of the problem series will be passed over to the easier series when you re-balance the scale every now and then. You will continue to do this until you win 40% of the bets. When that happen, you conclude your series with win goal achieved.

When enough bets are made, the win-lose ratio always gravitate towards 50%, so you will always get your 40%. Fourty percent is ideal for decent wins because for every set of 50% win-lose you will win 10% minus casino odds. However, the number of bets you take to win will vary depending on the percentage of bets that you win. If you win 55% of the bets, you will win with fewer bets. If you win 45% of the bets, you will take longer and win with more bets.
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Here are the four methods that satisfy both rule 1 and rule 2 for a 100% win.

1. HP Johnson Guaranteed System satisfied the criteria for rule 1 and rule 2

http://www.gamblinghelp.biz/wpblog/?p=310

2. Arthur Irwin Bruce Midas Touch System also satisfy the criteria for rule 1 and rule 2

How The Late Arthur Irwin Bruce was Barred from the Five Largest Casinos in the UK:

How to modify labourche system to create system bias to win in gambling

3. The classical Monte Carlo roulette system also satisfy the criteria for rule 1 and rule 2. Remember I use this system to win $160,000 over 10 months. I will elaborate more on this in a separate post.

Smart Chasing of Losses: How I win $160,000 over ten months

4. I have also modified the fibonacci system to win $1000 over 2000 bets playing $10 baccarat machine in Resort World Sentosa, Singapore. The win rate is 50 cents per bet. I will elaborate more on this in a separate post.

You can also combine a number of systems that synergize with one another.

KEY POINTS

1. Games with negative expectations are beatable if the casino rules allow sufficient bet spread.
2. You must understand rules of percentage swing and rules of absolute swing before you can understand the concept of not encountered.
3. It is possible to create system bias to win 100% of the series in games with negative expectation
4. HP Johnson Guaranteed System and Arthur Irwin Bruce Midas System are known historically to beat games of negative expectations.

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How to modify labourche system to create system bias to win in gambling

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Labourche System

Labourche system by itself is a bad system. It is a losing system. In a nutshell, you start off with any series of numbers.

For example, 1,2,3 or 1,1,1 or 1,1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4.

You bet the sum of the first and last numbers. If lost, you add the number as a single number at the end of the series. If won you cancelled off the numbers. When you have cancelled all the numbers you win the series. You will win the series whenever you win 34% of the bets. However, the weakness is the string can get very long and the numbers get very big. These two factors cause the labourche system to fail.

I have adapted labourche system by taking three numbers instead of two. I always take the first, last and middle numbers. If won I cancel off the three numbers. If lost I split the numbers into two and add them at the end of the string.

For example, my string is

1,1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4,5,5

I will take the first, last and any middle numbers and bet 1+5+3=9. If won, the string becomes

1,1,2,2,3,4,4,5

If lost the string becomes

1,1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4,5,5,…4,5

After losing the three numbers, I play two numbers the first and any middle number. If won I go back to three numbers. If I win the three numbers I continue to play the three numbers until the series is cleared. If I lose the three-number bet, I play the two-number bet. If lost I play one-number bet. If won the one-number bet (always the first number) I play three numbers, not two numbers. The idea is to slow down losing streak and make sure that recovery is fast. In order to prevent the first number getting too large, I always split the first number into two numbers whenever the first number is three units or larger.

For example, after playing some time the series becomes

3, 5, 7, 9.

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1,2, 5, 7, 9

This modification gives a much better result than pure labourche but still not enough to win. You will win if you win 40% of the bets. In my opinion 40% is the magic number. After deducting the casino odds, you still have a decent win.

Let’s assume you push it up to 50%. Fifty percent is actually flat bet. Let’s now assume that you flat bet. At 50% win-lose, you will lose the odds, so you need to win about 55% in order to have a net win. Nobody has achieved this feat of winning more times consistently based on the random theory. The display chart in baccarat and roulette is random theory.

Biased wheel in roulette or card counting is not random theory. Historically, you have seen professionals making a fortune from exploiting biased theory. Now, is it possible to create bias using system. I want you to think about.

If you play labourche system mechanically, you are creating bias for the casino, in favour of the casino not you. When you play labourche system mechanically, you will lose out of proportion to your modest wins in addition to the casino odds. Indeed, a big loser.

Is it possible to reverse it. Think about it!

Norman Leigh taught it is possible to create playing system to reverse the system bias in favour of the player. So, he played reverse labourche as documented in the book “Thirteen Against the Bank”.

Modern casino realize that it is possible for players to win out of proportion to their modest loss, so they cap it by setting table limits. By doing that, your occasional big win out of proportion to your modest win is no longer a win due to system bias but rather due to a typical jackpot win where the casinos still enjoy the odds.

Let’s assume now you escalate on winning. When you escalate on winning, you lose all alternate bets. You will lose even if you win more times, even when you win more than 50% of the bets because the casino also take your highest stake. You win only if the way go your way.

I have perfected this labourche system such that you will win 100% of the time. Subscribe to my 10 day gambling course if you are keen to know how I do it. Just key in your name and email in the subscription form in your top right. You need to verify by clicking the link in your email because it is a double optin autoresponder.

labourche system

labourche system


FURTHER DISCUSSION ON GAMBLING TILT

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FURTHER DISCUSSION ON GAMBLING TILT

You can’t beat the casino if you have immatured personality. You need to train yourself to acquire the necessary matured personality to beat the casino. Stop gambling if you have an immatured personality. Casino is a dangerous place full of potential hazards. Authorities have good reasons why persons under 21 years of age are not allowed to enter the casino. You can use the tools in my personal-development website to assess your personality maturity level.

Here are the practical ways you can use to handle gambling tilt. Your have to outline your gambling plan on the actions you would respond to gambling tilt.

1.Simply Quitting

In your gambling plan, you have to decide ahead under what scenarios or situations you will quit.

Simply quitting is the best way to ensure that you are not going to tilt. The problem with this remedy is that it is very hard to put into practice. When you are losing money, the last thing that you prefer to do is quit while you are down. The more immediate reaction is to attempt and recover the losses. While this gambling behaviour is normal, it is important to recognize it as a pre-tilt behaviour. The reason is you are perpectuating the bad habit, and your pre-tilt behaviour will one day become a full blown tilt.

Gamblers who go on crazy tilt would end up losing lots of money out of proportion to their modest wins in the long run. Losing in your tilted play will make you even more angry, which is again only going to add fuel to the fire.

2. Switch Games

Another popular way for gamblers to minimize the effects of gambling tilt is to switch games. For a poker tournament gambler, it wouldn’t exactly make sense to go to a cash game table when you are on tilt as this would be expected to only add to the pre-existing losses. If you are a poker cash game gambler, you may move to a much lower stake. However, you may very well play differently once you realize that the money won’t be easily won back through a few fortunate double ups. Taking yourself out of the poker game limit where you can potentially win back your money will also mean that you are also out of the situation where you are prone to tilt. If you prefer, you can even move to the absolute lowest limit games and just go crazy. You can take your bankroll down to lowest limit games until you feel comfortable to play optimally.

3. Learn relaxation techniques.

The principle is when your physiology changes your state of mind automatically follows.

So, breathe extremely slowly, as slow as you can. When you breath this way, it is impossible to be angry. Slow breathing force your physiology to relax. The first thing to do is take a slow deep breath. Breathing gets more oxygen to the brain and will help clear up your thinking. It is the first thing you are taught if you have ever tried any form of meditation or deep relaxation exercises. It is very simple and can be done right at the table or slot machine where you are playing. Take in a deep breath through your nose. Preferably, practise alternate nose breathing for balance. Breath in through the left nose and breath out through the right nose and vice versa. Also, make sure you use the abdominal muscles to breath. This is to ensure diaphramatic breathing. Hold your breath while counting to four. Slowly exhale through your mouth. Count to six as you breath out. Repeat this four times.

And remember this is only a temporary solution. Next, you have to identify the trigger.

4. Taking a Break

Taking a break is another good option when you are trying to eliminate the gambling tilt.

Taking a break does not mean that you should simply take a short walk and then simply return to the table. Though you may attempt to trick yourself into thinking otherwise, a short break will not eliminate the tilt from your game. If anything, a minor setback in your first few hands can put you into full blown tilt. Taking breaks can reduce tilt, but you need to be careful that you must never cut the break short. The duration of break should be long enough for the tilt to resolve completely. You should be away from the casino for a period of time until you have got rid of the urge to deviate from optimal play.

5. Go For a Walk

If deep breathing does not calm you, get up, leave the table or slot machine and take a walk around the casino. If the walk does not soothe you, go to the rest room and wash your face and hands with cool water. If you are still feeling upset then you should take a longer break. Go get something to eat or drink. Sitting down to enjoy a cup of coffee or a soft drink can help you to relax. You should avoid drinking anything alcoholic when you are upset. If that doesn’t work then quit for the day. If possible, go home.

6. Duration of stay (Alternative activity)

The length of your stay at the casino matters. If you are only on a day trip you have the option of just going home and putting an end to your losing day. If you cannot leave or want to stay at the casino, you have to plan ahead all the alternatives when you feel you are on the verge of tilting.

CASE STUDY

Everyone knows that the casino has the edge on most games and the house will win in the long run. However, in the short term luck will be a big factor in determining whether you win or lose. This is true of games that have positive expectations as well as games with a high house edge. When you visit the casino you stick to the games where you have the edge but like every other gambler, you are at the mercy of the Lady Luck.

Let’s study this case based on a true story.

Amy went on a ten days casino vacation. Unfortunately, Lady Luck abandoned her. She spent the next five days living every gamblers nightmare by losing every session she played. She tried baccarat, roulette, blackjack, video poker, Texas Holdem, slots and even entered a number of tournaments. Nothing would work and by the fourth day she was literally talking to herself as she watched her bankroll dwindle. She felt as if she was going to succumb to gambling tilt.

TILT

Going on tilt is the expression used when poker gamblers become upset and lose control of their emotions. Consequently they start making poor decisions and play badly and irrationally. Going on tilt is not confined just to poker gamblers. Anyone who gambles on any casino game can find themselves on tilt. Once a gambler starts losing money, they become vulnerable to tilt. They have lost money and they try to make it back quickly by raising the size of their bets or playing a higher denomination slot machine. This will usually just lead to more losses.

A classical casino scene is when a gambler get to the point where they just don’t care how much money they have lost. A gambler may be down a few hundred dollars and then figure “What the heck does another hundred matter?” It will matter a lot the next day to most gamblers but at the spur of the moment they will just blow good money after bad.

SOLUTION

Take a Day Off. Time to cool off is the best antidote to gambling tilt. If you are visiting the casino for several days as she was, you don’t have the option of going home but that does not mean you have to stay in the casino and gamble. She knew that she had to get away from the gambling for a while. After four days of losing she decided to do something different.

The next morning she went sightseeing around town. Later that day she bought a book and read it at the hotel poolside. She had a nice dinner that night and then went to see a show before turning in. As she got into bed she reflected on the fact that she had spent a whole day of her casino vacation without making a single bet. It did wonders for her mental health. She actually had an enjoyable day and found a way to relax during her prolonged losing streak. The next day she awoke refreshed and was looking forward to playing one more session before heading to the airport to fly home. She lost!

She remember hearing that winning is easy but losing brings out the true character in a person. How you handle adversity is a true test of you inner strength. Sometimes you just need to know when to throw in the towel and quit. “He who fights and runs away, lives to fight another day.”

That’s what she chose to do. The casino will still be there on my next trip and maybe Lady Luck will even join me next time. However, this trip she learned that she could handle a prolonged losing streak and although she was beaten, she wasn’t defeated. She had lost the battle but not yet the war.

ANALYSIS

Generally, poker is considered by most gamblers as a game of skill. However, you must also remember that the luck factor can affect the outcome in a small or big way. It is important to learn to deal with the variance due to luck factor. The ability to handle variance comes from a good gambling plan couple with consistent practice as well as good habits and conditioning.

During the poker game you can be affected by various elements, which can cause us to lose concentration on the game or can get us feel uncomfortable, or even lead us to an altered state or stressed, and sooner or later, the tilt will be inevitable. All gamblers must know these causes since this can help them better manage their emotions. If a gambler is able to recognize his emotion before it gets out of control, this will be the first step towards combating the tilt phenomenon.

However, we are not always prepared to face all odds in the game. And the problem behind tilting is a very basic one. Human minds are attracted to the good and avoid or drawn away from the evil. This create a very imbalance mental state such that human minds become skilful at handling the good but extremely unskilful at handling the evil.
While it is true that tilt may be a bad thing for a poker gambler, there is also a positive side to this and it is tilt can be used to our advantage as a powerful tool to defeat other gamblers. The reason is most gamblers do not know this secret that human minds are extremely unskilful at handling the evil. In gambling situations the evil refers to gambling losses.

A useful technique but little known is to talk to your opponents. The goal is to make them lose concentration, or simply to research them and anticipate their next moves, making them go on tilt.

Gambling tilt is the greatest enemy of your bankroll in gambling. Discipline by itself does not work. For discipline to work, you must have a gambling plan against gambling tilt.

To summarize

1. Gamblers need to have a matured personality to handle gambling tilt.
2. The practical methods of simply quitting, switch games, relaxation exercises, taking a break, go for a walk and alternative activity are very effective because changes in physiology spontaneously changes your state of mind.
3. Discipline works only if gamblers have a gambling plan against gambling tilt.
4. A gambling plan and matured personality is necessary to prevent gambling tilt.

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If you would like to read further, these books are strongly recommended.

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HOW PROFESSIONALS STAY OFF GAMBLING TILT

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HOW PROFESSIONALS STAY OFF GAMBLING TILT

Basicaly, an effective method to handle gambling tilt is to alter both your mindset and your actions.

Your mindset:

First and foremost, you have to understand why gamblers tilt. Secondly, you have to understand why you tilt. The classic theory of KNOW THYSELF is very important here. KNOW THYSELF refers to self awareness. In other words know your psyche. Religious people generally have a better understanding of self awareness because their religion teaches them. If you have problem in this area my personal development minisite can help you.

My two previous posts on social science theory of gambling tilt as well as the psychodynamic theory of gambling tilt would provide sufficient information for you to learn how to stay away from tilt. Academic research findings can explain why gamblers tilt, but it is only half the battle. You have to work proactively on the other half. Saying it and doing it are two different things.

Next you have to take action to handle gambling tilts. Some gamblers need to take not just action but massive action to handle gambling tilts.

Read again these two posts if you are still confused. Professionals have successfully used these theories to change their mindset to stay away from gambling tilt.
A matured personality is the key to handling gambling tilt. People with matured personality are much less prone to gambling tilt. Check put the definition of a matured personality that I use.

To summarize, these three elements of social science theory of gambling tilt, the psychodynamic theory of gambling tilt and the matured personality would help you to stay off gambling tilt. You would then be able to make wise decisions at the spur of the moment even under the harsh casino environments . You would also be able to plan your gambling sessions wisely and execute them with optimal play without tilting.

Your action:

Now that you have the right mindset, it follows that you have to plan ahead for the common casino scenarios. That is, if this happen I will do this, If that happen I will do that. If scenario one, two, three, four, five happen, I will respond with appropriate actions.

HOW TO ELIMINATE GAMBLING TILT FROM YOUR OWN GAME

Here are five examples to show you how to handle gambling tilt so that the terrible gambling tilt does not blow your bankroll. Let us assume you are playing poker.

SCENARIO 1

Your long term gambling plan

YOUR MINDSET: Make a molehill out of a mountain. Try to think of poker as one very, very long game that lasts your entire lifetime. The pauses between to eat, sleep, make friends and so on are just breaks in the game. Taken in isolation, one losing hand, no matter how bad it is, in a lifetime of play is no big deal.

YOUR ACTION: Just accept that as part of the intermittent setback in your long term plan. Accept setback as essential part of your long term gambling plan. Matured personality is of utmost importance here. Check out what is a matured personality.

SCENARIO 2

Remember that you were ahead when the money went in. So what if your opponent hit a lucky river and beat you?

YOUR MINDSET: That opponent would not be able to hold on the money for long.

YOUR ACTION: Focus on keeping cool and winning it back again.

SCENARIO 3

If you were not ahead when the money went in

YOUR MINDSET: You thought you were ahead but you were not

YOUR ACTION: Do not hold grudges against your opponent because it is hardly his fault.

YOUR MINDSET AGAIN: Accept that going through a bad prolonged losing streak is part of gambling. A good example of this is when you flop a set and somebody has a higher set. It hurts, but it happens.

YOUR ACTION: Keep taking breaks to cool down and resolve your conflict.

SCENARIO 4

There is no such thing as a perfect poker gambler.

YOUR MINDSET: Remember that when you feel like venting your fury at a lucky winner.

YOUR ACTION: Don’t get thought block. Think about the reverse scenario. Try to remember all the times you beat somebody with a similar lucky shot. We all have our share of good luck and bad luck.

SCENARIO 5

What if all else fails.

YOUR MINDSET: Just laugh it off. Just imagine that there was nothing so terrible in your life that you could not sort it out.

YOUR ACTION: Take a break. Congratulate yourself that you have a second chance. Work proactively to correct your mistakes, if there is any, so that you can do better the next time.

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My next post is : FURTHER DISCUSSION ON HOW TO STAY OFF GAMBLING TILTS.

If you would like to read further, these few books are strongly recommended.
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GAMBLING TILT PART 1

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GAMBLING TILT PART 1:

Why gamblers tilt

After starting this blog, I was a little surprise to learn that too many gamblers are unable to win despite learning from my posts and my personal emails. A very important reason I have singled out is gambling tilt. At least ninety percent of the gamblers are unable to handle gambling tilt. You cannot win money from the casino if you are unable to handle gambling tilt, even if you have learned the best strategy from me. Unfortunately, literatures on how to handle gambling tilt are very scarce . Whether they are baccarat tilt or poker tilt, the fundamentals are the same. You can find some well researched information on tilts in poker literature.

Tilt is a diifficult subject for do-it-yourself learning because the psycho-dynamics of tilts is abstract, complex, highly personal and the nature of tilt is highly specific to each particular game. Tilt covers chasing of losses, but tilt is not the same as chasing of losses. You can go into tilt in any casino game, not just roulette, baccarat, poker and slots.

Tilt comes under gambling behaviour. The discipline of social science is therefore the authority in gambling behaviour. In social science, the research methodology has always been one or more of these three basic methodology: grounded theory, ethnography and narrative readings.

Casino makes the most money when gamblers go on tilt. During tilt, the gambler’s wager rise substantially from low to moderate to high. At high stakes, commission takes away lots of money although the percentage remains the same. The gamblers begin to play out of proportion to their bankroll. This inevitably leads to failure in money management.

In this post I will define tilt as simple as possible, just reckless play. During tilt, the gamblers demonstrate gross negligence in their playing style. When you tilt, it also means you are reckless and negligent. Smart chasing of losses within your gambling plan is not tilt. When you deviate from your gambling plan, that is tilt. Similarly, irresponsible chasing of losses is tilt.

Tilt may very well be the primary reason why you lose money when gambling. Even if you are a winning gambler, tilt may still be a reason why your win rate is not as high as it could otherwise be. Many gamblers will openly admit that they have a problem with tilting. Other gamblers will say that they never tilt. They are probably telling lies or they do not understand what is meant by tilt or their definition of tilt is different. In fact, every gambler tilts, some tilt more than others. So, it is the degree of tilt that make a difference.

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Handling gambling tilt is much easier said than done. It is not a problem that can be fixed immediately. You can’t just tell yourself to stop and have it be done. It is a problem that is going to take a lot of time, effort, self-restraint and conditioning to truly get yourself immune to tilt. A lot of gamblers, even the majority, will never put forward enough effort to control their tilt, which simply means that they will never end up playing with as much emotional control as they really should be.

Gambling becomes a problem when gamblers go on tilt too often. Problem gamblers are characterized by tilting rather than chasing. Usually, when gamblers go on tilt they lose lots of money. Gamblers can go on tilts ranging from minutes to days and even months.

The next post is social science theory of tilt. Understanding this theory will help you to eliminate gambling tilt, so that you will make more money.

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If you would like to read further this book is strongly recommended.

The Mental Game of Poker: Proven Strategies for Improving Tilt Control, Confidence, Motivation, Coping with Variance, and More.


Review of Thirteen Against The Bank by Norman Leigh.

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Review of Thirteen Against The Bank by Norman Leigh.

In this book “Thirteen Against The Bank” published in 1975, now out of print, it was said that Norman Leigh led his team of twelve players use a gambling system to break the casino bank in Nice.

In the early days, the casino system was such that when the table lost all the money to the player, that table will lay a black cloth signifying the player has broken the bank.

What Norman Leigh attempted to prove was that it is possible to win out of proportion to your loss. In other words, lose small and win big.
So, he used a method known as reverse labourche.

If you have never heard of labourche system, I will explain it here.

Labourche system is also known as split martindale. It is played this way.

You can start with any series of numbers. For example

1111
1234
1123
1122
111222333

Each time you bet the sum of the first and last numbers. If you win you cancel off the numbers. If you lose, you add the bet number at the end of the string.

Let us say we start with

1123
Our first bet is 1+3=4. We bet 4units. If won our string becomes

12. Now we bet 3. If won we have won our series of 7 units. If lost, the string becomes

123.

We continue playing until we win the series or lost our bankroll.

Norman Leigh figure that rare events cause the player to lose out of proportion to their modest wins. So, he reversed it. Hence the name reverse labourche.

In reverse labourche, when we win, we add the number. When we lose we cancel the numbers. We end our progression when we hit the table limit.
Although Norman Leigh won during his trip it was subsequently proven that his method is flawed. It is possible to win short term due to variance, just like striking a jackpot. Overall, it is not a winning system.

Theoretically, it is possible to break the bank if the casino do not have table limits. Because super rare events will create powerful exponential bets to break the bank.

However, all casinos know this crucial part of the gambling theory. They cap on table limits so that the casino odds will always work for the casinos but against the gamblers.

Thirteen Against the Bank

thumbnail gambling help

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Negative Expectation Games Versus Positive Expectation Games

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Negative expectation games versus positive expectation games.

Whenever I present any system with negative expectation, I always got attacked by fellow players.

Sure, all system with negative expectations are vulnerable. In fact, extremely vulnerable.

This is the reason why I always recommend games or situations with positive expectations.

With positive expectations helping you, the winning mechanism is so stable and powerful.

If the game has positive expectation, you start off with the lowest limit. The positive expectation will help you to make the money.

Then you move up one level. If you start by losing, your positive expectation will come to your rescue.
Then you move one level up again.

All games with negative expectations are not suitable for long term play. You cannot play the same way like above. You have to hit and run.

However, you can manipulate it in certain way such that losing streak is not encountered.

Allow me to make this hypothetical assumption: This is very important. Bear with me until you read twice.

Look at this martindale series.

Please do not attack me. I am trying to explain hypothetically the concept that NOT ENCOUNTERED is different from HOLY GRAIL.

1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128………….up to 26 times

Assuming it is possible to play this way. Then you can assume that you are unlikely to lose in a lifetime of play.

If say, ten thousand players play this way, then it is very likely that one will lose in a lifetime of play.

THIS HYPOTHESIS ILLUSTRATES THE MEANING THAT LOSING STREAK IS NOT ENCOUNTERED.

Now, we take a look at the problem with this system.

When you lose 26 times in a row your loss is way out of proportion to your win.

And when you win, you win a miserable one unit at a time.

So, how do you optimize this martindale string such that you will not lose way out of proportion to your win
and your win is not a miserable one unit at a time.

All professional methods dealing with smart chasing of losses all uses this aspect of optimization.

You just have to follow my blog. Slowly I will illustrate one system after another the concepts used by professional until you become crystal clear about this concept.

Back to our martindale numbers. In order to optimize, we want to do this.

When we win we want our unit to be higher not one unit.
When we lose we want our large numbers to be much smaller.
And we also want to maintain that we do not need to hit more times to win, just like in martindale.

Then next step, how to optimize such that we get the scenario with these three elements.

HP Johnson has done a good job.

By fixing an optimal string,

5 5 5 5 5 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45

we can start off by losing 31 times followed by 7 wins and we won 430. Ratio of 4.4 loss to one win. Amazing. This method of play does not have the problem of martindale yet has the power of martindale.

And our high stakes is never high because we split the number when it gets too high. If we are hit by adverse run at this point, our string gets longer and longer. That means we keep splitting our numbers into more numbers.

When there are many numbers like 50 numbers, distribution gives you enormous power to weaken the effect of extreme adverse run. You get the best of both worlds.

Adverse runs can never get you, yet you have the power of martindale.

This is the reason I ask you to try out the 50 numbers string at home to feel the effect for yourself.

You need only 25 hits to close the string irrespective of the number of losses.

1111111111 4444444444 4444444444 4444444444 4444444444

total= 170

If you try at home you will notice the following:

1. it is very much like flat bet but superior to flat bet

2. You will also notice that it is not necessary to close the string. As long as you have reasonable profit you can drop the string anytime you like.

Take a rest then start a new series.

A powerful and smart method to chase your losses.

WARNING: THIS METHOD IS FOR PROFESSIONALS ONLY.

Email me at

soondr@gmail.com

if you have any question

HP Johnson System

thumbnail HP Johnson System

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How I won US$350 despite losing 31 times

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How I won US$350 despite losing 31 times.

I did not lose 31 times in a row. In one of my tourist trip, I started by losing quite badly, won 24 bets, loss 55 bets, but end the series with US$350 profit.

The method I use is adapted from HP Johnson Guaranteed System
The saying is if you have never heard of this system you are not a professional.
The principle behind it is so powerful that all professionals must know.

I have never lost 31 times in a row. My maximum number of times of straight loss in a row is 18.

HP Johnson said this method can handle extreme adverse run even if it is 31 times in a row.
He guaranteed the system because he said the losses were not encountered.
He said the worse adverse run he had encountered was three days in a row before winning streaks overtake the losses.

Let’s explore HP JOHNSON Guaranteed System further:

HP JOHNSON used it successfully in international casinos throughout the world.
He started by explaining why players lose.

“Adverse run causes players to lose out of proportion to their modest win.”

The above statement was mentioned by Chase. However, HP Johnson said the same thing.

HP Johnson guaranteed the system but he wants 10% of the profit of your winnings.

The strength of this system is that the system can withstand extreme adverse run like 31 times in a row, yet come out ahead.
Losses were not encountered. The worse he had encountered were losses three consecutive days in a row before winning streak come on the fourth day.

In my opinion, this method also falls within the category I classify as “Smart Chasing of Losses”.

He uses a method called fixed string. You can start with any string of 14 numbers or even 50 numbers. However, HP Johnson invariably starts with this string of 14 numbers. He says this is more balanced.

This is the string he used.

5 5 5 5 5 5 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45

There are five “5s” and nine “45s”

You take the first number and the last number.

If won you cancel off the first and last numbers.

Since there are only 14 numbers, seven wins will conclude your series with US$350 win, irrespective of the number of losses. I repeat

SEVEN WINS WILL CONCLUDE YOUR SERIES WITH US$350 WIN, IRRESPECTIVE OF THE NUMBER OF LOSSES.

You have to get this clear before you continue.

Each time you lose you distribute the numbers into the scale. The idea is to keep stakes low and take on extreme adverse run.
This is what happens after your first loss. The first column is your starting string. The second column is after you distribute the numbers into the scale.

5
5
5
5
5 10
45 50
45 50
45 50
45 50
45 50
45 50
45 50
45 50
45 50

Then you bet 55 (first number and last number). The first number is 5 not 10. The last number is 50. Lost again. Your log is now like this.

5 10
5 10
5 10
5 10
5 10
45 50
45 50
45 50
45 50 55
45 50 55
45 50 55
45 50 55
45 50 55
45 50 55

Then you bet 65 (first number plus last number). Lost again. Your log is now like this.

5 10 15
5 10 15
5 10 15
5 10 15
5 10 15
45 50 55
45 50 55
45 50 55
45 50 55
45 50 55
45 50 55
45 50 55 60
45 50 55 60
45 50 55 60

Then you bet 75. (bet first plus last number). You lost. You add 5 into each number, meaning you distribute the scales to keep stake low.

5 10 15 20
5 10 15 20
5 10 15 20
5 10 15 20
5 10 15 20
45 50 55 60
45 50 55 60
45 50 55 60
45 50 55 60
45 50 55 60
45 50 55 60
45 50 55 60 65
45 50 55 60 65
45 50 55 60 65

Your next stake is now 85. Remember bet first plus last number. You lost again.

5 10 15 20 25
5 10 15 20 25
5 10 15 20 25
5 10 15 20 25
5 10 15 20 25
45 50 55 60 65
45 50 55 60 65
45 50 55 60 65
45 50 55 60 65
45 50 55 60 65 70
45 50 55 60 65 70
45 50 55 60 65 70
45 50 55 60 65 70
45 50 55 60 65 70

Your next stake is now 95. You lost. Now you distribute the scale. Add 5 to each number starting from the bottom. Do it yourself. Continue to do this for the next few losses and see what happens.

Now what if you win. Each time you win you cancel off the first string and the last string.
You only need seven hits. You only need seven hits to close the series and you win US$350. This is irrespective of the number of losses you encounter.
Sounds great! So you break the bank. No, there is a catch.
The catch is how HP Johnson split the scale, rebalances the scale and creates virtual partnership play.
So, you continue to split and rebalance the scale until winning streaks overtake the losses.

If you have any questions, or if you would like to learn how to split the scale, re-balance the scale, create virtual partnership play and bankroll requirements, email me at

soondr@gmail.com

My teaching is always free and always will be.

This is how HP Johnson handles the catch.
When there are four strings left, he split the scale whenever the numbers exceed 80 (or 16 units)
For example, now you have

80
80
80
80

The scale will be split into

— 40
— 40
80 40
80 40
80 40
80 40
— 40
— 40

This is to keep stakes low in the event of adverse run
When there are two numbers left he split the scale whenever the number exceeds 150 or 30 units.
If you look at the table above, you will find that eight numbers with 40. So, HP Johnson rebalances the scale.

— 40 15
— 40 15
80 40 15
80 40 30
80 40 40
80 40 55
— 40 55
— 40 55

You should be able to handle these after some intensive practice. In fact, HP Johnson plays three pairs of partnership in all three even odds game in roulette.
I have modified it for baccarat play. I found partnership play is not necessary in baccarat.
Email me at

soondr@gmail.com

if you need further information

My teaching is free and will always be.

Gamblinghelp can help you in

1. Recreational gambling

2. Professional gambling

3. Quit gambling

Subscribe to Free Gambling Courses at

Free Gambling Courses

For clearer presentation click the pdf file

I want to see the chart in pdf

HP Johnson system

thumbnail HP Johnson system

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Ten Tips for Professional Gamblers

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Ten tips for professional gamblers.

Smart chasing of losses in a negative expectation game is a concept very little known and badly dealt with by gamblers.

I have described it in my earlier post that for smart chasing of losses to work:

1. player must start by winning
2. that smart chasing of losses is a short term strategy
3. that short term is defined by process not by time.
4. that the method is not scalable because winning is based on ‘not encountered’.

Now, you click this pdf file to see the chart.

Smart Chasing of Losses Flowchart

Study the chart carefully in this context:

AB is a horizontal axis, no odds.

AC is casino odds.

AD represents a player who start by losing. You can see what happen. The player will never catch up under normal playing conditions

AH represents a player who starts by winning. You can see from the chart that the casino odds can easily catch up with him.

How long it takes for the odds to catch up with him is defined by process not time. It depends on whether the player succumb to casino counter-measures as well as his variance if he continue playing.

This is one secret that all successful professional gamblers know but ordinary players do not.

Now, you understand why I say all games with negative expectations are unbeatable long term. As such, they are not suitable for professional gambling.

To play professionally you need to find spots with positive expectation. There are plenty of such spots in professional poker.

Professional poker is my number one recommendation.
The second best is sports betting.
The third best is casino tournaments
The fourth best is casino promotions
The fifth best is card counting in blackjack
The sixth best is tie bet in baccarat towards the end of the shoe.
The seventh best is bet banker only in 5% baccarat.
The eight best is top spinning dice in crabs.
The ninth best is bias wheel in roulette
The tenth best is smart chasing of losses as a short term strategy.

So, the above are the ten tips for professional gamblers

If you have any question email me at

soondr@gmail.com

To learn more subscribe to

Free Gambling Courses.

It is free and will always be:

smart chasing of losses

thumbnail gambling help

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Gambling Theory Can Help You Become Better Gamblers

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Gambling Theory Can Help You Become Better Gamblers

If you have been following my blog as well as my post in baccaratforums,
you will roughly understand my mindset and how I approach the casino games.

To summarize for the benefit of those who have not been following:-

1. I remind the public that baccarat is unbeatable long term because the expected value is negative. See my definition for ‘unbeatable’.

2. That positive expected value in baccarat can be found in the tie game especially towards the end of the shoe. This can be used for long term play.

3. That lady luck, systems and money management action are garbage for long term play.

4. That short term is different from long term. It is defined by process not time.

5. That it is possible to turn lady luck, system and money management action into your friend by devising a short term strategy.

6. An example of a short term strategy for tourist play is my bet banker only strategy in 5% baccarat.

7. The method that I used to win 160,000 over ten months is an example of a short term strategy.

8. Smart chasing of losses is an example of short term strategy. For it to work, players must start by winning.

9. Positive expected values can easily be found in professional poker. 10% of long term poker players are winners.

10. Collectively all the concepts mentioned above can be summarized as gambling theory.

click here to subscribe to my free gambling courses:

Free Gambling Courses

11. I like the inspiring statement made by a Singaporean. So I post it here:

“I agree with the position that to help gambling addicts, one must help them become better gamblers. Once they understand gambling theory, the smart ones will leave gambling for good or small trips, the not-so-smart ones become living examples of their recklessness/arrogance/stupidity.”

12. Once they become better gamblers, they can easily quit with pride and dignity.

13. The not-so-smart-ones will need help to quit gambling.
Gambling anonymous organizations, trained counsellors and psychiatrist and
my gamblinghelp project can help them to quit gambling.

click here to subscribe to my free gambling courses:

Free Gambling Courses

You have to be clear on the above because I am going to post a series of articles illustrating how our professional forefathers beat the casino based on these principles of the gambling theory.

gambling theory

thumbnail gambling theory

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